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Why Leeds United cannot afford to make fairytale Kalvin Phillips transfer error this summer

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The YEP understands reports suggesting a 'verbal agreement' to reunite Phillips with his boyhood club are at this stage premature.

Leeds United have been linked in recent days with a sensational transfer to bring Kalvin Phillips back to Elland Road this summer.

A permanent transfer for the 29-year-old England international this summer still appears somewhat unlikely due to the finances involved in any likely deal.

Phillips signed life-changing terms on a six-year contract with Manchester City back in the summer of 2022, rumoured to be worth £10 million per season, after leaving Leeds for £42 million.

Since then, he has struggled to hit the heights he managed whilst a United player and has subsequently dropped out of the England reckoning. An ill-fated loan spell at West Ham United did little to resurrect his international career and this season, Phillips has spent the campaign at Portman Road with Kieran McKenna's Ipswich Town, who find themselves in the bottom three and headed for a return to the Championship.

Whilst a fairytale Elland Road comeback scratches a sentimental itch, the logistics of a deal to bring Phillips back to Leeds are complicated.

He has three years left on his Man City contract and even though the Premier League champions are most likely willing to part company for good this summer, they are not in the business of giving freebies or handouts to rival teams, which Leeds may prove to be next season, at least in terms of top flight membership.

It has been suggested a deal in the region of £20 million might be enough to prise him away from the Etihad Stadium, but this hardly represents value for money on a player who has made little impact and played not a great deal of football since leaving Elland Road, especially when Leeds have proven there are alternatives in Phillips' position, like Ao Tanaka, available for a fraction of the price.

If Leeds are to survive in the top flight next season - assuming they continue on their current trajectory and rejoin the Premier League elite - they must follow the example set by the likes of Nottingham Forest, AFC Bournemouth, Brighton and Hove Albion and Brentford. The club must execute their player trading professionally, intelligently and limit the number of signings who fail to make an acclimatise at Elland Road.

The financial challenge facing Leeds United and all newly-promoted teams

The gap between English football's first and second tiers is daunting but there are numerous teams who have traversed it in recent seasons, even if the last six to be promoted all appear as though they are headed back from whence they came.

Forest, for example, spent just north of £30 million on Callum Hudson-Odoi, Anthony Elanga and Chris Wood as well as a more significant fee on Morgan Gibbs-White; the four of whom make up their Champions League-chasing attack this season. Admittedly, there have been others who did not hit the ground running quite in the same vein as the aforementioned quartet and the Midlands' club's PSR-related points deduction did almost cost them their top flight status, but their player trading is not a blueprint but more of a rough guide. Nevertheless, Forest's front four under Nuno Espirito Santo cost less than the Premier League's annual central distribution payment of £95 million.

Brighton and Brentford are perhaps the greatest examples of what Leeds must aspire to become, trading smartly, maximising player sales and replacing them with cheaper alternates who are developed, sold up the footballing food chain, allowing them to cherry-pick from lesser sides. There is little room for sentimental additions to the tune of £20 million at these clubs now, never mind when they were new additions to the league.

Leeds' last promotion saw the club 'front load' investment into the first transfer window as the likes of Robin Koch, Diego Llorente, Raphinha and Rodrigo all joined the club. The following summer, after finishing ninth, United failed to consolidate by making further ambitious signings and ultimately never recovered. An ailing squad creaked during 2021/22 before buckling entirely in 2022/23.

Newly-promoted clubs must maintain momentum in the transfer market over several windows, working up to their allowed Profitability and Sustainability threshold, constantly evolving their squad, because with the riches on offer in the Premier League, rivals are doing exactly that.

Does Kalvin Phillips now fit in at Leeds United?

Then, there is the argument that Phillips wouldn't necessarily win a place in this current Leeds side. United named Ethan Ampadu, the 24-year-old international, as their club captain last summer and are committed to the Welshman for the foreseeable future. He is Daniel Farke's chosen 'deep six'. After that, the German has Ilia Gruev and Tanaka whose skillsets suit the function Farke wishes to see carried out in that area of the pitch.

There is no doubting Phillips played the best football of his career at Elland Road but there is no guarantee he could rediscover that form, as he approaches his 30th birthday later this year. Furthermore, what in the last three years of limited minutes suggests he would perform better in a role where, personnel-wise, Leeds' squad appears at its strongest?

The Premier League doesn't care for narrative or sentimentality. As Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich have found this year, it will send you packing.

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