It’s been an up-and-down season at Newcastle United so far, featuring a few highs, plenty of frustration, lots of inconsistency and recent injury and suspension setbacks.
However, Monday’s win at West Ham has the potential to be a turning point. It certainly felt like that as we dug in for a vital three points and Bruno Guimaraes gave it large in front of the away end after Eddie Howe reacted to the win like a man who knew its huge importance.
The Carabao Cup Final comes next, but after that is the run-in. Our final 10 games of 2024/25 and the chase for European football, where we appear to have an advantage on several of the chasing pack.
Third place Nottingham Forest have good run-in, strengthening their position for top-five finish, but Newcastle’s final 10 fixtures look considerably better than European rivals Chelsea, Brighton and Aston Villa.
As shown by Opta’s Fixture Difficulty table below, Newcastle’s next four games are against sides currently in the bottom half. All of our six remaining home games look very winnable (Brentford, Man Utd, Palace, Ipswich, Chelsea and Everton).
Chelsea, currently two points above us, have a tricky set of remaining fixtures. They face trips to Arsenal, Brentford, Fulham, Nottingham Forest and Newcastle, along with Liverpool, Spurs, Man Utd and Everton at home.
Six of Aston Villa’s last nine (they have played a game more than Newcastle) are against top half sides, and two of their bottom half opponents are Spurs and Man Utd. See the remaining fixtures ranked below:
On the flip side, Man City’s fixtures look very good and should offer them a route into the top five, while Bournemouth could go on a run with five of their next six against sides in the bottom half.
We’ve won seven of our last nine on the road and it’s actually been our home form that has cost us at times this season, seeing us lose to Brighton twice, West Ham, Fulham, Bournemouth.
Our final six home games look winnable; five of them are against sides currently in the bottom half before we take on Chelsea in our final game of the season at St James’ Park.
If we can build on Monday’s morale-boosting win at West Ham, keep Alexander Isak fit and rally at St James’ over the final two months of the season, we have a real shot at finishing in those top five spots.