The comedian Robin Williams used to say that Canadians were the kindest people in the world but had the misfortune to be living in a lovely apartment above the unruly inhabitants of a meth lab.
Never has this gag felt more pertinent than today, as this country famed for its politeness confronts a potentially existential crisis with Donald Trump, restored to the United States presidency, demanding their submission to join the United States.
“I know these are dark days – brought on by a country we can no longer trust,” said former Bank of England governor Mark Carney on Sunday after winning the Liberal Party leadership contest that ensures he will become Canada’s 24th prime minister.
FILE PHOTO: Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney waves next to his wife Diana Fox after winning the race to become leader of Canada's ruling Liberal Party and will succeed Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister, in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, March 9, 2025. REUTERS/Blair Gable/File Photo
Mark Carney with his wife Diana Fox (Photo: Blair Gable/Reuters)
“The Americans want our resources, our water, our land, our country. If they succeed, they will destroy our way of life.”
But the big question is whether this untested politician can save liberal Canada by fending off the threats from both Trump and the populist Conservative Party of Canada – who were running away in the polls after 10 years of Justin Trudeau until this crisis exploded.
That stark victory speech – from a cerebral banker who steered his country through the 2008 financial crisis and then helped guide Britain through Brexit turbulence – might have sounded unduly alarmist. But this was not simply cheap political hyperbole to win attention for a new leader, stirring up supporters ahead of a challenging electoral battle later this year.
For Canadians are deeply shaken by the shocking turn of events following Trump’s restoration to the White House, with almost two thirds of citizens admitting they are afraid for the future as the US President makes constant jibes about “the 51st state”.
‘People are considering if we need to be nuclear-armed’
“We are badly rattled,” says Stephen Maher, a columnist and biographer of Trudeau. “People are quietly discussing if we need conscription. In the political world, people are considering if we need to be a nuclear-armed state. At grassroots level people are having conversations about what would happen in event of an US invasion.”
As Maher admits, such talk sounds fantastical – the idea that tensions could explode into conflict between these two prosperous democracies that share the world’s longest land border. Yet Trump, surrounded by slavish loyalists, is displaying disregard for democratic norms in his second coming as President – and his term in office is still only in its infancy after two turbulent months.
Following the imposition of hefty US tariffs on some Canadian goods, Trudeau warned that Trump wanted “a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that’ll make it easier to annex us.”
He added: “The excuse that he’s giving for these tariffs today of fentanyl is completely bogus, completely unjustified, completely false.”
FILE - U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau talk prior to a NATO round table meeting at The Grove hotel and resort in Watford, Hertfordshire, England, Dec. 4, 2019. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein, File)
Donald Trump and Justin Trudeau talk prior to a Nato round table meeting in the UK in 2019 (Photo/Frank Augstein/AP)
This claim reflects the US President’s response before inauguration – when asked if he was planning military means to take over Canada – that he would use “economic force” to achieve his imperialistic goal.
Constantly belittling the prime minister by calling him “Governor Trudeau”, Trump seems to be casting his covetous eye on Canada’s wealth of natural resources such as oil, gas, timber, diamonds and potash.
He reportedly told Trudeau that he wants to revise their border on the basis that their 1908 demarcation treaty was invalid, and to revisit their shared management of the Great Lakes. It is claimed also that his aides are discussing Canada’s removal from the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance, which includes Britain.
‘The ground has shifted beneath the feet of Canadians’
As we have seen with Trump’s brutal treatment of Ukraine, anything is possible with this disruptive President. And as some Canadian commentators point out, in the way Trump dismisses the legitimacy of Canada as a sovereign nation, there are disturbing echoes of Vladimir Putin’s bogus claim that Ukraine is really Russian.
“The ground has shifted beneath the feet of Canadians,” says Janice Stein, founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, at the University of Toronto. “Of course it is crazy – but so was Putin’s attack on Ukraine.”
A Canadian soldier takes part in a cold-water immersion exercise near Yellowknife, Northwest Territories (Photo: Sebastien St-Jean/AFP)
Stein believes the best way to understand this unprecedented economic warfare between two democracies is through the prism of 19th-century imperialism: “The conversations are mercantilist and resource-focused.”
