A new survey finds that nearly three-quarters of Israelis believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should resign, yet his Likud party remains Israel’s most popular—and powerful—political force
Seventeen months into the war between Israel and Hamas, pressure is mounting again for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to step down. Many Israelis blame him for the failures leading up to the October 7, 2023, attack, during which Hamas fighters killed about 1,200 and took 250 hostages back to Gaza.
A new poll released this week by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) shows that 72.5% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should resign—either immediately or after the war comes to an end. An even higher percentage, 87%, say he must take responsibility for the failures of October 7, whether he stays in office or not.
The poll was conducted by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research, which surveyed 605 Jewish Israelis and 154 Arab Israelis late last month. And the numbers align with past surveys: even in July 2024, nine months into the war, some polls showed that around 60% of Israelis wanted Netanyahu to step down.
But here’s the twist: while most Israelis want Netanyahu out, many would still vote for him if elections were held today. Even as support for Likud, Netanyahu’s right-wing party, has fallen, the party still leads in polls. In other words, if an election were called tomorrow, Netanyahu would likely remain prime minister.
A recent Channel 12 news poll revealed a surprising shift in Israelis’ political preferences. For the first time, the right-wing former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett seems to be a real challenger. If Bennett launched a new party, Likud’s seats would drop from 32 to 24—tied with Bennett’s hypothetical party. Meanwhile, opposition leader Yair Lapid’s centrist Yesh Atid party would sink to just 11 of the Knesset’s 120 seats.
The poll also showed that far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party wouldn’t even pass the electoral threshold in such a scenario.
Still, other surveys continue to show that Likud would be the largest party to emerge from new elections.
In December 2024, Netanyahu’s popularity briefly surged, with a Maariv poll showing Likud could gain three seats. That boost followed Netanyahu’s court testimony in his ongoing corruption trial and the collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria.
So, what’s really happening? How can a leader so widely criticized still command the most support?
“All of these polls are about hypothetical political parties,” cautioned Ilana Shpaizman, a senior lecturer in the Department of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University. She told The Media Line that while many respondents may say they support Likud or Bennett, that could change once elections are officially called.
“When elections are actually announced and parties take shape, we’ll likely see different results based on who is running and who voters feel can represent them,” she explained.
She noted that many Israelis are still undecided. “I think we are going to see a lot of votes floating and people looking for a place to be,” she said.
But according to Shpaizman, that’s not the whole story. She emphasized that many Israelis vote not based on ideology but on tradition and identity.
Some people who vote for Netanyahu’s Likud party, which was founded in 1973, do so “simply because their father and grandfather did,” Shpaizman said. That loyalty gives Likud a built-in base of support.
“So, Likud will likely see 20 to 23 seats no matter what,” she said.
Another key factor is that many Israelis don’t see a viable alternative to Netanyahu, who has been in power for 17 of the last 29 years, including serving almost continuously since 2009.
Meanwhile, opposition leaders Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz don’t inspire confidence.
“They are weak,” Shpaizman said bluntly. “When you look at the alternatives, the alternatives are bad.”
Israeli journalist and political analyst Yoni Ben-Menachem echoed this view.
I talk to people from the left and center who are against Netanyahu and criticize him harshly. But when I ask if they believe Lapid or Gantz could lead Israel better during a war, they always admit the answer is no.
“I talk to people from the left and center who are against Netanyahu and criticize him harshly,” he told The Media Line. “But when I ask if they believe Lapid or Gantz could lead Israel better during a war, they always admit the answer is no.”
With hostages still in Gaza and an ongoing war on multiple fronts, many Israelis feel there’s no one better suited to lead.
“He made a lot of mistakes and, of course, bears partial responsibility for what happened on October 7,” Ben-Menachem said. “But if you compare his leadership, political skills, and diplomatic experience to those of the opposition, the difference is huge.”
Shpaizman said the political landscape would shift dramatically if Netanyahu stepped down. Contrary to what some might expect, she said that Likud would actually gain seats in such an event.
Likud would benefit from Netanyahu’s resignation. But he won’t resign. He does not think he should resign.
“Likud would benefit from Netanyahu’s resignation,” she emphasized. “But he won’t resign. He does not think he should resign.”
Ben-Menachem likewise insisted that Netanyahu is not irreplaceable in the party. He pointed out that Likud already has leaders, such as Economy Minister Nir Barkat or Defense Minister Israel Katz, who could take over.
He also warned that polling numbers should always be taken with caution.
“A lot depends on how the questions are asked,” Ben-Menachem said, explaining that poll results can be influenced by the media outlet or organization conducting the survey.
For example, a poll from Channel 12—often viewed as less favorable to Netanyahu—tends to show his numbers dropping. In contrast, a poll from Channel 14, which leans right and generally supports the prime minister, might show him holding steady or gaining support.
Ben-Menachem also said that Israelis have short political memories, which explains why Netanyahu’s numbers constantly fluctuate. “If tomorrow night Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities, Netanyahu’s popularity would surge,” he said. “And the opposite could happen too.”
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In the end, public opinion is unpredictable.
“It’s tough to judge,” Ben-Menachem said. “Timing is everything.”
Partially for that reason, Ben-Menachem spends most Fridays speaking with the public about their stances in Jerusalem’s Mahane Yehuda market. He also attends anti-government protests on Kaplan Street to gauge the mood. Despite the IDI poll, he doesn’t believe Netanyahu is losing significant support.
“Less than 1% of the population is protesting in the streets,” he noted. “If we were seeing the kind of mass demonstrations we had during the judicial reform protests—where tens of thousands turned out—then I’d believe there was real pressure on the government.”
Shpaizman, on the other hand, described a widening gap between public opinion and government action.
“There’s a very big gap between the will of the people and what the government does,” she said, pointing to economic issues, military decisions, and more.
She said that Netanyahu and his coalition act as though winning an election gives them free rein.
Netanyahu and his government think that once they were elected, they can do whatever they want, and if the public has a problem, they’ll just go to elections again. In office, they don’t think they need to listen to the people. They have isolated themselves from the public.
“Netanyahu and his government think that once they were elected, they can do whatever they want, and if the public has a problem, they’ll just go to elections again,” she said. “In office, they don’t think they need to listen to the people. They have isolated themselves from the public.”
She also criticized the government’s detachment from those most affected by the war. “Most coalition members haven’t even visited the southern communities hit hardest on October 7. They don’t attend funerals, they don’t meet with hostage families, and they don’t want to hear from soldiers or their families,” she said.
This disconnect, Shpaizman said, is dangerous for Israeli democracy.
“Israeli society is in mourning, yet they act as if everything is fine. If you ask them, they’ll say they’re doing great things,” she said. “This is undemocratic.”