New Wizards Khris Middleton, left, and Marcus Smart, right, have helped the Wizards improve on defense. (Nick Turchiaro/Imagn Images)
The Washington Wizards head into the final quarter of a trying season having shown some legitimate improvement. Since the debuts of veterans Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart after the all-star break, the Wizards are 24th in net rating (point differential per 100 possessions). That isn’t great until you consider that, leading up to the break, they were last by a considerable margin.
Scoring remains the primary issue for the Wizards. They are 29th in offensive rating even after those arrivals. But their defense is a robust 11th — the product of adding two smart (no pun intended) players and in-house improvements.
In this edition of Five Things: how a new advanced stat rates the Wizards’ young talent, early thoughts on AJ Johnson, another way for Bilal Coulibaly to harness his athleticism and more.
Unless otherwise stated, stats are entering Wednesday’s games.
1
AJ Johnson
Most of Johnson’s time in the Wizards organization has been with their G League affiliate, the Capital City Go-Go. He played his fifth game with the minor league club Wednesday, scoring 12 points on 5-for-10 shooting, adding five assists and showing off his athleticism with a powerful flush.
He is averaging 16.4 points and 4.6 assists with the Go-Go, shooting 45.3 percent from the field and 41.9 percent from three, after arriving from Milwaukee in the trade for Kyle Kuzma.
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“I feel good. The adjustment’s been good,” Johnson said on March 3. “It makes it super easy having good guys around me and good people around me.”
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Part of the reason he’s in the G League is because there isn’t much opportunity with the Wizards: Jordan Poole, Smart, rookie Bub Carrington and, when he returns from injury, Malcolm Brogdon, are ahead of Johnson on the guard depth chart.
Another reason Johnson, who’s a longer-term project, is with the Go-Go is that he simply needs physical development. He is listed at 174 pounds in the team’s game notes; that’s 20 pounds lighter than any other Wizards player. Sportsnet’s color commentator for the Toronto Raptors, Alvin Williams, joked during Monday’s matchup that Johnson “looks to be about 13 years old out there.”
The Go-Go opportunities can still aid Johnson’s development. Wizards Coach Brian Keefe often emphasizes how the Wizards and Go-Go are one organization. They run the same schemes, which Johnson said has eased his transition. He also has a connection with Go-Go Coach Cody Toppert. While an assistant coach at LSU, Toppert recruited Johnson out of high school, the guard said.
Johnson, who said his goal is to crack the Wizards’ rotation by the end of the season, played 23 minutes in Monday’s game — his most since joining Washington. He shot 1 for 7 and had six assists. Several misses came on open threes and contested layups at the rim. He showed off his ability to get into the paint seemingly at will — a rare skill among the Wizards’ rookies — by pairing explosive athleticism with an offbeat rhythm to his game.
2
Net Points
ESPN recently unveiled a new catchall metric called Net Points, which tries to measure “how much better or worse than average a player is per 100 possessions.” The metric attempts to capture “more than the box score, including transition opportunities, matchups and help defense, and creating better shots for teammates,” according to an ESPN explainer.
The validity of the stat remains an open debate. The top players in the metric (minimum 500 minutes) were MVP favorites Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The third- and fourth-rated players were more puzzling: Houston Rockets center Steven Adams and Boston Celtics center Luke Kornet.
The highest-rated Wizards were Middleton (47th among 338 players with at least 500 minutes), Justin Champagnie (126th) and Smart (205).
Among the bottom 10, seven were first- or second-year players. That includes Carrington and Alex Sarr, seventh and eighth worst, respectively. Kuzma was 13th worst, and Coulibaly was 16th worst. Kyshawn George was the best among the Wizards’ young core at 24th worst.
The low ranks shouldn’t come as a surprise — rookies almost never contribute to winning basketball and Coulibaly has had a rocky second season.
3
Coulibaly’s off-ball scoring
It has not been an ideal offensive campaign for Coulibaly. The 20-year-old’s on-ball responsibilities dramatically increased in his second season, but shooting struggles and a still-too-loose handle often have left him unable to create shots for himself reliably.
He’s in the sixth percentile in effective field goal percentage (which factors in the added value of threes), per analytics site Cleaning the Glass. The Wizards’ offense gets 1.5 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor.
Coulibaly is at his best when moving downhill, building momentum to capitalize on his immense physical gifts. It has been hard for him to consistently do so with the ball because opponents can sag off, allowing him jump shots he has yet to convert consistently.
But using Coulibaly in more off-ball actions — cutting or screening — could yield results. The France native’s athleticism also could enable him to be a chaotic yet positive force crashing the glass.
That showed in Washington’s win over Toronto on Saturday; Keefe praised Coulibaly for being “all over the place.” Coulibaly grabbed a career-high eight offensive rebounds — doubling his career high — and tied his career high with four steals. He is already in the 75th percentile among wings in offensive rebounding percentage, per Cleaning the Glass, but is there more room for growth in that area — especially as he tries to find long-range prowess?
“Definitely,” he said after the game. “I was talking about it last practice. … I was like, ‘Man, I got to do it more.’ I’m pretty athletic, I got long arms, I should get a couple of [offensive rebounds] every game.”
4
Mailbag
Question from AHugeDillema on Reddit: “Do you have a sense of how the team views Kyshawn’s ceiling, especially offensively? Does the coaching staff have a vision of who he can be in the future? It seems as if he’s been taking on a bit more ballhandling recently and now it seems he may have more potential than previously believed.”
Good observation! George has received more pick-and-roll opportunities of late after starting the season off the ball.
That is not necessarily an indication of the team seeing increased potential. The Wizards — at least publicly — avoid comparisons or discussions of players’ ceilings. They don’t want to set artificial caps while they’re still learning new aspects of these players.
George’s new responsibilities are a way for Washington to learn more — experimentation through expanded roles. Seeing how he performs in those roles lets him understand where he needs to improve. It also should help Keefe and his staff tailor their offense in the offseason.
George’s opportunities have been a mixed bag. He’s around the 19th percentile in points per possession when running pick and rolls, per NBA.com. He is shooting just 35.4 percent on such plays, much of that probably stemming from his struggles finishing at the rim. He has shown some ability as a passer, landing in the 55th percentile among wings in the percentage of teammate shots he assisted on while on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass.
George has struggled with turnovers in that span. Many of them came on overambitious passes where he tried to fit the ball into a tight window. That is to be expected for a player trying to learn what he can and can’t get away with against NBA talent.
5
And ones
Middleton on Carrington: “A general. A guy that wants to have his voice heard.” That first showed when the rookie, undeterred by the 14-year age gap between the two, jokingly told Middleton in practice that the veteran was shooting on his basket on free throws. “You don’t see that a lot. … He wants to run the team,” Middleton said.
Even amid their strong defensive play after the all-star break, the Wizards are still just 29th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage, per Cleaning the Glass. It hurt them in the two games at Toronto and in Tuesday’s loss at Detroit.
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