politico.eu

West preps for peace talks

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Brussels Playbook

By SUZANNE LYNCH

with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH

GOOD THURSDAY MORNING and welcome to Brussels Playbook. Suzanne Lynch here battling just a twinge of FOMO at missing the shamrock-themed festivities at the White House. Sarah Wheaton will be with you Friday to see out the week.

DRIVING THE DAY: RUTTE HEADS TO WASHINGTON Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap

SAVING THE ALLIANCE: NATO chief Mark Rutte will meet U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House today, as the world’s largest military alliance faces its biggest internal crisis since it was established.

Treading carefully: Rutte has been putting his best foot forward on the recent head-spinning messaging from Washington, insisting the U.S. is on “the same page” as other NATO allies.

Prepping for peace: Today’s visit comes at a pivotal moment for the future of Ukraine and the European continent as Moscow mulls a proposed ceasefire backed by the U.S. and endorsed by Kyiv. The White House confirmed Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff will be in Moscow this week.

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The problem: Rutte’s visit comes as the former Dutch prime minister finds himself in the backseat, while France and the U.K., Poland, Germany and Italy form power blocs seeking to influence Washington, as my Defense colleagues Paul McLeary, Jack Detsch and Jacopo Barigazzi report. The subgroup meetings in Paris, which don’t include Rutte, are “almost as important as the preparatory meetings for the creation of NATO in 1949,” reckons French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot.

Exhibit A: Speaking after Wednesday’s meeting of the so-called E5 group of defense ministers in Paris, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu said around 15 countries had shown an interest in options involving “security architecture” for Ukraine, with his British counterpart stating that the work on providing security guarantees was accelerating. More on that here.

Reality check: But the reality facing Europe as it tries to forge a role in any post-ceasefire scenario is more complex. European armies are in bad shape — as indicated in this week’s damning report on the state of the German military — and capacity issues could hinder their commitment to any peacekeeping operation in Ukraine. European allies are also adamant that they need some kind of security guarantees from the United States — an issue that’s likely to feature heavily in today’s Oval Office meeting between Rutte and Trump.

ART OF THE DEAL: POLITICO’s Tim Ross has a top story out this morning that takes you into the room as British PM Keir Starmer worked to save the ceasefire deal. Tim reports that Starmer and his top security adviser Jonathan Powell labored intensively to resuscitate the broken relationship between Kyiv and Washington, and worked on a draft of the ceasefire plan.

Putin the pressure on: There are reports the ceasefire could come into force as soon as today — though with the ball now in Russia’s court, Reuters reports Moscow has presented the U.S. with a list of its own demands. Trump threatened more sanctions if Putin doesn’t play ball, saying: “I can do things financially that would be very bad for Russia.”

Channeling the Zelenskyy look: Putin — unusually dressed in military camouflage — last night visited Russian soldiers in the Kursk region and ordered them to quickly expel all Ukrainian forces from Russian territory. Seb Starcevic has more.

DUDA WANTS NUKES IN POLAND: Meanwhile, Polish President Andrzej Duda told the FT that the U.S. should move nuclear weapons to his country as a deterrent against Russia, saying “it would be safer if those weapons were already here.”

TURKEY’S ROLE: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk sought to lure Turkey into playing a more central role in the Ukraine negotiations during a visit to Ankara Wednesday, Dato Parulava reports.

Reminder: Turkey has the second-largest military in NATO after the U.S., while Poland boasts the alliance’s third-largest force. Tusk’s mention of further cooperation in the defense industry may unnerve countries like France, which is pushing for an EU-only approach to defense procurement.

EU’S HUNGARY PROBLEM: Closer to home, the EU is still grappling with its Hungary blockage. Ambassadors failed last night to reach a deal to roll over Russia sanctions amid Budapest’s opposition, with another meeting now scheduled for this morning.

Recap: EU sanctions on Russia, including penalties on specific individuals and entities, require unanimous backing from all countries before they expire en masse on Saturday.

PARLIAMENT BLASTS TRUMP, MOSCOW: Meanwhile in Strasbourg, MEPs accused the Trump administration of “blackmailing” Ukraine’s leadership into a forced ceasefire, in a resolution passed by lawmakers across the aisle, Max Griera reports. Putin, MEPs said, is being “rewarded” for Moscow’s ongoing three-year invasion of Ukraine.

Yes to ReArm: Separately, the Parliament welcomed the Commission’s rearmament plan and backed the idea of European defense bonds (a no-no for many countries). Among the proposals in the non-binding resolution is the creation of an “EU crisis response air fleet,” which would be available to member countries for the transport and deployment of troops and equipment.

Make peace not war: But not everyone is enthused by the von der Leyen plan. Former Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, now leader of the left-populist 5Star Movement, blasted the ReArm proposal as “unacceptable” and “foolish” during a visit to the European Parliament.

“It’s the paradox of security: instead of creating a future of dialogue and mediation, we are paving the way to peace with weapons … this project will contribute to create more tensions,” he told Max, warning that increasing debt for defense will also mean “cuts to social services, health care and education.”

