SINGAPORE – The rapid population growth in Hong Kah North SMC triggered major electoral boundary changes in western Singapore, with PAP stronghold Jurong GRC carved up into neighbouring constituencies.
The distribution of these voters could shore up support for the ruling party in the new GRCs, which take in previously hotly contested wards in the region, said political observers.
They noted that the boundary changes would impact two constituencies where two opposition parties made significant inroads into at the last election - the current West Coast GRC and Bukit Batok SMC.
However, they also caveated that the PAP’s strong performance in Jurong - it was the PAP’s best-performing GRC in the past two general elections - also depended on the opposition they had faced and the candidates fielded.
“So it’s not a given that a particular area or estate will always pull very strongly for the PAP,” said Mr Terence Ho, adjunct associate professor in practice at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
The PAP narrowly won West Coast GRC with 51.69 per cent of the vote against the Progress Singapore Party (PSP) team led by former PAP stalwart Dr Tan Cheng Bock.
In Bukit Batok, the PAP’s Murali Pillai secured 54.08 per cent of the vote to beat Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) chief Chee Soon Juan.
The Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) has recommended redistributing the 132,272 voters from Jurong GRC across four constituencies.
Mr Ho said this could strengthen the People’s Action Party’s performance in constituencies that have absorbed parts of Jurong GRC.
The new five-member Jurong East-Bukit Batok GRC will have 142,510 voters, absorbing 62,424 from Jurong GRC, along with parts of Bukit Batok SMC, Yuhua SMC, and Hong Kah North SMC.
Another 41,404 voters from Jurong GRC will move to the newly formed West Coast-Jurong West GRC, which will have 158,581 voters, including residents from Jurong West and Taman Jurong.
The newly carved-out Jurong Central SMC will have 29,620 voters, drawing 25,668 from Jurong GRC and the rest from Yuhua SMC. Meanwhile, 2,776 voters from Jurong GRC will shift to Holland-Bukit Timah GRC, which will now have 122,891 voters.
Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) senior research fellow Gillian Koh noted the EBRC does its work in a politically neutral fashion.
But the new boundaries could improve the PAP’s prospects in the new constituencies, given the “strong political capital” that the party has in the former GRC and Yuhua, she said.
While the opposition has made significant headway, observers noted that the region has historically been dominated by the PAP.
Singapore Management University law don Eugene Tan said: “On the whole, it can be argued that the changes appear to benefit the ruling party but it should be borne in mind that the PAP has turned in strong performances in the western half of the island – which is notable for the absence of Workers’ Party interest there.”
A key figure in Jurong GRC’s success was President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who served as an MP there for over two decades starting in Taman Jurong in 2001 before stepping down in 2023 to run for president.
Under the new boundaries, this ward along with parts of Jurong Spring will merge with West Coast GRC and be renamed West Coast-Jurong West GRC. It will remain a five-member constituency.
**Taman Jurong’s move bolsters PAP in West Coast**
Prof Tan said that it is a fair assumption that Taman Jurong could provide very strong support to the PAP in the new West Coast-Jurong West GRC.
He said: “The PSP will see their prospects affected negatively. They would rather not have Taman Jurong in the GRC, put simply.”
He added that the inclusion of Jurong Spring strengthens National Development Minister Desmond Lee’s position as the likely anchor of the new constituency.
Mr Lee previously represented the ward as an MP for Jurong GRC for nearly a decade before moving over to West Coast in 2020.
Dr Mustafa Izzuddin, a senior international affairs analyst at Solaris Strategies Singapore, contended that the PSP’s prospects of winning in West Coast-Jurong West GRC have been “arguably reduced”.
Still, the opposition party’s continued efforts in the area since the last election have set the new constituency up for a close fight, observers said.
IPS Social Lab adjunct principal research fellow and academic adviser Tan Ern Ser said the PSP has “stepped up their game” since 2020.
**Jurong East-Bukit Batok GRC: new PAP stronghold?**
The folding of Bukit Batok SMC into the new Jurong East-Bukit Batok GRC means the SDP will now have to send in a team instead of a single candidate if it wants to continue contesting the Bukit Batok area, said independent political observer Dr Felix Tan.
He noted that the newly formed constituency will also likely field leaders such as Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu, whose Yuhua SMC will also be folded in.
The individual parts of Jurong GRC have done well in past elections, noted research fellow at IPS Social Lab Dr Teo Kay Key.
She added that she believes that the new GRC will be “quite the stronghold” because of this.
However, this is contingent on which opposition party contests the GRC, and who is fielded, she said.
Given the shifts in the boundaries, the PAP will have to rearrange the current line up of MPs in its constituencies, said Dr Teo.
The PAP team has, since the last election, lost its West Coast GRC anchor S. Iswaran, who resigned in January 2024 following a corruption probe. The former transport minister was later jailed.
IPS’ Dr Koh said the PAP will have to field good candidates to plug the gaps left by Mr Tharman and Iswaran.
“The choice of anchor ministers will be yet another important part of the strategy and in this case, there are Ministers Desmond Lee and Grace Fu and Minister of State Rahayu Mahzam to play that role.”
Dr Teo added the results at the ballot box will also depend on what the contests eventually look like, and who and how many opposition parties contest in the new constituencies.
She said: “Traditionally the opposition contesting would have a higher chance of getting higher vote share if it was just a two-way contest.
“There is a chance of votes for the opposition (vote) being diluted if we see three- or four-way contests, especially if they are the better known parties like PSP and SDP.”
\- Ng Wei Kai is a journalist at The Straits Times, where he covers politics. He writes Unpacked, a weekly newsletter on Singapore politics and policy.
\- Hariz Baharudin is a correspondent at The Straits Times covering politics.
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