hindustantimes.com

How Europe’s Military Stacks Up Against Russia Without U.S. Support

wsj-logo

WSJ

Mar 13, 2025 11:08 AM IST

Europe would pack a strong punch if it were forced to defend itself against Russia without the U.S.

Soldiers took part in exercises for NATO’s new quick-reaction force in Smardan, Romania, last month.

Last month roughly 10,000 NATO troops carried out drills just miles from Ukraine’s border to test a new quick-reaction force created after Russia’s large-scale invasion of its neighbor. The show of military muscle was unusual for who was absent: the U.S.

How Europe’s Military Stacks Up Against Russia Without U.S. Support PREMIUM

How Europe’s Military Stacks Up Against Russia Without U.S. Support

Now people in and around the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are wondering whether Europeans could handle more than just an exercise on their own. America’s commitment to NATO security guarantees is suddenly in doubt, even after the U.S. reinstated military support for Ukraine this week after Kyiv accepted a cease-fire and Moscow signaled it is in no hurry to end hostilities. American diplomatic outreach to Russia and the Trump administration’s frostiness toward Europe raise worries.

That is leading some to ask a once-unthinkable question: If trans-Atlantic ties deteriorate further, could Europe be forced to defend itself against Russia without U.S. support? American military brass and officials who have served across the Atlantic say Europe would pack a strong punch in such a scenario.

Europe lacks important air-defense and intelligence capabilities, but its militaries together constitute a massive air force, giant navy and formidable army. Those land forces, which shriveled after the Cold War, are now gradually rebuilding and adding advanced equipment.

A fight would be deadly and hugely destructive—as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shown—and raise the risk of nuclear war. But in conventional combat, say strategists, Russia would struggle against Europe.

NATO members have said that Russia in a few years could be strong enough to launch a more traditional attack on Europe, especially if a Ukraine peace agreement allows Moscow to rebuild its armed forces. Whether a reconstituted Russian military could take European ground is the question.

“What we’ve seen of Mr. Putin’s army is, they are certainly not 10 feet tall. They have struggled mightily in fighting Ukraine,” said retired U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, a former NATO supreme allied commander.

He said that 11 years after Moscow’s initial attack on Ukraine, when it seized the Crimean Peninsula, and three years after its full-scale invasion, “their army has been decimated” by a lesser Ukrainian force.

Breedlove and others are positive on Europe’s prospects in a fight with Russia in part because of the potential circumstances: a Russian attack on Europe. Europe has no thoughts of attacking Russia. Defending territory is easier than taking it, as ragtag Ukrainian forces showed three years ago when they stopped Russia’s attempt to grab Kyiv.

“I think that the European armies are well-suited to any problem that would happen with Russia,” said Breedlove.

One caveat raised in recent days, following President Trump’s blockage of aid to Ukraine, is the U.S. actively impeding European NATO action. “That’s no longer completely unimaginable,” said Giuseppe Spatafora, a former NATO planner and now a research analyst at the European Union’s Institute for Security Studies.

NATO countries are racing to learn from Ukraine and develop their own drones and antidrone systems.

Europe’s military shortcomings are well documented. Its forces rely on the U.S. for vital intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, transport aircraft and command-and-control. Perhaps most critical in a fight with Russia is Europe’s lack of air defenses. Russia has demolished Ukrainian towns and cities with missiles and rockets.

Still, Europe’s militaries together have significant defensive capabilities, which they are building through incessant training. The scale of exercises has increased and their focus has shifted to collective defense. U.S. absence from the reaction-force drill in February was largely due to troop rotations and European initiative to lead the effort, say NATO officials.

NATO’s 32 members last spring staged their largest exercise since the Cold War, including roughly 90,000 troops, more than 80 aircraft and 1,100 combat vehicles—a big chunk of which came from the U.S. This year, NATO plans nearly 100 separate exercises, said NATO’s supreme allied commander Europe, U.S. Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, in January. Most are in or near Europe.

