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Why is the Arsenal Set Piece Oasis drying up fast?

Stoke City emerged as trailblazers in the Premier League by exploiting the fine margins and becoming renowned at set-piece efficiency. Under the tutelage of Tony Pulis, Stoke became a powerhouse in terms of long throw-ins, free kicks, and corners, studying their opponents’ defensive setups and taking advantage of their weaknesses. They maximized their tallest players’ aerial prowess and fired in powerful inswingers into the box, and more often than not, they would convert from close range.

It wasn’t pretty, but it was certainly effective: between 2008 and 2013, Stoke City scored 43.1% of their Premier League goals from set-pieces (excluding penalties). The defining moment of Stoke’s dead-ball expertise came on November 29, 2008, when rather than kicking the ball out for a throw-in and allowing Rory Delap to work his magic, Hull City goalkeeper Boaz Myhill decided to boot it out for a corner kick.

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One decade after Stoke’s pioneering set-piece success, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal became the latest team to work their magic from dead-ball situations. During the 2023/24 season, Arsenal scored 16 goals from corners, matching the all-time Premier League record set by Oldham (1992/93) and West Brom (2016/17). Whilst they narrowly missed out on the title to Manchester City on the final day, they nevertheless topped the league charts for set-piece goals (20) and shots from set-pieces (202). Under the tutelage of set-piece coach Nicolas Jover, Arsenal were not only able to make the most out of attacking set-pieces, but they were also able to prevent other teams from scoring set-pieces.

“When you look at the number of goals that Arsenal are scoring from set-pieces this season, it shows you that having a set-piece coach who’s solely responsible for focusing on defending and attacking set-plays can be very useful for any team,” stated Atlético-CP manager Nikola Popović.

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Nikola Popović.

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Nikola Popović.

“As soon as they go up for a set-piece, you can tell that Arsenal believe they are going to score, and this is very important for each team. They are a constant threat and are the best team in the world right now when it comes to attacking dead balls,” added Popović.

For a while, it seemed that Arsenal’s set-piece skills were their get-out-of-jail-free card. We saw this on full display on December 4, when they edged Manchester United 2-0 courtesy of set-piece goals from defenders Jurriën Timber and William Saliba. Even Pulis himself could not help but heap praise on Arsenal, stating on BBC Radio 5 Live Sport: “I think the quality of corner kicks that Arsenal provide people to attack is absolutely fantastic. Arsenal are attacking the spaces in between the zonal markers and everyone is on the move. As Arsenal are showing, [set-pieces are] such an important part of the game. It is something that is coming more into fashion with teams up and down the country having set-play coaches. It has taken everyone a while to work it out, but it looks like the penny has dropped!”

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Praise and a warning from Pulis

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Praise and a warning from Pulis

And yet, it would appear that the magic has finally run out for Arsenal’s set-piece heroics. Arsenal faced United on Sunday in the return fixture, eager to pile onto United’s misery. Having conceded a Premier League-high 13 goals from corners across all competitions, it seemed that United were in for a long day at the office. Instead, Arsenal failed to find a way past United despite attempting nine corner kicks. Had it not been for Declan Rice’s individual goal-scoring heroics, they would have succumbed to a 1-0 defeat at Old Trafford. The Gunners registered just two big chances and struggled to put André Onana under pressure in their 1-1 draw in Manchester, and as such, they sit 15 points behind league leaders Liverpool with a game in hand.

Arsenal have failed to score from a set-piece in their last 11 matches in all competitions. For a team that scored 12 goals from set-pieces in their first 21 league fixtures, they’ve since gone seven league matches without a set-piece goal. And with 10 matches remaining, they sit fifth in the Premier League for shots from dead ball scenarios – nearly half of last season’s tally. It brings the question: why has Arsenal’s seemingly limitless well of set-pieces suddenly dried up?

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No Saka no party?

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No Saka no party?

For one, injuries. Arsenal have been deprived of their most creative playmaker in Bukayo Saka, who has served as the club’s chief attacking talisman and facilitator and whose incisive corner kicks always seemed to swerve past the opposing defenders and into the path of a teammate. Despite not playing a single minute of football since December 21, Saka boasts twice as many league assists (10) as the next-best Arsenal player – five of those coming from the corner flag. Moreover, the Gunners have also been without key attacking outlets in Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus as well as defender Ben White. White and Havertz’s physical fortitude and aggression helped to disrupt the rival defense, distract opposing defenders, and provide the time and space for other players to take advantage, and both players’ absences have been sorely felt recently.

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Dark arts missed

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Dark arts missed

The other reason is basic mathematics. The Law of Averages states that over a large number of trials, the outcomes of a random event will tend to even out, and the average result will closely match the expected probability. Whilst Arsenal were able to deviate from the average during an elongated period of time under Jover and Arteta, it is only natural that they have regressed to the mean with so many key players unavailable. Team analysts and set-piece coaches of opposing teams are now doing their homework and catching onto Arsenal’s patterns, studying their ability to congest numbers around the back post and then disperse in different directions. They are finding new ways to neutralize them and take the sting out of Arsenal’s set-pieces, and they are wising up to the fact that zonal marking may not be the smartest solution against Arsenal. Moreover, the quality of the deliveries has gone down due to Saka’s injury, whilst the quality of the players attacking those crosses has also suffered an exponential decline.

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Arteta and Nicholas Jover have less tools to work with.

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Arteta and Nicholas Jover have less tools to work with.

In order to avoid suffering a fifth straight trophyless season under Arteta, Arsenal will need to do the impossible and win their first-ever UEFA Champions League trophy. They have all but confirmed their spot in the quarterfinals after demolishing PSV Eindhoven 7-1 in the first leg, but to get past Real Madrid or Atlético Madrid and advance to the quarterfinals, they will need their #7 to get back to full fitness as soon as possible.

As opposed to their Champions League rivals, Arsenal don’t have an elite-level goal scorer like Harry Kane or Kylian Mbappé or Mohamed Salah or Robert Lewandowski who can bang in the goals on a consistent basis. However, if they can find a way to restore their set-piece aptitude, they might just be able to make a genuine challenge for European football’s ultimate prize.

Zach Lowy

Chief editor of Breaking The Lines, and writer for Coaches’ Voice, PSG Talk, BetUSTV, FotMob and many more….

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