Barely three months into 2025, the geopolitical and economic landscape of the world order as we knew it, is hardly recognisable, thanks largely to the new Trump administration whose policies range from quirky to pure disruptive. The United States has taken an aggressive stance to impose “peace” on Palestine and “ceasefire” on Ukraine, while imposing tariffs on friends and foes alike, potentially triggering a global trade war. Some argue, this inward-looking stance of US will create power vacuums in global security architecture. If this argument is accurate, it opens an opportunity for India to reassert itself as the net security provider of South Asia.
While the world focuses on Ukraine and sometimes on Palestine, the latest flare-up in Pakistan has only garnered limited attention globally. The struggle of the Baloch people against an alleged oppressive and occupying state run from Islamabad had taken a violent turn since the independence of Pakistan, with violence levels following a sine wave pattern. The recent escalations were the gunning down of former-ISI aide Mufti Shah Mir on March 9 followed by the hijacking of a passenger train on March 11. These incidents signal an unprecedented escalation in the conflict between Pakistani forces and Balochi fighters. Elected representatives in Pakistan have admitted that certain regions of Balochistan are already beyond Islamabad or Quetta’s control. Strategic commentators and experts have started voicing concerns of Pakistan’s territorial integrity.
While conciliation between the opposing forces remains a distant dream, the fact the world cannot ignore is the potential of a civil war within a nuclear power. The situation is even more alarming considering that Pakistan has allegedly stored nuclear assets in Balochistan, and continuing instability in the region runs the risk of these weapons landing with non-state actors. Any question of unauthorised access to nuclear weapons is of global concern, and even more terrifying for the region. As such, India needs to take a proactive approach to ensure that the region doesn’t descend into further chaos. In this regard, India is uniquely placed to take up leadership responsibility in the region.
However, to do so, India needs to de-hyphenate its domestic and foreign policies. Since January 2025, India has taken steps to improve its relationships in the region. India and Iran carried out a comprehensive review of their ties, including the development of the Chabahar port located in the Sistan-Balochistan province. India has also restarted diplomatic communication with the Taliban as it continues to provide humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. Both Iran and Afghanistan share a border with Baloch province, and India’s initiatives in the region together with India’s record of providing humanitarian aid globally may be leveraged to enable diplomatic and mediating channels between the warring parties. For this to succeed though, there is no other alternative but to engage Pakistan in dialogue. With enough political capital in the bag, the ceasefire in IB-LoC holding strong and the situation in the Valley vastly improved, this is a moment the Prime Minister would be well-advised to seize and reinitiate the charm offensive of his first term in office vis-à-vis Pakistan.
By taking proactive responsibility, India could also secure some of its own strategic goals. There are three tangible benefits for India if New Delhi takes this path. Firstly, India gets to reassert its regional hegemony in the face of an aggressive China. This, on the back of recent improvement of ties with Maldives and a successful engagement with Mauritius, could be an ideal moment for the Prime Minister to achieve one of the most elusive goals of India’s strategic policy, peace with Pakistan. India at this point holds both the proverbial carrot and the stick, given the recent developments within Pakistan’s internal security matrix.
Secondly, India may then leverage this goodwill to secure investment opportunities and access to key minerals that are found in Balochistan. This will open up new opportunities for both India and regional powers like Iran while also having multi-layered benefits for Pakistan. Finally, if such a deal, though far-fetched, is achieved, this will be a major blow for India’s primary adversary across the northern borders. While Quetta could be easier to convince, it will depend on New Delhi’s strategic community mandarins to woo Islamabad to follow suit.
_**Abhijan Das is a strategic consulting and national security expert. He is a governing body member of Society to Harmonise Aspirations for Responsible Engagement (SHARE).**_
_**The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of THE WEEK.**_