The NFL free agency whirlwind has begun, and player movement has been fast and furious. One of the more shocking moves was made by a team that historically is quiet in the first wave of free agency, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers and Seahawks agreed on a trade to send D.K. Metcalf to the Steelers in exchange for three 2025 draft picks. Pittsburgh then turned around and signed Metcalf to a new five-year, 150 million dollar contract. Adding a talent like Metcalf is a potentially huge addition for the Steelers, and pairing him with an ultra-talented player like George Pickens gives them one of the better receiving duos in the NFL. However, from a fantasy perspective, things remained muddled as we look at Metcalf’s outlook.
D.K. Metcalf Fantasy Outlook After Blockbuster Move By The Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers Starting Quarterback Still Up In The Air
D.K. Metcalf’s fantasy outlook will depend greatly on who will be the Steelers’ signal caller in 2025. The NFL is a quarterback-driven league, and with no top-flight option, fantasy output is capped. In 2024, they finished in the bottom half of the league in total offense, passing offense, and points scored. As of this writing, the current QB1 for Pittsburgh is former Miami Dolphins backup Skylar Thompson. The NFL rumor mill continues to swirl, and multiple outlets suggest Aaron Rodgers as a potential starting quarterback option for the Steelers.
The 2024 Steelers offense could not support one alpha receiver, and now they are adding a second in D.K. Metcalf. George Pickens, despite the 25% target share and the 2.11 yards per route run, only finished as the overall WR42. Pittsburgh’s passing offense ranked 27th, and last year’s starter Russell Wilson finished as QB24.
D.K. Metcalf’s 2024 Fantasy Trends Are Worrisome
The fantasy data on Metcalf further underscores how important the Steelers being able to secure a competent signal caller for next season is. Last year, Metcalf saw a significant dip in some key wide receiver metrics. His stats dropped in red zone targets, endzone targets, and expected receiving touchdown catches. He posted a career low target rate per route run and did not make the top four receptions after week 10.
Where Does D.K. Metcalf Fit Within The Steelers Offensive Scheme
The Steelers were a low-volume passing game under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. The concern is if the offense can support two wide receivers that profile as a team’s top passing option. D.K. Metcalf will make a transition to an offense that threw nearly 100 times less and alongside Pickens, who saw almost 50% of his team’s air yards. The positives for Metcalf are that Pittsburgh wide receivers led the league with 12.9 yards per target. That pairs well with Metcalf, who relied heavily on the deep ball last season. He set a career high in targets of 20 or more yards downfield.
The final point to consider is whether the Steelers, in addition to signing a new quarterback, will move George Pickens during the free agency. Pickens will almost certainly want a new deal, and tying up major cap space on two receivers is not necessarily sound roster management. If Pickens gets moved or Pittsburgh inks Rodgers, D.K. Metcalf’s fantasy stock will rise. He immediately moves into at least the WR2 category, with WR1 upside. If Pickens remains a Steele,r or they end up with a low-end starting quarterback, we need to temper expectations. The volume and target share concerns could end up capping Metcalf’s upside.
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