At just 21 years old, Scoot Henderson is shattering any preconceived notions of being a draft bust after only one year. He's playing the most challenging position to adapt to in the NBA, and there's been a blueprint for undersized guards to find success in the league later on. That appears to be the case for Henderson as well.
Over the last 30 games, Henderson is averaging 14.5 points, 5.2 assists, and 3.1 rebounds. In that stretch, he's shooting 44.6 percent from the field and 38.9 percent from beyond the arc, while his turnovers have dipped to 2.6 per game. These are all significant improvements over Scoot's rocky rookie year, where he finished the season with 39/33/82 shooting splits and averaged 3.4 turnovers.
His shot has exceeded expectations so far this season, making up for any concerns surrounding his athleticism being less than originally thought when entering the draft. He's also playing far more under control, learning when to be aggressive and when not to force the issue -- shifting gears when needed instead of constantly playing at full speed
Defensively, Henderson is also figuring out how to be more impactful, something that Chauncey Billups has had an enormous role in. Henderson's 113.3 defensive rating is impressively close to defensive-minded players such as Anthony Davis and Mikal Bridges. It's also substantially improved from his 119.6 rating as a rookie.
With Henderson's improved play, you could now make a legitimate case that he's a better long-term prospect than Charlotte Hornets wing Brandon Miller.
Scoot Henderson’s improved play moves him ahead of Brandon Miller in 2023 NBA Draft debate
A year ago, this would have been an outlandish take. However, the NBA landscape is constantly evolving, particularly when it comes to the trajectory of young, somewhat unproven players.
Miller was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, one spot ahead of Henderson. Leading up to the draft, Miller and Henderson were in their own tier of prospects after Victor Wembanyama, with Portland set to take whoever Charlotte didn't.
After their rookie seasons, many declared Miller the clear-cut winner, as he finished on the NBA All-Rookie First Team. However, Miller's injury and questionable defense have reignited the debate about who the better player is.
Sam Vecenie of The Athletic and Bryce Simon of Motor City Hoops discussed this debate on The Game Theory Podcast. Someone in the comment section mentioned, "Scoot has outperformed Brandon Miller this year." "I would agree with that, actually," Vecenie responded.
"I know Brandon's counting stats when he was on the court were a little bit better, but in terms of impacting the game, I didn't really like Brandon on defense that much. I felt like his inefficiency and unwillingness and inability to get to the rim was a real issue."
Miller has averaged 21.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.6 assists this season on 40/36/86 shooting splits. Unfortunately, he was limited to just 27 games due to season-ending surgery on a torn ligament in his right wrist.
As Vecenie notes, Miller's overall stats are better. However, Miller's role on the 16-48 Charlotte Hornets differs from Scoot's on the 28-38 Blazers, who have several veterans clogging roles and minutes.
When healthy, Miller averaged 34.2 minutes a game with a 27.0 percent usage rate, resulting in 18.2 shot attempts. Meanwhile, Henderson averages 26.6 minutes, a 21.7 percent usage rate, and 10.2 shot attempts.
It's difficult to compare players in different positions and roles, especially in their second year while they are still developing. Still, the fact that this has become a legitimate debate shows how far Henderson has come in just one year. The Blazers' future is looking bright, thanks to Scoot's progress.