BEIJING – Should Beijing crack down harder on fentanyl – a synthetic opioid whose abuse results in thousands of American deaths a year – in exchange for Washington easing the trade war?
US President Donald Trump has pushed this demand since February, putting the issue of US-China anti-drug cooperation back under the spotlight alongside both countries’ tit-for-tat tariffs dispute.
The US has alleged that Chinese chemical companies produce the vast majority of the key ingredients, known as precursors, used to make fentanyl that is trafficked by cartels in Mexico across the border into the US.
“If fentanyl ends, I think these (tariffs) will come off,” US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in an interview on March 9, before China’s latest retaliatory tariffs kicked in on March 10.
While observers say China could do more to prosecute errant Chinese sellers of ingredients used to make fentanyl, Beijing sees little incentive to cooperate with the country it feels is the greatest threat to its development.
The US says China should be doing a lot more about fentanyl control, while China insists it has done more than enough. And the upshot of this stalemate is that the current trade war may persist for a while yet.
Fentanyl has been identified as the leading cause of death for Americans aged 18 to 45. It is used medically as a painkiller, but is highly addictive and potent, even in tiny amounts, and can be easily concealed.
China has traditionally taken a strong anti-drug stance, both domestically and in international forums. Since Mr Trump’s tariff threat, its officials have consistently said the “root problem” of the fentanyl crisis lies with the US.
On March 12, officials from China’s foreign and public security ministries told reporters that the country has done all it can for the US, and Washington should have said a “big thank you” instead of imposing tariffs on China.
On March 4, following Beijing’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs against US goods, China’s Cabinet issued a White Paper outlining its efforts at controlling fentanyl, including how it has launched campaigns against the illegal manufacturing and trafficking of fentanyl-related substances.
Associate Professor Chong Ja Ian, who researches US-China relations at the National University of Singapore, sees the White Paper as a response to charges by the Trump administration that Chinese efforts to stem the flow of fentanyl into the US for illegal use have been insufficient.
He said that while ascertaining Chinese claims is difficult, all governments with jurisdiction over the production, transportation and sale of fentanyl should do more to address its misuse. This includes better regulating production and exports of precursors.
This has been a key US complaint, as the US has pressed China to do more to crack down on these errant companies within its borders.
An April 2024 report by a US House select committee found that even though China has made the manufacture and export of drug precursors illegal, the authorities have not only failed to crack down on traffickers, but even, in some instances, thwarted US efforts to investigate these bad actors.
Shanghai-based international relations scholar Shen Dingli noted that China and the US have established a joint working group on counter-narcotics. Its first meeting was held in Beijing in January 2024, and a follow-up meeting in Washington was held in July that year. But there are no reports that the group has convened since Mr Trump took office.
“As long as both sides are willing, they can always do more,” Dr Shen said. But, he added, if China and the US cannot reach an agreement on the fentanyl issue and implement it, the current trade conflict will not be resolved.
China often points to how it became the first in the world to officially put all fentanyl-related substances under a controlled substances list in 2019. This was purportedly part of a package deal in exchange for a truce in the previous trade war under the first Trump administration.
Then, a planned US tariff hike from 10 per cent to 25 per cent on US$200 billion (S$266 billion) worth of Chinese goods was postponed for 90 days in a significant concession, although the increase was implemented in May 2019 after the US claimed China had reneged on other commitments.
Dr Vanda Felbab-Brown from the Brookings Institution, who has written extensively on US-China anti-drug cooperation, said the 2019 move to control all fentanyl-related substances was “a significant ask of China”, which had to change its laws to do so.
Among other things, China has also sent notices to Chinese chemical and pharmaceutical industries that it would monitor and regulate precursor sales, she said in an October 2024 podcast.
But the actions taken so far are low-hanging fruit, Dr Felbab-Brown noted. “What we really haven’t seen is robust prosecution in China. And what is really the most impactful, most important dimension is for China to start rounding up violators of the regulations and prosecuting them.”
While China’s door appears to remain open to a deal, it is adopting a wait-and-see approach before responding substantively to US demands.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said on March 11 that the US has used the fentanyl issue as an excuse to impose additional tariffs twice on Chinese imports.
If the US really wants to resolve the issue, it should consult with China “on the basis of equality, respect and mutual benefit”, she added.
The current lack of a top-level communication channel is also hindering negotiations and has led to frustration in Beijing over what specific steps the US wants China to take on fentanyl before the tariffs can be lifted.
An agreement to set up a “channel of strategic communication” during a phone call between Mr Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Jan 17 has yet to materialise.
The overarching relationship with the US is a key factor in whether Beijing is willing to play ball.
Analysts believe the current approach by the Trump administration, sometimes described as megaphone diplomacy, is unlikely to lead to concrete results.
Professor Zhiqun Zhu from Bucknell University in the US, who studies Chinese politics and foreign policy, said China tends to emphasise the importance of the general political atmosphere in the relationship before talking about cooperation.
A better approach, he told ST, would be for the US to publicly acknowledge the progress that has been made in curbing fentanyl as a result of bilateral cooperation, while privately urging Beijing to work more closely with Washington to tighten export controls and close any loopholes in current policies.
“President Trump seems respectful of China and its leaders, but many of his Cabinet members are hostile to China, which makes bilateral cooperation very difficult,” said Prof Zhu.
Lim Min Zhang is China correspondent at The Straits Times. He has an interest in Chinese politics, technology, defence and foreign policies.
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Thanks for sharing!