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Newcastle United’s hopes of Champions League qualification have been handed another boost this week.
Newcastle’s 1-0 win over West Ham United on Monday night took them to within two points of fourth-placed Chelsea in the Premier League heading into the final 10 matches of the season. But the Premier League are on course to have at least five clubs in next season’s Champions League following a UEFA rule change.
Following a rule change last season, the two nations with the highest UEFA coefficients for the 2024-25 campaign will each be handed an extra qualification spot. As a result, fifth place in the Premier League is highly likely to be enough to secure Champions League football for next season.
That would see the Europa League qualification place drop to sixth while the other remains up for grabs in the FA Cup. England’s Conference League qualification spot is up for grabs on Sunday as Newcastle face Liverpool in the Carabao Cup final at Wembley Stadium.
Either way Newcastle’s European qualification hopes will be boosted as a Newcastle cup win will guarantee them at least a spot in the Conference League while a Liverpool win would see the place handed to the next highest-ranked Premier League side. Should a side already qualified for Europe win the FA Cup in May, the Conference League qualification spot could drop as low as eighth in the Premier League.
Fifth spot almost guaranteed Champions League qualification
Champions League results this week means the Premier League is almost guaranteed to have a fifth qualification spot available in the table. It would have been even stronger had Liverpool beaten Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday night as it would have guaranteed an English club in the semi-final of the Champions League.
Instead, PSG face Aston Villa, who brushed aside Club Brugge over two legs in the last-16. Arsenal also comfortably progressed to the quarter-finals with a 9-3 aggregate win over PSV Eindhoven - they now face holders Real Madrid.
England’s performance across all three European competitions puts them in a strong position ahead of Thursday night’s Europa League and Conference League matches. Results in the Champions League mean England are guaranteed a top three spot in the UEFA coefficients with only Spain and Italy capable of catching them.
But with Italy having only four teams left in European competitions compared to England and Spain’s five, the extra spot for the Premier League is all but guaranteed.
UEFA 2024-25 Coefficients
1. England, 23.035 – (5/7)
2. Spain, 20.892 – (5/7)
3. Italy, 19.375 – (4/8)
Premier League could have seven teams in next season’s Champions League
The Premier League could have as many as seven representatives in next season’s Champions League, as per UEFA rules.
A maximum of seven clubs could be in the Champions League with a further three places available in the Europa League and one in the Conference League. But for that to happen, a very specific set of circumstances would have to occur.
In addition to the five league places, an extra qualification spot is handed to the winners of the Champions League and Europa League if they haven’t already qualified for the competition on league position alone.
No side finishing lower than fifth in the Premier League will be able to qualify for the Champions League based on league position alone. However, Aston Villa’s progress along with Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United underperforming presents the possibility of a unique situation unfolding.
Should Villa finish outside of the top five and pull off a shock Champions League win, they would earn a spot in next season’s competition. The same would go for Man United or Spurs if they were to win the Europa League.
Man United host Real Sociedad at Old Trafford this evening following a 1-1 draw in San Sebastian last week. Meanwhile, Spurs host Dutch side AZ Alkmaar looking to overturn a 1-0 deficit on home soil.
Should both clubs exit the Europa League on Thursday evening, England’s hopes of seven clubs in the Champions League next season would officially be over.
Previously, a club winning the Champions League and finishing outside of the Champions League places has removed a qualification spot based on league position (see Tottenham Hotspur 2011-12). But that is no longer the case, UEFA rules do not limit Champions League qualification places in such a way.
As such, the Premier League could have seven teams in next seasons Champions League should there be an English winner of both the Champions League and Europa League who finish outside of the top five.
If a club qualifies for the Champions League on league position and through winning a competition, no extra qualification spot is granted for that league.
Newcastle United’s accounts show £30m Champions League boost
Amongst all of the financial data posted by Newcastle United in their 2023-24 accounts, the club revealed that they banked £29.8m from their participation in last season’s Champions League - despite going out of the competition in the group stages. Matchday revenue, due largely due to their three Champions League home matches, also increased by 32% from the previous year to £50.1m - up from £37.9m.
And results over the course of the season have boosted Newcastle’s chances of a Champions League return as they currently sit level on points with fifth-placed Manchester City.
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