She adds, however, that Canadian officials have a duty to prepare for the worst: “It is the subtle provocations that would put our government in a very difficult situation.”
One journalist told me he woke up to the seriousness of this threat after talking to an official in Washington, who voiced fears that Trump might stage a Donbas-style stunt in Alberta, the province known as “the Texas of Canada” for its oil and conservatism. “He sounded scared,” said this journalist.
‘The problem is Trump is an unpredictable maniac’
No wonder people are nervous. “There is no way that we as Canadians would ever bow down to Trump,” says Anastasia Cywink, 59, a special education teacher. “But I worry for my grandkids – it’s so unpredictable with Trump holding so much power.”
Or as sales manager Avery Jones, 35, put it to me when we talked in the buzzy, if chilly, city of Toronto: “The problem is we know he is an unpredictable maniac. The commentary about the 51st state is not in jest. There is malicious intent behind it.”
Dark days indeed.
Such is the concern that an academic paper examining how the country might resist American military assault – written by an Afghan-born professor of politics at University of Toronto – received 400,000 online hits in just one day.
“Trump is delusional if he believes that 40 million Canadians will passively accept conquest,” wrote security expert Aisha Ahmad. “A military invasion of Canada would trigger a decades-long violent resistance, which would ultimately destroy the United States.”
Handout photo provided by the Ministry of Defence of King Charles III visiting HMS Prince of Wales as the Royal Navy finalises preparations for a major global deployment to the Indo-Pacific this spring. Picture date: Tuesday March 4, 2025. PA Photo. King Charles flew to the flagship in the Channel during the closing stages of her intensive training before she sets sail across the world to Japan on a mission that will deepen the UK's defence partnerships and promote security and stability. It's the first time in nearly 40 years that a reigning monarch has visited a Royal Navy warship at sea, underlining the importance and scale of the deployment the Portsmouth-based carrier will lead in just a few weeks' time. Photo credit should read: PO Phot Rory Arnold/Ministry of Defence/PA Wire
King Charles III visiting HMS Prince of Wales in the English Channel this week – he made a point to show his Canadian decorations (Photo: PO Phot Rory Arnold/Ministry of Defence/PA)
She added that this combative concept might shock many Canadians but their self-image of “niceness” only existed due to peace. “War changes people very quickly – and Canadians are no more innately peaceful than any other human beings.”
And bear in mind that Canada’s head of state is King Charles – who signalled his support for the country last week by holding a meeting with Trudeau, then wearing Canadian military decorations on his naval uniform the next day.
A 2023 poll by the Angus Reid Institute, shortly after the King’s accession, found a slim majority of Canadians did not want to continue with a constitutional monarchy. “If he gets this wrong, it will be the end of the monarchy in Canada,” said one analyst.
This is the challenging backdrop as Carney, 59, an Oxford-trained economist and Everton fan, finally achieves his ambition of becoming Canadian prime minister – despite being the epitome of despised Davos Man in this age of populism.
Anastasia Cywink Toronto Canada Image via Ian Birrell
Anastasia Cywink in Toronto: ‘There is no way that we as Canadians would ever bow down to Trump’ (Photo: Ian Birrell)
Yet such is Trump’s uncanny ability to upend things around the world that Carney’s party – 24 points behind the rival Conservatives in polls at the end of last year – has almost closed this gap in wake of all the bellicose threats from the White House.
The Liberals looked crushed under Trudeau, with real incomes falling, the cost of living rising, housing costs soaring, immigration surging and healthcare struggling. Two thirds of voters felt it was time for change and claims that “Canada is broken”, by pugnacious Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, were hitting home.
But now Poilievre – who rose to prominence off the back of trucker protests against vaccine mandates, mimicked Trump’s attacks on “woke” policies and won praise from Elon Musk – is wounded by charges that he is too close to the enemy.
After a surge in patriotism, Poilievre hastily changed his slogan to “Canada First” – and started questioning his rival’s loyalty to their country amid a row over Carney’s role in shifting a Canadian investment company’s headquarters to New York.
