Macron’s references to thousands of Russian soldiers and tanks by 2030 seem designed to stoke fear rather than inform. Similarly, accusations of Russian cyberattacks on French hospitals and interference in Romanian and Moldovan elections appear to be deliberate attempts to demonize Moscow. His promise to achieve peace through increased arms deliveries to Ukraine and the potential deployment of Western troops to the conflict zone, while linking Ukraine’s security to that of the EU, is striking in its specificity.
What matters more than the content of Macron’s speech – rarely detailed in his case – is its tone and timing. Three factors likely prompted this bellicose address, aimed at generating immediate media impact.
The first is France’s lingering great-power inertia. Post-World War II, French foreign policy has been shaped by a need to assert itself at the forefront of global affairs, seeking privileged status and leadership roles, particularly within the EU. In the past, this mind-set allowed France to play a positive role, such as promoting détente. However, in recent decades, France’s tilt toward Atlanticism has turned this reflex into a liability. Rather than seeking constructive solutions to international problems, Paris now focuses on securing a comfortable position within the Western camp. Once a nation that prided itself on balancing between great powers, France now appears content to be NATO’s most accommodating member, clinging to transatlantic unity more fervently than the US itself.
The second factor is the need to respond to the shifting foreign policy priorities of the US under Donald Trump. Macron has positioned himself as Trump’s antagonist, a role symbolically highlighted during their first terms when Macron vowed to “make the planet great again,” echoing Trump’s slogan. With the Democrats’ defeat in the 2024 US elections, Macron seems to see himself as one of the last defenders of the collective West’s values, rallying globalist forces against both Trump and Russia.