It seems like a lifetime ago, but at media day on Sept. 30, Chris Finch spoke about how he can fix the Minnesota Timberwolves’ clutch time offense.
“Sometimes we might go away from what we know is really, really good,” he said, “and that’s Mike Conley.”
Chris Finch on getting better in the clutch this season
“Sometimes we might go away from what we know is really really good, and that’s Mike Conley”#WolvesBack #wolves #NBA pic.twitter.com/UA6ojOESus
— Andrew Dukowitz (@adukeMN) October 1, 2024
Five months later, Finch still deploys Conley in clutch time. The Wolves are riding a five-game winning streak as they battle back into the playoff race. However, Conley regressed earlier this season, and Finch briefly benched him. Conley remains crucial for Minnesota’s chances in the playoffs regardless, especially as he continues to close games.
Conley’s stats indicate a downturn in his career, which should be expected at age 37. His 8.3 points per game are the lowest of his 17-year career. His 38.9% field-goal percentage is the second-lowest percentage of his career. The floor general’s 4.5 assists have dipped to his lowest average since 2019-20.
As a result, Conley’s minutes have dropped to a career-low 24.8 per game. That’s probably the lowest minutes per game of his life. He averaged 31.6 minutes in his lone year at Ohio State. It’s hard to find reliable high school stats for him, but most players of Conley’s quality typically play 28 minutes or more, given games are only 32 minutes long.
Advanced stats don’t do Conley any favors, either. His 56.6% true shooting is his second-lowest total since 2019-20, dragged down by his 40.4% shooting from three. His 24.8% assist percentage is the second lowest since 2009-10, and his 14.4% usage rating is the lowest of his career. That has resulted in his player efficiency rating dipping to 13.4, the lowest since his rookie year.
Across the board, Conley’s statistics indicate a downturn. So, why is he still starting and a crucial player in the rotation? To answer that, I remembered a December quote from Donte DiVincenzo about his impressions of Conley.
“He has a very similar approach to Jrue Holiday,” DiVincenzo said. “You know what you’re going to get every day… great teammate, great person and great player. So when you have those qualities, it makes it very easy to come to work every day.”
Donte DiVincenzo on who reminds him of Mike Conley that he’s played with
“He has a very similar approach to Jrue Holiday, you know what you’re going to get every day… great teammate, great person and great players.”#bringthenice #WolvesBack pic.twitter.com/dx9EGXE6NN
— Andrew Dukowitz (@adukeMN) December 13, 2024
Therein lies Conley’s gift to the team. He’s a great teammate. Even when he’s struggling, he still raises the floor of all the players around him. According to NBA.com’s on/off statistics, Minnesota’s offensive rating is 0.9 points better just by having Conley on the court.
Despite his age, the Wolves are only 0.4 points worse defensively with Conley on the court. Therefore, Conley’s presence alone accounts for a half-a-point-per-100 possessions increase. That seems meager, but it ranks sixth-highest on the Wolves, ahead of Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle.
Conley drives winning by fostering ball movement. Even though his assist numbers are lower this season, passing is still his superpower. The Wolves have an assist percentage of 61.2% when Conley isn’t on the floor. No other player has more influence over on-off statistics. When Conley rests, Minnesota’s assist percentage drops 2.7% lower than its season average and is 6.2% lower than when Conley is off the floor.
Conley’s percentage may seem marginal. However, that’s the equivalent of the Wolves getting 6.2 more assists in 100 possessions. Looking at the Wolves’ players isolated into two-man lineups, it shouldn’t be surprising that every player had a positive net rating when playing with Conley except for Josh Minott and Jaylen Clark. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Rob Dillingham, and Joe Ingles post their highest net ratings when playing with Conley.
Although the correlation may seem ambiguous, ball movement and net ratings tend to influence one another. When players are involved in the offense and feel a part of the system, they are often more involved and focused on the defensive end.
“Making sure everyone’s touching the ball or even trying to get (them) easy looks,” Jaden McDaniels said after practice in December, “just to give them that energy to make them want to come down and play defense.”
Jaden McDaniels on ball movement sparking defense
“Making sure everyone’s touching the ball or even trying to get (them) easy looks, just to give them that energy to make them want to come down and play defense”#BringTheNice #wolvesback pic.twitter.com/ZGnIQPyo4V
— Andrew Dukowitz (@adukeMN) December 12, 2024
Gobert shared the same sentiment on ball movement leading to connectivity.
“I think it’s about feeling connected,” he said. “Whatever you do in life, when you feel connected, you’re more likely to give your best. … When we are disconnected at times offensively, I think it carries over to the defense.”
Rudy Gobert on offensive ball movement helping the defense
“I think it’s about feeling connected… whatever you do in life, when you feel connected you’re more likely to give your best… when we are disconnected at times offensively I think it carries over to the defense” pic.twitter.com/xJbG0dgSpl
— Andrew Dukowitz (@adukeMN) December 21, 2024
Conley is playing major minutes despite his drop-off statistically because he’s the connective tissue that brings everything together for the Wolves. His ball movement is motivating, and players universally play better with him. Although Conley’s play has dipped, the Wolves still need him. Given they are making a late-season push for playoff seeding, they need him now more than ever.