Most Canadians do not know much about Carney except that he was a banker – but they seemed initially to warm to him as he converted a 21-point deficit in party leader satisfaction ratings into a 16-point lead. “People seem to like what they see,” says Greg Lyle, president of Innovative Research Group.
But as Lyle points out, Canadian politics is forever haunted by Kim Campbell. Their first female prime minister seemed to have revived her party after taking over from a loathed predecessor – only to lose all but two of their seats in the 1993 election.
The Lake Ontario shoreline with the Toronto skyline in the background (Photo: Mike Campbell/NurPhoto)
And the company’s latest data, released on Tuesday, shows Carney almost level-pegging with Poilievre after a slide in his ratings, reflecting the volatility that is tormenting Western politics.
Carney hopes voters will back him due to his calm reassurance and experience at navigating difficult situations. “Everything in my life has prepared me for this moment,” he said after winning the leadership. Yet he is not a natural campaigner and will be tested in debates by Poilievre, an MP for more than two decades.
There is, however, just one overwhelming issue confronting this country: how to defend themselves from Trump as he unleashes at the very least a trade war with 25 per cent tariffs that, if fully implemented, might lead to the shedding of 600,000 jobs.
‘I feel terrible for the American people’
Canadians have responded with defiant fury: booing the US anthem at sporting events, sweeping Tennessee whiskey and Californian wine off shelves, cancelling holidays in Florida and boycotting American burger bars.
Leading this charge is Doug Ford, the populist premier of Ontario, who removed all American brands from the Liquor Control Board of Ontario – which claims to be the world’s biggest alcohol retailer with its monopoly on sales in their biggest province – and imposed a 25 per cent surcharge on electricity being sent to 1.5 million US homes.
“I feel terrible for the American people, because it’s not the American people who started this trade war. It’s one person who’s responsible. That’s President Trump,” said Ford. “He’s coming after his closest friends, closest allies in the world – and it’s going to absolutely devastate both economies.”
Avery Jones Toronto Canada Image via Ian Birrell
Avery Jones: ‘The commentary about the 51st state is not in jest. There is malicious intent’ (Photo: Ian Birrell)
Doug Saunders, columnist at Canadian newspaper The Globe and Mail, and a veteran foreign correspondent, tells me he has seen around the world how easily tensions between nations can spiral out of control.
“It is the most absurd thing that I am saying but yes, I worry there could be some kind of US military attack on Canada. I’ve seen how small events trigger violence, how angry people or an authoritarian leader can make events tip over.
“I do not think Trump has some grand strategic plan to invade Canada, or even really to engage in permanent economic warfare. But this is our only topic of conversation here, it is all-consuming – everyone is very angry at the US.”
‘It’s taken Trump’s hostility to make us stand together’
Saunders adds that this has been an unprecedented moment of Canadian unity – while several others mention to me their sorrow that it took Trump’s hostility to make the country see its frailties and stand together.
Ironically, if Canada were ever to join the United States, its liberalism would tip the balance of power heavily against Trump’s Republicans. And I have met one young lawyer in corporate finance here who supported the President’s idea of annexation.
Sidney Crosby of Canada shakes hands with Matthew Tkachuk of the USA after Canada defeated their rivals – to the joy of Canucks everywhere – and won the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off in Boston last month (Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty)
The problem for Canada, however, is that it has an ice cap to the north, oceans on both sides and the world’s still-dominant superpower to the south, which accounts for almost two thirds of its trade and has suddenly turned into an aggressive bully.
And as one insider said, Canada underinvested in defence for decades because its only fear of military attack came from Russia over the Arctic – a scenario it presumed would have led to savage retaliation from their US allies.
So for all the bold talk of diversifying trading partnerships and boosting defence spending – which lags badly behind other Nato nations – the cards are stacked against the country and Carney if events turn nastier.
Certainly if the new Liberal leader is to win the election, he must campaign against both Poilievre and Trump – who is likely to become even more hostile in response.
Carney has a fight on his hands to save Canada’s polite brand of liberalism – and no one is making jokes now about their unruly neighbour.