valdaiclub.com

The Fate of Europe in Greater Eurasia

**_It is no secret that Europe's position in international affairs, and the prospects of the European Union as a relatively capable actor in world politics are among the few issues that are the subject of heated debate between Chinese and Russian scholars. However, in reality, both Russia and China would like to see the bloc as an equal and responsible contributor to the overall security and development system on the continent. Nevertheless, we do not yet know how long the Europeans’ path would have to be to overcome the consequences of Russia’s disappointment, on the one hand, and to respond to the increased expectations of our Chinese friends, on the other. The paradox is that both of these views, from the outside, have objective grounds. So far, European politicians and businessmen have demonstrated a desire to maintain relations with the main opponents of the West in global politics, even if they exert openly unfriendly behaviour. But simply passive aspiration may not be enough, and here the final word will have to come, as they say, from the peoples of the European states._**

Today, Europe is a political and intellectual smouldering ruins, where millions of confused ordinary people wander, having completely lost faith in their statesmen and having no support in the form of major public thinkers. There are objective grounds for this situation. First, Europe really suffered a terrible defeat during the two World Wars of 1914-1945. As a result of this, the centre of Europe, represented by Germany, found itself under foreign occupation, which continues to this day, under the United States. Europe’s second strongest power, Great Britain, shrank to the size of its national core and was converted through its strategic defeat by coming under the control of American patrons. France, finding itself alone, resisted for several decades, but over the past 20 years it has also confidently lost all its positions in world politics and has weakened internally. Second, the systematic cooperation of European countries within the framework of their integration, now known as the European Union, has deprived them of serious opportunities to plan their economic policy. The biggest beneficiary of this process, Germany, lacks sovereignty and cannot, therefore, convert its economic achievements into political confidence.

The only relatively coherent units are the individual countries of the former Soviet bloc. Poland is, of course, in first place here. The population shows no serious signs of apathy, the economy is developing steadily, and the conflict with Russia is not forced, but is based on its own calculations. Politicians in Poland are popular and their approval ratings do not fall to minimum values ​​within a few weeks of winning elections, as happens in Great Britain or France. Small countries such as Hungary or Slovakia are also confident on their feet, but their weight within Europe is not significant enough to protect anything more than their own tactical interests. In all other countries of the European Union, including such large ones as Italy and Spain, the process of losing sovereignty in the full sense of the word is almost complete. As one might expect, the voluntary refusal of politicians to bear full responsibility for their actions leads to disappointment of voters. In the case of Italy, this is, however, compensated by the fact that no one really expects a strong state there.

Such a joyless political background, not surprisingly, has led to a certain intellectual decline. Over the decades, European countries have been consistently getting rid of what sovereignty means – responsibility for statements, decision-making and actions. First, it was ceded to the United States in the important area of defence and security. This process was essential to the creation of NATO as a military bloc, at it completely frees Europeans from the need to think for themselves. Then responsibility was transferred to the common institutions of the European Union, where Germany played the main role. It would be strange to think that such a lived experience, which does not involve the need to be responsible for one’s actions or generally do anything independently, wouldn’t lead to a decrease in the ability to think critically. Now even bright European intellectuals live and think in a very narrow corridor of possibilities, which forces them to look at things in a stereotypical way and not offer their audience any original ideas. In other words, with the exception of its economic potential, Europe has already become a completely useless participant in international affairs. Now the US is threatening to significantly reduce Europe's economic potential, which is already happening against the backdrop of the rupture of its trade and investment ties with Russia.

For Greater Eurasia, which is now only an image and a project devoid of any serious material outlines, Europe’s new position is problematic. We can, of course, console ourselves with the fact that Russia reliably fences off the destructive potential of the Europeans from the rest of the Eurasian states. However, it is impossible to build a wall there; investments from the EU countries play a notable role in the general portfolio of our neighbours in the South and East, and the technological potential of Europe, although declining, can be in demand in the wider international community. Additionally, it would be challenging to confidently build a common space of development and prosperity in Eurasia with something strange, devoid of its own strategic meaning and gradually degrading on our western flank. We have little reason to believe that the Europeans will be able to repeat their own experience of aggressive behaviour in past centuries: the passivity of the population is already irreversible. But a dying Europe will inevitably distract Russia's deterrence forces, and also spread a certain instability around itself.

In this sense, our Chinese colleagues may be right – there is no reason to leave Europe to its own devices. It would probably be wise for Russia and China to constantly show the Europeans that they are not completely lost to the international community, that their own survival as a civilization depends only on them, and that other peoples of Eurasia are always ready to extend a hand of cooperation. Even in Ukraine, we see a significant number of citizens who actively or passively do not support the actions of the group that has seized power in the country. There are also many such citizens in Europe – these are the righteous people, who should not be left alone with their insignificant politicians. This means that we must pursue a dual strategy towards Europe, combining Russian and Chinese ideas. Also, we should take into account the interests of smaller Eurasian countries, for whom the material benefits derived from relations with Europe are of the most practical importance.

First, sincerity should underscore our strategy towards Europe – it helps best to understand one’s own interests and show our partners what is really expected of them. This means that the willingness of Russia and China to cooperate with the European Union should not encourage the vices of European political and cultural life that have led Europeans to their deplorable situation. The outstretched hand of cooperation should not be dressed in a velvet glove of hypocrisy and assurances from EU partners of what they themselves no longer believe in. Second, over the long term, all formats of cooperation in Eurasia should be open to Europe, where it can act as an independent and responsible group of states. European voters should know that if they vote for nationally oriented politicians, the doors of Greater Eurasia are always open to them.

Finally, we should not transfer our disdain for modern European politicians to businesses located in their countries. Many European entrepreneurs are sincerely ready to work with Russia, they are actively working with China and condemn what is happening in their homeland and in the corridors of political power. Now it would probably be wise for Russian and Chinese scholars to focus their joint efforts on discussing how these three approaches to relations with Europe should be implemented in practice and what to supplement them with. Developing a common approach to Europe, no matter how disgusting its current leaders are, is a serious matter; responsibility for it should be taken by representatives of Russia and China, who have proven their ability to cooperate on the basis of a strategic partnership.

Read full news in source page