NOW HEAR THIS: Kurt Volker, a former Trump envoy to Ukraine, told this week’s Power Play podcast it’s “critically important” to provide European security assurances for Ukraine. Listen to the full interview here.

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TARIFF TURBULENCE: The repercussions of Washington’s move to introduce tariffs on metals and Brussels’ swift reaction are continuing to ripple through the global economy, with Trump slamming the EU for its trade practices Wednesday and warning further tariffs are to come, including on cars.

Enemy No. 1: “The European Union treats us very badly,” Trump said in the Oval Office, speaking alongside Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin Wednesday. He made his usual exaggerated claims that Europe exports “millions and millions of cars” into the American market and doesn’t accept U.S. farm products. “The EU was set up in order to take advantage of the United States,” he declared.

More to come: He flagged April 2 — the date his administration will ram through its next round of tariffs — as the day America would “take back what was stolen from it.” He also took aim at the EU’s regulatory action against American companies like Apple. “The European Union’s gone after our companies. They sue our companies and win massive amounts of money,” he said.

Pharma in focus: Still speaking alongside Martin, Trump pointed to America’s “massive deficit” with the Irish leader’s country, stating that “this beautiful island … of 5 million people has got the entire U.S. pharmaceutical industry in its grip.” The president said he didn’t blame Dublin, but rather previous U.S. administrations for allowing it to happen — before riffing on his experience having to get EU approval for development for his hotel on the west coast of Ireland.

Taking aim: Trump’s latest threats come as the European Commission unveiled more details of its planned counter-measures against the U.S., publishing a 99-page list of products the EU could hit with tariffs in mid-April, including everything from food to chewing gum and snowplows.

Not happy: The Commission launched a survey seeking the views of those affected by the U.S. tariffs, setting a March 26 deadline for submissions. But already industry lobbies are protesting. SpiritsEUROPE said it’s “extremely concerned” by the Commission’s decision to put tariffs on whiskey and other U.S. spirits, claiming the products had become “collateral damage.”

LUCK OF THE IRISH: With Micheál Martin successfully navigating Wednesday’s meeting in the Oval Office with Trump, the Commission has tapped another Irish asset to press some flesh in Washington: European Commissioner Michael McGrath.

Swapping out: POLITICO’s Pieter Haeck scooped that the justice commissioner will visit the U.S. capital today and Friday. It follows confirmation that a scheduled visit by the EU’s top tech official Henna Virkkunen was scrapped.

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BROADENING HORIZONS: Ursula von der Leyen and European Council boss António Costa will get a welcome reprieve from the latest transatlantic drama as they touch down in Cape Town for today’s EU-South Africa summit.

The details: The two EU leaders will meet South African President Cyril Ramaphosa this afternoon, with a press conference expected around 5:30 p.m. The meeting comes ahead of a planned African Union-EU summit at some point this year.

On the agenda: The EU is expected to launch its first Clean Trade and Investment Partnership (CTIP) with South Africa — a tool first floated in von der Leyen’s blueprint for her second term, Camille Gijs reports. The proposal focuses on investments in clean technologies including hydrogen. In addition, von der Leyen and Costa are expected to announce fresh investment through the Commission’s Global Gateway program.

It’s complicated: The high-level EU visit comes at an awkward moment for South Africa diplomatically. As chair of the G20 group, it’s playing an outsized role in international affairs. But its pursuit of a genocide case against Israel at the International Criminal Court leaves it at odds with the U.S. — and the official EU position. A senior EU official said they expect the issue to be discussed during today’s meeting.

Stepping up: South Africa has also found itself a target of Trump’s wrath, with the U.S. president having the ear of prominent businessmen with links to the country, like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel. Trump’s administration paused virtually all aid to South Africa and has withdrawn from the Just Energy Transition Partnership, cutting off climate finance projects. A senior EU official said Brussels “cannot simply step into the void,” but will be “discussing with South Africa and others what the implications are and how we can best use our partnership.”

SPEAKING OF MUSK: POLITICO’s Sophia Cai and Adam Wren explain who is in his ear — and his DMs.

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HOW RUSSIA RECRUITS SPOOKS IN BELGIUM: Pro-Russian groups are recruiting people to conduct espionage and carry out cyberattacks in Belgium, an undercover investigation by VRT and other European broadcasters revealed. A VRT journalist infiltrated the group on Telegram, and received tasks including placing anti-NATO stickers in the EU quarter and collecting local journalists’ email addresses. Antoaneta Roussi and Laurens Cerulus have more.

HOW RUSSIA USES SPIES IN GERMANY: Back in 2023, CDU MP Christian Hirte hired Russian man Konstantin K. to work in his office, tasking him with maintaining contact with Russian opposition figures, including Mikhail Khodorkovsky. But it turned out K. had ties to the FSB, and was dismissed at the end of 2024, German newspaper FAZ reported Wednesday.

