Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire with Russia at talks in Saudi Arabia on March 11 — assuming Washington can get Moscow to play ball. That will be no easy task. Russia may attempt to attach unacceptable conditions, slow-walk negotiations, or violate the ceasefire down the road. A credible threat of punishment from President Donald Trump could help convince Moscow to cooperate.
Ceasefire Proposal
The talks in Jeddah followed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s disastrous February 28 meeting with Trump, who subsequently paused arms deliveries to Ukraine and curtailed intelligence sharing. Zelensky, looking to demonstrate his desire for peace, then proposed an aerial and maritime truce with Russia.
On Tuesday, the U.S. delegation went a step further, suggesting a comprehensive ceasefire lasting at least 30 days. Ukraine accepted. In turn, Washington restored its military assistance.
“The ball is now in [Russia’s court,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared after the meeting. He said the administration would now reach out to Moscow to discuss the ceasefire proposal. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff reportedly plans to visit Moscow for a meeting with Vladimir Putin.
Putin’s Maximalist Objectives
While Putin says he is ready for peace, he insists that any peace agreement resolve what he casts as the war’s “root causes” — code for subjugating Ukraine as a vassal state and revising the broader European security order.
In addition to territorial concessions, the Kremlin demands permanent Ukrainian neutrality and a ban on Western military activity in Ukraine. It also demands that Kyiv demilitarize and legally protect Russian influence in Ukraine. Moscow may also revive a December 2021 proposal to restrict Western deployments in Eastern Europe.
Putin has indicated he intends to keep fighting until his demands are met. Believing his forces currently have the upper hand, he is probably reluctant to relieve pressure on Ukraine, preferring instead to continue grinding forward militarily in pursuit of greater leverage.
Beware Kremlin’s Games
The Kremlin has already started prevaricating in response to the U.S. ceasefire proposal. At the same time, Moscow is keen to convince Trump that Ukraine, not Russia, is the intransigent party.
Moscow may try to condition a ceasefire on an understanding regarding key principles for an eventual peace settlement. This could include a ban on Western troops in Ukraine, precluding European plans for a postwar “reassurance force.” Russia may also insist on a halt to Western arms transfers to Ukraine during the ceasefire.
Furthermore, Russia might demand that Zelensky first repeal a 2022 decree banning direct negotiations with Moscow. But Moscow contends — falsely — that Zelensky’s electoral mandate has expired and that he now lacks the legal authority to repeal that decree or sign a final peace deal. Aiming to replace Zelensky with a more pliable leader, the Kremlin may insist that Ukraine hold elections during a ceasefire — an idea unwisely floated by some U.S. officials.
Moscow could also deliberately draw out technical negotiations on a ceasefire’s implementation and monitoring. And even if Russia does agree to a ceasefire, it may invent some pretext to resume fighting.
Trump Should Have Sticks at the Ready
Last week, Trump warned that he is “strongly considering” turning the economic screws on Russia unless it agrees to a ceasefire. U.S. officials would be wise to remind Moscow of that threat as they look to get a ceasefire in place. The administration should develop sanctions packages to keep at the ready, including measures targeting Russia’s oil revenue. If Putin decides to keep fighting, these sanctions could at least shorten the amount of time Russia’s economy can sustain the war.
Trump should not limit himself to economic options. The administration should also warn that it will increase military aid for Ukraine should Moscow refuse a ceasefire. If Putin believes more fighting cannot gain him anything, he may be more willing to compromise.
John Hardie is the deputy director of theRussia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from John and FDD, please subscribeHERE. Follow John on X@JohnH105. Follow FDD on X@FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.
Issues:
Military and Political Power Russia U.S. Defense Policy and Strategy Ukraine