In choosing Jeddah in Saudi Arabia as the location for Tuesday’s high-octane US-Ukraine talks for a possible ceasefire with Russia, President Donald Trump may have signalled the same line of thinking – influencing oil-rich Qatar and Egypt to mediate between Israel and Hamas – that is, in prompting the Arab countries to accept significant mediating roles, much to the chagrin of US’s traditional allies in Europe.
Understandably so, as US-Europe relations is at its worst in recent times, particularly after the onset of Trump 2.0 and also because Saudi Arabia is the leader in the Muslim world with somewhat of a challenge being posed by Iran, the US’s bugbear.
At Jeddah on Tuesday, America was represented by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz while the Ukrainian side had Andriy Yermak, top aide to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and Defence Minister Rustem Umerov.
After the meeting, President Trump, in his trademark abrupt style, announced on Tuesday evening in Washington, D.C.: “Ukraine ceasefire, just agreed to it a little while ago. Now we have to go to Russia, and hopefully, President (Vladimir) Putin will also agree to it. People are being killed in the cities as things explode throughout the cities. We want to get that war over with.”
A joint statement said the US will immediately lift its suspension on intelligence sharing and military assistance to Ukraine.
But that is where the problem begins as Russia may have already smelt victory and would have no reason to accept a ceasefire at this stage.
### **Four reasons why Russia may not accept ceasefire with Ukraine**
First, Russia is on a serious offensive with military and territorial gains, most recently during a three-day offensive in Kursk. It has no legitimate reasons to back off to a ceasefire deal now as it would only mean a breather to the weary Ukrainians. And a breather to Kyiv at this point of time would mean an opportunity to regroup and re-energise which will work to the detriment of Russia strategically and tactically.
Secondly, Europe’s military industrial complex, the key supporter of the counter-offensive to the Russians, is in a depleted state. To tide over the disarray, the European Commission has proposed to set up a 150-billion euro ($157.76 billion) fund to majorly rearm Europe as it no longer seems sure of US support against Russia. The money will focus on air defence, missiles and drones and is part of a bigger package that could garner 800 billion euros for the European military buildup.
Thirdly, since the beginning of 2025, despite the ongoing war, the Russian economy is witnessing a resilient surge with rising stock value, unlike in Europe where major stock markets are heading southwards, with the economies too in a spot of crisis. It implies that the fragility of western economies at this point of time is far more than that of the Russian economy.
Fourthly, a main military aim why Russia embarked on this war in Ukraine in the first place, was to gain a land corridor to Transdniestria, a Russian separatist enclave in Moldova. That aim has not been achieved yet.