Satellite images revealed a significant deployment of Russian military aircraft at the Olenya airbase, located on the Kola Peninsula in northwestern Russia.
Russian VKS will receive modernized Tu-22M3M long-range bombers
Photo credit: The National Interest
The images, captured at 08:15 UTC, showed 10 Tu-95MS bombers, known by NATO as Bear-H, alongside 35 Tu-22M3 bombers, designated Backfire-C. Additionally, five An-12 transport planes, referred to as Cub, three Tu-134UBL training aircraft, called Crusty, and four Mi-8 helicopters, known as Hip, were present.
This concentration of 45 aircraft at a single base has raised questions about Russia’s intentions, especially given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the base’s proximity to NATO borders.
Satellite images of 🇷🇺 Olenya airbase as of March 11 08:15 UTC
The airbase housed 10 Tu-95MS (Bear-H), 35 Tu-22M3 (Backfire-C), 5 An-12 (Cub), 3 Tu-134UBL (Crusty) for strategic aviation pilot training, and 4 Mi-8 (Hip). pic.twitter.com/rbQ6A4f6vi
— AviVector (@avivector) March 11, 2025
The Olenya airbase, situated roughly 90 kilometers south of Murmansk, has long been a key facility for Russia’s strategic aviation, but this scale of deployment is unusual and prompts curiosity about its purpose—whether it signals an escalation, a defensive maneuver, or a logistical operation.
The Olenya airbase has a storied history as a hub for Russia’s long-range aviation. Its 3,500-meter runway, the longest on the Kola Peninsula, makes it ideal for operating heavy aircraft capable of crossing vast distances.
Historically, it served as a naval reconnaissance base during the Cold War and even acted as a refueling stop for flights between Moscow and Havana in the 1960s and 1970s. More recently, since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, Olenya has played a prominent role in launching missile strikes against Ukrainian targets.
The Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 bombers stationed there have been instrumental in these operations, often carrying cruise missiles used to strike infrastructure far from the front lines. However, the sudden gathering of such a large number of bombers at this remote northern outpost is not a common sight, and it has caught the attention of observers tracking Russia’s military movements.
To understand the significance of this deployment, it’s worth looking at past patterns. In May 2023, satellite imagery showed a notable concentration of aircraft at Olenya, including 14 Tu-95MS bombers, two Tu-160 bombers, and two Tu-22M3 bombers, along with transport planes and helicopters.
That buildup preceded a series of intensified airstrikes on Ukrainian cities, suggesting that large deployments at Olenya can be a precursor to offensive operations. Another significant moment came in May 2024, when images revealed 12 Tu-95MS and 13 Tu-22M3 bombers at the base, representing about a third of Russia’s combat-ready fleet of these aircraft at the time.
British and Ukrainian intelligence estimated then that Russia had around 40 operational Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 bombers combined, meaning Olenya was hosting a substantial portion of its strategic aviation assets.
Following that buildup, Russia launched multiple missile barrages targeting Ukrainian energy facilities, indicating a pattern where such concentrations signal imminent action. The current deployment of 45 bombers surpasses those earlier instances, marking it as the largest observed at Olenya since the war began.
Geographically, Olenya sits approximately 1,800 kilometers north of Ukraine’s border, a distance that places it well beyond the reach of most Ukrainian drones and conventional weapons. This remoteness has made it a safe haven for Russia’s bombers, especially after Ukrainian drone attacks struck closer bases like Engels in the Saratov region in late 2022 and early 2023.
The Tu-95MS, a turboprop-powered strategic bomber, and the Tu-22M3, a supersonic long-range bomber, are both capable of carrying advanced cruise missiles such as the Kh-101 and Kh-55 series. These weapons, with ranges exceeding 2,500 kilometers, allow Russia to strike targets deep inside Ukraine without exposing its aircraft to frontline defenses.
In practice, these bombers typically take off from Olenya, fly south over Russian territory to positions near the Caspian Sea or Saratov region, and launch their missiles from there. This tactic has been a cornerstone of Russia’s campaign to degrade Ukrainian infrastructure, with strikes often targeting power plants and civilian facilities.
Western experts have offered a range of interpretations about what this latest deployment might mean. Some see it as a potential sign of preparation for a new wave of attacks.
Michael Clarke, a defense analyst and former director of the Royal United Services Institute in London, suggested in a recent interview that Russia might be consolidating its air assets to launch a coordinated offensive, possibly timed to exploit weaknesses in Ukraine’s air defenses as spring approaches.
He noted that the presence of 35 Tu-22M3 bombers, a number far exceeding previous deployments, could indicate a plan to overwhelm Ukrainian targets with sheer volume. Others, however, caution against jumping to conclusions.
Katarzyna Zysk, a professor at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, pointed out that Olenya’s role has evolved since the war began, and this buildup could simply reflect routine maintenance or repositioning.
