The Golden State Warriors’ long-awaited second star hasn’t exactly put up numbers befitting that status since arriving at the trade deadline.
Andrew Wiggins was averaging 17.6 points per game when the Dubs sent him to the Miami Heat. He was shooting 37.9% from beyond the arc on career-high volume, too, also doing enough as a one-on-one defender, rebounder and ancillary playmaker to hark back to the 2022 NBA Finals, when Wiggins went toe-to-toe with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown while helping the Warriors win their fifth championship in eight years.
The dynasty is done now. The only central figures remaining from those glory days are Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Steve Kerr. But the expectations in San Francisco suddenly aren’t so different from when the Dubs were stacking Larry O’Brien trophies, their hopes of competing for another title looking more and more realistic the further we get from general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. and the front office finally pushing chips in for a blockbuster win-now trade amid Stephen Curry’s extended prime.
Jimmy Butler III’s basic box scores in blue and gold haven’t looked much different from those Wiggins left behind. He’s actually averaging slightly fewer points per game and just more than one extra rebound per game than his erstwhile Minnesota Timberwolves teammate. Butler is combining for 1.6 steals and blocks with Golden State, while Wiggins managed 1.7 stocks.
On the surface, the biggest numerical separators between them are Butler’s 5.7 assists and meager 1.9 three-point attempts per game—no surprise to anyone who’s watched both former All-Stars play over the past several seasons.
Butler, clearly, doesn’t have the gaudy statistical resumé of the ideal co-star to Curry. Wiggins never did, either. At 35, there’s no guaranteeing Butler can still flip the playoff switch to superstar the way he did almost every other spring in South Beach. It might be more unlikely that Wiggins reaches his previous postseason peak.
Superficial similarities between them be damned, there’s an obvious reason some initial skepticism of the Warriors making Wiggins the centerpiece of the trade for Butler vanish from the moment he stepped on the floor for his new team.
There’s far more to basketball at its highest levels than basic individual stats. Butler has continued making that reality abundantly clear with the Dubs, in the process addressing three major issues that have dogged this team for years—a development that could ultimately give Golden State a puncher’s chance at the championship come playoff time.
Warriors thriving with Jimmy Butler ball
Golden State Warriors forward Jimmy Butler III (10) is congratulated by guard Stephen Curry (30) after a basket against the Charlotte Hornets in the third quarter at the Chase Center.
Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images
The Warriors are 12-2 since adding Butler, losing the one game he missed due to back spasms. They sport a +11.7 net rating over that timeframe, per NBA.com/stats, second only to the regular-season juggernaut Cleveland Cavaliers. Golden State ranks top-five in offensive and defensive rating, too, perhaps the most encouraging overall sign of its updated place in the Western Conference hierarchy as the playoffs loom.
A small sample size is a major caveat all by itself. Accounting for myriad injuries to opposing stars and impact players, especially, the Warriors’ schedule with Butler in tow has been a relative cakewalk. Anything less than double-digit wins against their underwhelming and undermanned foes dating back to the trade deadline would’ve been disappointing.
Golden State enters Thursday’s matchup with the Sacramento Kings at 37-28, good for sixth in the West. The Minnesota Timberwolves are hot on their heels for that final playoff spot above the play-in tournament, but even the process-oriented Kerr has already admitted his team is now seeking home-court advantage in the first round amid its late-season success with Butler.
The new-look Dubs’ biggest tests to date are coming. They host the New York Knicks, Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks in quick succession after welcoming the Kings to Chase Center.
Don’t read too much into the final result of those playoff-quality clashes, though. As long as Golden State can maintain the stable yet forceful identity that’s still taking shape around Butler, even competitive losses against other teams with aspirations of a deep postseason run will serve as more positive proof of concept.
Golden State’s turnover turnaround
Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23) and forward Jimmy Butler (10) and Dallas Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving (11) in action during the game between the Dallas Mavericks and the Golden State Warriors at the American Airlines Center.
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What’s been the Warriors’ most persistent bugaboo of the Curry-Kerr era? Turnovers.
