HOW will Liverpool react to their surprise Champions League elimination? Some might wonder if losing on penalties to Paris Saint-Germain might damage their approach to the EFL Cup final at Wembley. Others may consider Newcastle United better beware, as a wounded tiger is a dangerous beast. Liverpool have shown, in recent weeks, they are not invincible, but they have lost just once in the Premier League, even if they have crashed out of two competitions in the past month. To give PSG their credit, they were impressive in the first leg in Paris and they did an excellent job at Anfield. It is hardly a major shock that compares with their defeat at Plymouth Argyle in the FA Cup.
Liverpool will surely be relaxed by the time the final kicks off at Wembley. Their league form has been outstanding and they are poised for their 20th league title. It is only a matter of a few weeks before they lift that giant, rather gaudy, trophy. Newcastle United, however, will probably get the jitters as they go in search of their first trophy since 1969 and their first domestic silverware since 1955. They are undoubtedly sick of hearing these statistics as their most glorious period was in Edwardian times; three league titles and the FA Cup between 1905 and 1910. Since Newcastle’s last success, in the Inter-Cities’ Fairs Cup, Liverpool have won 38 major trophies.
History counts for nothing, however, and Newcastle United are very much a club being structured for the modern age. Owned by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, they are desperately trying to leverage their wealthy backing to bring success to the north-east of England. They are still waiting for the anointment they crave, but playing Liverpool was not what they would have wanted. The problem is, Newcastle don’t fare well against the Reds. In the past five years, league meetings between the two clubs have resulted in seven wins for Liverpool and three draws. Some might feel Newcastle are not equipped to face a team so well primed to win honours, but if not now, when will they be ready ?
Newcastle have one of the Premier League’s most exciting strikers in Alexander Isak, while Liverpool have Mohamed Salah, who is enjoying what may yet be his final season with the club. How these two prolific scorers fare will surely be the decisive factor in the final; Isak has shown he can score against the leading clubs in the Premier and has a slightly better percentage of shots on target than Salah (46.3% versus 45.4%). Of Salah’s 27 league goals, nine have come from the penalty spot, while only two of Isak’s 19 have been spot-kicks. Salah has far more experience of big games, with one Premier League, one FA Cup, two EFL Cups and the Champions League to his name. However, Isak is among the group of players that played in the 2023 EFL Cup final, losing to Manchester United. They have been here before, but this time it could be tougher.
Newcastle have players in their prime such as Isak, Anthony Gordon (actually missing from the final through suspension), Sandro Tonali, Tino Livramento and Bruno Guimaráes, while Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Dan Burn, Fabian Schär and Jacob Murphy are all over 30. Liverpool’s over-30 brigade includes Virgil van Dijk, Andrew Robertson and Salah. Cody Gakpo has found the EFL Cup to his liking this season and has scored five goals in the competition. Liverpool entered in round three and every one of their opponents has been a Premier League club. Newcastle came in at round two and as well as Wimbledon from League Two, they have beaten Forest, Chelsea, Brentford and Arsenal from the Premier.
For the two managers, the EFL Cup final is arguably more important for Newcastle’s Eddie Howe than it is for Liverpool’s Arne Slot. He needs a trophy as much as his club, if only to stop any mutterings about his future. He was appointed in November 2021 and has been in charge for 162 games. With a win rate of 50%, he has a better record than any Newcastle manager at the top level since Kevin Keegan 1.0, but given the club has spent € 531 million on a gross basis since 2021-22, compared to Liverpool’s € 452 million, he has more resources than his predecessors. The two expected line-ups for Wembley were bought for similar amounts; Newcastle’s 11 cost £ 306 million to Liverpool’s £ 339 million.
Newcastle, under Howe, have yet to find the consistency that wins prizes and the question is, how long will this be tolerated by the club’s Saudi Arabian owners? But it has to be remembered that Klopp took time to win trophies when he arrived at Liverpool, securing the Champions League in his third full season. Pep Guardiola did not win a trophy in his first season at Manchester City. Howe is in his third full year at a club that has long forgotten how to win competitions.
Football has become a predictable game to a large degree and the form guide tells us that Liverpool should win. But if there is romance left in the game and if, by the law of averages, Newcastle have to come good after 56 years, then maybe _Blaydon Races_ will be heard loud and clear on the London Underground on Sunday evening.
Game of the People was founded in 2012 and is ranked among the 100 best football websites by various sources. The site consistently wins awards for its work, across a broad range of subjects. [View all posts by Neil Fredrik Jensen](https://gameofthepeople.com/author/georgefjord/)