She emphasized that the base’s location, just 150 kilometers from Finland—a NATO member since 2023—and 200 kilometers from Norway, complicates any aggressive intent, as Russia would be wary of provoking a reaction from the alliance.
The proximity to NATO is indeed a critical factor. Olenya’s position on the Kola Peninsula places it within striking distance of NATO’s northern flank, a fact that has not gone unnoticed. During the Cold War, the base’s location was less exposed, with NATO’s border farther west along Norway. Finland’s accession to NATO shifted that dynamic, bringing the alliance’s surveillance and missile systems closer.
Radar and electronic reconnaissance equipment in Finland and Norway can monitor Olenya closely, and NATO fighter jets, such as Norway’s F-35s, have scrambled in the past to intercept Russian bombers flying near their airspace. In late April 2024, for instance, NATO tracked a formation of seven Russian aircraft, including two Tu-160 bombers, north of Norway’s Finnmark region.
This closeness means that any large-scale takeoff from Olenya would be detected quickly, reducing the element of surprise and potentially deterring Russia from using the base for anything beyond its current role in the Ukraine conflict.
Could this deployment be logistical rather than operational? It’s a possibility worth considering. The presence of five An-12 transport planes suggests activity beyond combat preparations. These aircraft are often used to move supplies, including cruise missiles, to support bomber operations.
The three Tu-134UBL planes, designed for training strategic aviation pilots, and the four Mi-8 helicopters, typically employed for utility and transport roles, further hint at a broader mission.
Analysts from the Center for European Policy Analysis have speculated that Russia might be rotating aircraft through Olenya for maintenance or upgrades, especially given the wear and tear on its aging fleet after three years of war.
The Tu-95MS, for example, is a design from the 1950s, and while modernized, it requires regular servicing. Similarly, the Tu-22M3, though newer, has faced reliability issues, with some units lost to Ukrainian defenses or accidents since 2022. A logistical explanation would align with Russia’s need to sustain its air campaign over the long term.
Still, the scale of this deployment—45 aircraft, including a mix of bombers, transports, and training planes—feels disproportionate for mere routine activity. Historically, Olenya has hosted fewer aircraft at any given time, with numbers typically ranging from 10 to 25.
The jump to 45 raises eyebrows, especially when paired with Russia’s track record of using the base as a staging ground for attacks. In November 2024, nine or ten Tu-95MS bombers from Olenya participated in a massive strike on Ukraine, targeting cities like Kyiv and Odesa with cruise missiles.
That operation, one of the largest of the year, underscored the base’s strategic importance. The current buildup, with more than triple the number of bombers involved in that strike, suggests Russia could be gearing up for something bigger—or at least wants to project that impression.
Western reactions have been measured but attentive. A Pentagon spokesperson declined to comment directly on the March 11 images but reiterated that the U.S. continues to monitor Russian military activities closely, particularly near NATO borders. Ukrainian officials, meanwhile, have been more vocal.
A source from Ukraine’s Air Force, speaking anonymously to the Kyiv Independent, described the deployment as “concerning” and speculated that it might signal an attempt to stretch Ukraine’s defenses thin ahead of a spring offensive.
However, without access to real-time U.S. intelligence data—halted earlier in 2025, according to some reports—Ukraine’s ability to predict Russia’s next move may be limited. This uncertainty adds another layer of tension to an already volatile situation.
BulgarianMilitary.com believes that this deployment reflects a calculated move by Russia to maintain pressure on Ukraine while keeping its options open. The sheer number of aircraft, particularly the 35 Tu-22M3 bombers, suggests a capability for sustained operations, potentially aimed at overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses with a barrage of missiles.
At the same time, the inclusion of training and transport planes points to a longer-term strategy, possibly to replenish losses or prepare for a protracted conflict. The base’s distance from Ukraine offers protection, but its closeness to NATO introduces a risk of miscalculation.
Russia may be testing the West’s resolve, signaling strength without committing to immediate action. Yet, given past patterns, the possibility of this buildup leading to a significant strike cannot be dismissed.
As of March 12, 2025, the situation remains fluid. Satellite imagery continues to provide a window into Russia’s movements, but the intent behind them is less clear. Whether this is a prelude to escalation, a defensive precaution, or a logistical shuffle, the deployment at Olenya underscores the ongoing stakes in the region.
With 45 aircraft now in place, including some of Russia’s most potent bombers, the base stands as a focal point in a conflict that shows no signs of fading—and a reminder of how closely the war in Ukraine brushes against the borders of the wider world.
***
Follow us everywhere and at any time. BulgarianMilitary.com has responsive design and you can open the page from any computer, mobile devices or web browsers. For more up-to-date news, follow our Google News, YouTube, Reddit, LinkedIn, and Twitter pages. Our standards: Manifesto & ethical principles.