MEANWHILE, IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT: First it was the Pegasus spyware scandal which saw MEPs’ and journalists’ phones hacked as part of a wider surveillance operation back in 2021. Now, the European Parliament is shining a light on a new controversy involving the use of Paragon software in Italy. Bloomberg has the backstory.

Lessons not learned: Speaking ahead of an event in the European Parliament this morning at 9 a.m., German MEP Hannah Neumann told Playbook the Commission had failed to implement any of the conclusions of the Parliament’s report on the Pegasus scandal.

Time for change: “The spyware company Paragon promised ‘ethical’ surveillance for democracies — yet new revelations from Italy prove widespread abuse continues, showing that self-regulation does not work,” Neumann said, calling for “a complete overhaul of spyware use and regulation.”

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IN OTHER NEWS Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap

PARIS-BERLIN ACCORD: Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel and his French counterpart François Villeroy de Galhau meet in Paris today, POLITICO’s Morning Central Banker reports. Watch out for any comments on the evolving debate on how (or how not) to finance European rearmament.

Further reading: Giorgio Leali, Marion Solletty and Rasmus Buchsteiner analyze how Trump has reignited the Franco-German engine.

SPEND SENSIBLY: The EU’s aim to significantly boost its defense should not trigger a spending free-for-all. So warned Paschal Donohoe, the head of the eurozone club of finance ministers, in a letter to António Costa, Gregorio Sorgi reports in today’s Morning Financial Services newsletter. “We will actively contribute to discussions on significantly scaling up defense spending expenditure while upholding fiscal responsibility and debt sustainability,” Donohoe wrote.

TOP COURT ANNULS SAMEDO FINE: The EU’s General Court on Wednesday annulled the finding of harassment and the fine imposed by Parliament President Roberta Metsola on former Renew MEP Monica Semedo, ruling that her right to put up a defense had not been upheld. Write-up here.

SENTENCED: Georgia’s former President Mikheil Saakashvili was sentenced to nine years in prison after being found guilty in an embezzlement case, Ketrin Jochecová reports. Opposition figurehead Saakashvili was first charged in absentia in 2014 for abuse of power and has been in detention since October 2021 after he returned from Ukraine to his homeland — where the government has lurched toward Russia in recent years. He denies the charges, saying they are politically motivated.

GOING HUNGRY: Aid projects in crisis-hit countries have been suspended and staffing cut after Trump froze U.S. funding to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, according to internal documents seen by POLITICO’s Bartosz Brzeziński and Hannah Roberts.

AGENDA Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap

— NATO chief Mark Rutte in Washington, where he will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump.

— EU-South Africa summit in Cape Town. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President António Costa and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa participate. Opening statements at 2:20 p.m. … Joint press conference at 3:40 p.m. … roundtable plenary session at 6 p.m. Watch.

— High Representative Kaja Kallas is in Charlevoix, Canada, for the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting … meets Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly.

— European Parliament President Roberta Metsola presides over the Conference of Presidents in Strasbourg at 10 a.m.

— European Parliament plenary session continues in Strasbourg. Debate on the vision for agriculture and food at 9 a.m. … debate on an action plan on affordable energy at 10:30 a.m. … voting session at noon. Full agenda. Watch.

— Event in the EP: “A new European Spyware Scandal” on Paragon in Italy at 9 a.m.

— Commission Executive Vice President Teresa Ribera, Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič and Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius meet Norwegian Trade Minister Cecilie Myrseth.

— International Partnerships Commissioner Jozef Síkela is in Astana, Kazakhstan.

— Financial Services Maria Luís Albuquerque meets Governor of the Bank of Spain Jose Luis Escriv á .

— Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos is in Albania; meets Prime Minister Edi Rama. Joint press conference at 10:25 a.m. Watch.

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BRUSSELS CORNER Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap

WEATHER: High of 7C, rain.

NEW JOB: French President Emmanuel Macron has chosen Jean-Noël Ladois as his new communications adviser for international affairs, replacing Anastasia Colosimo, our Playbook Paris colleagues report this morning. Ladois is the former spokesperson of the French perm rep in Brussels.

YOU GOTTA BE FAST TO GET INTO THIS RACE: Slots for 20km race in Brussels on May 25 sold out within 15 minutes of registration opening on Wednesday, VRT reports.

FILM FESTIVAL: Calling all fans of underground movies: Offscreen Film Festival has kicked off, and will run through the month.

STANDUP: Comedians Robin Weinburgh, Heli Pärna and Rahul Venkit will perform at a comedy night this Saturday. Tickets.

FOIRE DU LIVRE: French-language book fair Foire du Livre opens Thursday, running until Sunday.

BIRTHDAYS: MEP Luděk Niedermayer; former MEPsJosé Inácio Faria and Chris Macmanus; journalist Paola Totaro; Jakub Bielamowicz from the Institute of New Europe; Paul Gaitzsch of the German interior ministry.

THANKS to Sarah Wheaton, Camille Gijs, Douglas Busvine, Max Griera, Playbook reporter Ketrin Jochecová, editor Alex Spence and producer Catherine Bouris.

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