Vladimir Putin in Moscow
Vladimir Putin in Moscow
As recently as January, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia emphatically rejected the idea of a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine.
But after a month in which President Donald Trump turned US foreign policy on its head and Russian forces made progress in a key battle, the Kremlin now appears keen to entertain the 30-day ceasefire proposal made by Ukraine and the US on Tuesday.
Dmitri S. Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, told reporters on Wednesday that the Kremlin was “carefully studying” the outcome of Tuesday’s talks between the US and Ukraine, and their call for a month-long ceasefire.
He said he expected the US to inform Russia in the coming days of “the details of the negotiations that took place and the understandings that were reached”. He raised the possibility of another phone call between Putin and Trump, signaling that the Kremlin saw the ceasefire proposal as just a part of a broader flurry of diplomacy.
Putin has seen a dizzying reversal in his geopolitical fortunes over the last month as Trump realigned American foreign policy in Russia’s favour, antagonised US allies and excoriated President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine at the White House.
But the emergence of a joint ceasefire proposal from the US and Ukraine complicates things for Putin. It deepens the tension between his desires for a far-reaching victory in Ukraine and for close ties with Trump.
While Trump says he wants to end the war as soon as possible, Putin has signalled he will not stop fighting until he extracts major concessions from the West and from Kyiv, including a pledge that Ukraine will not join Nato and that the alliance will reduce its presence in Central and Eastern Europe.
On January 20, when he congratulated Trump on his inauguration, Putin made clear that the goal of any Ukraine talks must “not be a short ceasefire, not some kind of respite”. Russia, he said, sought “a long-term peace based on respect for the legitimate interests of all people, all nations who live in this region”.
Analysts say Putin’s opposition to a temporary ceasefire stemmed from the simple calculation that with Russian forces gaining on the battlefield, Moscow would only give up its leverage by stopping the fighting without winning concessions.
But a February 12 phone call between Putin and Trump, and the White House’s subsequent alignment with Russia at the UN and elsewhere, may have affected Putin’s calculus by making him more eager to stay on Trump’s good side, analysts say.
That sets up a delicate balancing act for the Kremlin.
Ilya Grashchenkov, a political analyst in Moscow, said the Kremlin could be tempted to accept a truce that would be “tactically unfavourable but strategically favourable” in order to “show that it’s a peacemaker”.