Abstract
Climate change is driving species to colonize new ranges, sometimes causing uncontrollable damage. Here we present a remarkable scenario in which government-supported incentives have driven the establishment of a commercial fishery targeting a destructive urchin, intentionally encouraging overfishing to protect kelp ecosystems. This ecosystem management strategy is paradoxical in the objective to overfish sustainably. Due to consistent and increasing larval influx, the eradication of urchins in their extended range is implausible. Management, therefore, focuses on maintaining urchin density below a critical threshold while ensuring a viable commercial fishery for long-term species control. Our model dissects the fishery’s impact, offering practical strategies for controlling a destructive range extender given economic and spatial dynamics. Beyond the implications of subsidizing a commercial fishery to counteract the impacts of climate change, our study explores the conflict between exploitation and conservation, challenging traditional views and presenting practical pathways to sustainability.
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Fig. 1: Impact of commercial fishery on urchin density per region.
Fig. 2: Reduction in urchin biomass density due to commercial fishing by 2023.
Fig. 3: Risk of urchin biomass density exceeding ecological target with varying harvest rates.
Fig. 4: Calculating harvest rate to reach target densities in different regions.
Fig. 5: Best fit of urchin population growth model.
Data availability
The data that support the findings of this study are available via the Institute for Marine and Antarctica Studies Metadata Catalogue at https://doi.org/10.25959/Y222-HF95 (ref. [92](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-025-01526-8#ref-CR92 "Cresswell, K. Output of population growth and fishing model for longspined sea urchins (Centrostephanus rodgersii). Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies
https://doi.org/10.25959/Y222-HF95
(2025).")).
Code availability
The code used to analyse long-spined sea urchin population growth and fishing scenarios in this study is available at https://github.com/katiecresswell/Urchin_model under the MIT License. The repository contains all the necessary scripts, data and instructions for reproducing the results presented in this paper.
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Acknowledgements
We thank S. McCormack (Visual Knowledge Pty Ltd) for their assistance in the design of Fig. 1. We would also like to acknowledge CSIRO Sustainable Marine Futures Program for funding support.
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Authors and Affiliations
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Katherine A. Cresswell, Klaas Hartmann, Caleb Gardner, John P. Keane, Scott D. Ling & Stephen C. Bradshaw
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Katherine A. Cresswell & L. Richard Little
Centre for Marine Socioecology (CMS), Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Katherine A. Cresswell
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Katherine A. Cresswell
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K.A.C., L.R.L., K.H. and C.G. conceptualized the study. K.A.C., L.R.L. and K.H. designed the methodology, and K.A.C. undertook all of the coding, and further development and analysis, and processed the data. K.A.C. consulted with S.D.L. and J.P.K. on the data that the model was fit to, including how best to process that data. S.C.B. provided external validation of the model, and then helped especially in describing and checking the Methods. All authors reviewed and approved the final paper.
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Cresswell, K.A., Little, L.R., Hartmann, K. et al. When overfishing is the sustainable option. Nat Sustain (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-025-01526-8
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DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-025-01526-8
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