“This is an intensive schedule, it’s ambitious, but it’s absolutely necessary so that we can make sure our forces are trained and ready to defend our citizens,” Cavoli said.

The exercises let combat troops get used to fighting alongside allies and help commanders learn how to lead mixed-nationality forces. They also force noncommissioned officers, who lead troops in battle, to practice making decisions under stress and in fast-changing circumstances.

NATO’s training of Ukrainian soldiers in its leadership approach, known as mission command, helped its forces prevail against Russia’s assault on Kyiv, said Ukrainian and NATO officers. Russian combat commanders struggle to improvise and adapt, the past three years have shown.

NATO’s European militaries also have large amounts of equipment, though much needs to be readied for action. Together they have roughly 5,000 tanks and more than 2,800 self-propelled artillery systems. Russia has up to 3,000 tanks left, according to open-source analysts, though the actual numbers are difficult to judge after it lost thousands of tanks in Ukraine. It has about half as many self-propelled artillery systems as Europe, according to the International Institute of Strategic Studies, a think tank in London.

Drones have cut the usefulness of such systems, and Russia now is a world leader in uncrewed systems. NATO countries are racing to learn from Ukraine and develop their own drones and antidrone systems.

A destroyed bridge in the Donetsk region of Ukraine.

For more traditional air combat, NATO’s European members have roughly 2,000 jet fighters and other warplanes, according to the IISS. Europeans are expanding and modernizing those fleets. By 2030, Europe will have more than 500 cutting-edge U.S.-made F-35 fighter planes.

Russia’s air force has roughly 1,000 fighter, bomber and ground-attack aircraft, and they haven’t performed well in combat, according to the IISS, which estimates Russia has lost roughly one of every five planes it sent into combat.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has reoriented his economy to a wartime footing, and it is now working flat out to supply its troops. If fighting were to cease, Russia could quickly rebuild its forces, Western officials fear.

European countries have depleted their arsenals by donating equipment to Ukraine and are struggling to replace all that. “Our industry is still too small, it is too fragmented, and to be honest, it is too slow,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte told the European Parliament earlier this year.

European leaders are scrambling to fund new military production, including at a summit meeting in Brussels last week. The effort has gotten fresh urgency from Trump’s pressure.

How Europeans might fight without U.S. participation is a new question for NATO countries. While European investments will bolster the continent’s defenses, the equipment and units are part of NATO battle plans and command structures premised on U.S. involvement—and even leadership.

Aside from NATO, Europe has no continentwide military command. The U.S. spent decades ensuring that by co-opting or squelching any effort by allied European governments to create rival military groupings. Europeans have repeatedly talked about establishing a multinational fighting force but made little headway.

Now Europeans are pondering what collective defense might look like without the U.S. A starting point could be NATO’s own battle plans, which are adaptable to varying force levels, alliance officials say.

The elaborate, flexible and detailed plans are classified. Still, NATO’s fundamental approach today, as during the Cold War, is to employ forces available in Europe to hold off Russian attackers until reinforcements arrive from the U.S.

Europe could still use NATO blueprints as a basis for its own defensive plans, even if they have gaps. Developing capabilities that could alleviate shortfalls if Washington declined to join a conflict is an undertaking that would balloon Europe’s bill for military modernization.

“You have to use the best tools available,” said Spatafora at the EU institute. “NATO’s plans are a good model because components of national armies are being put together for that.”

Write to Daniel Michaels at Dan.Michaels@wsj.com

How Europe’s Military Stacks Up Against Russia Without U.S. Support

rec-icon Recommended Topics

Share this article

Russia

Ukraine

News

Read breaking news, latest updates from US, UK, Pakistan and other countries across the world on topics related to politics,crime, and national affairs.

Read breaking news, latest updates from US, UK, Pakistan and other countries across the world on topics related to politics,crime, and national affairs.