It’s not news to you, but this Philadelphia 76ers season has been horrible. They’re 22-42 and actively tanking. They’re bottom 10 in offensive rating, bottom five in defensive rating, and bottom two in vibes and joy (Dallas Mavericks are No. 1 in that department). We’d all love to Men In Black Neuralyzer this season from our memories. But we shouldn’t.
As unbelievable as it sounds, there are positives to take from this season. The biggest bright marks of this Sixers campaign have undoubtedly been the addition of fringe pickups such as Guerschon Yabusele, Jared McCain, Justin Edwards and Quentin Grimes. But beyond that, to the actual hooping, there are a few elements of play that the Sixers thrived in.
The one area the team has thrived in all season is causing chaos on defense. They’re second in deflections, third in forcing turnovers and fourth in steals.
For many reasons, this hasn’t translated to an effective defense. But, when the team’s defense has looked awesome, it’s been due to their disruption. During a four-game win streak in late January, the team’s best eye-test stretch of the season, they averaged 22.8 deflections per game, which would be No. 1 across the whole season. On Dec. 20, the team had the 12th best defensive rating (currently, they have the 26th). They, again, were elite at forcing turnovers. Passing lanes were occupied and hands were flying.
The downfall, as has remained all season, has been rim protection, with the team allowing a league-worst 67.6% field goal at shots within six feet. Shot defense in general has been a blaring weakness. The Sixers allow the fourth highest three-point field goal percentage (and are in the top 10 for most open or wide open threes allowed), and the highest field goal percentage on two-pointers overall.
It may be the case that the team’s intention of occupying passing lanes and leaving assignments to prod away at balls leads to weaker shot contests, but the OKC Thunder are first in deflections and force the lowest field goal percentage on threes and twos. I understand this Thunder team is a historically effective defense employing a barrage of quick and agile defensive pests and two great rim protectors. But the pursuit of perfection, even if not reached, normally leads to higher results.
The team has gotten younger and quicker, trading away Caleb Martin and Reggie Jackson for Quentin Grimes and Jared Butler. The only older players expected in the wing rotation next season are Paul George and Kelly Oubre Jr. (though, Quentin Grimes’ play may price Kelly off the roster), who are second and third in deflections per game. All the wings can fly around on defense. Embiid could be a phenomenal rim protector. The team did close out and contest at an increased level during that late January stretch I mentioned. The blueprint is there.
It would be wise to emphasize that disruption next season, as it fueled a lot of the team’s offense. Of the team’s 109.5 points per game (fifth lowest), 17.4% came off turnovers (fourth highest percentage). Maxey and Oubre are top five in player percentage of points off turnovers, with George also making the top 20.
Another scoring category the Sixers crack the top five in is percentage of points off free throws. They’re second in the league with 16.3% of their points coming from the line.
It’s great that they are converting transition opportunities (1.16 points per transition possession, fifth equal) and making the most of their free throw trips. But those can’t be offensive game plans. Yes, points have to come from somewhere. But for the Sixers, they come from opposition errors. Free throws come from opposition defensive errors. Transition points come from opposition offensive errors. That’s not sustainable.
But, let’s keep things optimistic. Trips to the free throw line are also made by compromising the defense to the point they foul. Getting into those positions is the goal of any offense. This takes us to another offensive element the Sixers executed well. Drives.
The Sixers’ 30.1 points per game off drives is the sixth most in the league, this is despite averaging only the 17th most drives per game (46.9). They also averaged the fifth fewest turnovers off drives per game. Tyrese Maxey’s 14.1 drive points per game accounts for almost half of those buckets, but he is quick, a good finisher, and an above average playmaker. You want him driving.
The team is full of good slashers. McCain, George and Grimes are great at it. So, if the team is so good at getting into the lane, why is their offense trash?
Well, they’ve suffered from not capitalizing on open threes generated by the drives. Of the 15 teams that generate more than 14.6 open threes per game, the Sixers have the third worst field goal percentage on them (31.1% — only Washington and Charlotte shoot worse). The generation is there, just not the capitalization.
Of course, the first thing you hope for next season is health. If you get that, you know what to build on. Embiid looks more agile next season, then the flying, disruptive defense now has a rim protector backing them up. Keeping the optimism hat on, the team will shoot better on open threes next season. George, Oubre and Maxey are all shooting considerably below their career averages from deep. That won’t happen again...right?
If those hopes materialize, they paint a picture of a better basketball team. There’s a lot to fix, but there is a vision, albeit a blurry one.