A long-hidden refuge where life persisted after a catastrophic extinction event may have allowed species to repopulate the Earth much faster than previously believed, according to Chinese scientists.
Their findings provide valuable insight into how ecosystems can survive and recover from ecological disasters, a question that is increasingly relevant to humanity today.
Over 250 million years ago, the Permian-Triassic extinction event—often referred to as “The Great Dying”—unfolded as massive volcanic eruptions released sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This rapid climate shift warmed the planet and acidified the oceans, triggering the largest species die-off in Earth’s history. Fossil records indicate that 80% of species perished during the event.
Marine ecosystems suffered immediate devastation as opportunistic species—those best suited to the harsh new conditions—quickly dominated. Plant fossils on land suggest highly localized extinctions, but most evidence comes from marine environments, leaving terrestrial ecosystems poorly understood.
Spore fossils indicate that spike mosses, well-adapted to deforested landscapes, took over in some regions. However, scientists have long debated how terrestrial species responded to the crisis. Some researchers hypothesize that certain mid- and high-latitude hinterlands served as refuges, preserving biodiversity and providing an evolutionary base from which life later rebounded.
A Faster Recovery Than Expected
Previous estimates suggested that biodiversity recovery following the Permian-Triassic extinction took millions of years. However, fossil evidence in northwestern China’s Turpan-Hami Basin led Huiping Peng, a PhD candidate at the Nanjing Institute of Geology and Paleontology, to challenge this assumption.
Peng and his team investigated the basin as a potential extinction refuge, analyzing pollen samples, plant fossils, and tetrapod remains from the region’s STD section—a key geological formation preserving evidence of past ecosystems. Instead of the expected moss-dominated landscapes, the team discovered fossilized tree trunks with deep root systems, indicating a surprisingly robust forest ecosystem.
Using high-resolution age models, the researchers found that the STD Section remained largely unharmed by the extreme droughts and floods triggered by the extinction event. This stability allowed fern fields and gymnosperm forests to thrive, creating vital habitats for creatures such as the crocodile-like chroniosuchians and the herbivorous Lystrosaurus.
The evidence suggests that this region acted as a safe haven for both plant and animal species, shielding them from the worst conditions and allowing them to eventually repopulate the Earth. While some local species temporarily vanished from the fossil record, few disappeared permanently. Instead of taking millions of years, plant life in this region rebounded in as little as 75,000 years—far faster than previously estimated.
Lessons for Human Survival
With growing concerns about nuclear conflict, potential asteroid impacts (such as the 2024 YR4 asteroid, which at one point had a 3% chance of striking Earth), and climate change surpassing the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Climate Agreement, the need for long-term survival strategies has never been more urgent.
The existence of an ancient refuge offers critical insights into how life can endure in the face of global catastrophe. Before the extinction event, the Turpan-Hami Basin was humid, with heavy rainfall. Although the region experienced a short dry period, the coniferous trees that dominated the landscape were well adapted to drier conditions, allowing them to persist. Meanwhile, less adaptable species retreated, and the region avoided extreme droughts and floods, enabling rapid ecosystem recovery.
Identifying such resilient regions and the species best suited to anchor them could be key to ensuring humanity’s survival in the face of future environmental upheavals.
The paper “Refugium Amidst Ruins: Unearthing the Lost Flora that Escaped the End-Permian Mass Extinction” appeared on March 12, 2025, in Science Advances.
Ryan Whalen covers science and technology for The Debrief. He holds an MA in History and a Master of Library and Information Science with a certificate in Data Science. He can be contacted atryan@thedebrief.org, and follow him on Twitter@mdntwvlf.