They haven’t finished better than 16th in turnover rate since the dynasty first tipped off a decade ago. Though finally poised this season to break just past league average before bringing in Butler, Golden State’s ball security has been better than ever over
The Warriors’ 13.5% turnover rate with Butler in the fold is tied for ninth-lowest in the league, per NBA.com/stats, strides that come as no surprise given his time-honored place as one of the NBA’s least turnover-prone stars.
Protecting the ball isn’t the only way Butler effects the possession game, though. He’s also been buying his team extra scoring opportunities for years by wreaking havoc at the other end. Always waiting in prey, ready to pounce, Butler was an elite nail and back-line defender with the Chicago Bulls before he became a star.
Golden State’s defense is forcing turnovers on 18.1% of opponent possessions during its season-altering surge, highest in the league and a whopping 3.5% increase compared to its pre-trade mark.
Behind Butler and Green, two of the most instinctive help defenders of their generation, the Dubs have even been creating more miscues of late than the Oklahoma City Thunder’s historically dominant and disruptive defense.
Warriors finally getting to free throw line
Warriors head coach Steve Kerr smiles on the sideline after a Warriors basket against the Orlando Magic during the second quarter at Chase Center
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The inherent advantages Butler yields on the margins extend beyond turnovers. His presence has loomed just as typically large to another longstanding weakness of Curry and Kerr’s Warriors: Free throw rate.
Golden State ranked 28th in free throws per shot prior to the deadline, in lockstep with the team’s bottom-dwelling status there over the past few seasons. Enter Butler. The Warriors’ 27.8% free throw attempt rate since the trade, meanwhile, is top-three in the league, representing a team-wide increase of more than five percentage points.
Butler’s fingerprints, shocker, are all over that about-face. The Dubs’ free throw rate with him on the court is a gargantuan 31.7% and decreases by a full 10 points when he’s riding the pine.
There aren’t many players who more willingly seek out contact than Butler. He’s a shooting foul waiting to happen after getting two feet in the paint, mashing via ball screens, big and small switches, or slipping backdoor out of the Warriors’ vaunted split cuts.
More telling of Butler’s singular foul-drawing impact? Golden State gets to the free throw line more often than any team in basketball with him in the game, then reverts back to a near league-low free throw rate while he's watching from the sidelines.
Jimmy Butler’s sweeping impact on Steph Curry
Golden State Warriors forward Jimmy Butler III (10) talks with guard Stephen Curry (30) during a game against the Detroit Pistons in the second quarter at Chase Center.
David Gonzales-Imagn Images
Curry’s recent flame-throwing is no coincidence. He’s scoring much more frequently and more efficiently alongside Butler, feasting off easier opportunities produced by another all-court playmaker who poses an imminent threat to defenses.
Green’s streaky shooting and barely-there self-creation chops can make it difficult for his offensive mind meld with Curry to prevail against a locked-in opposition. Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga aren’t natural passers, and Brandin Podziemski is better playing off advantages than causing and exploiting them himself.
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Is it any wonder that Curry’s share of assisted scores—from 67.0% to 93.9% on triples and 44.2% to 62.1% on two-pointers, per pbpstats.com—absolutely explodes while sharing the floor with Butler?
The Warriors have been vying to put a big, versatile decision-maker next to Curry ever since Kevin Durant bailed in free agency six years ago. The addition of that basic archetype alone would’ve been a boon for Curry, let alone a smart, incisive, ultra-physical playmaker like Butler.
The value derived by replacing Green and Wiggins or Kuminga with Butler in these staple actions for Curry is all-encompassing. He passes and works the hand-off game like Green, screens and re-screens like Kevon Looney and finishes off dives to the rim like Kuminga.
It’d be foolish for Kerr to match all of Butler’s minutes with Curry’s despite their game-changing synergy.
Golden State, remember, couldn’t stay afloat on the scoreboard absent the game’s greatest shooter even when Durant was at the peak of his powers. Without that type of peerless top-end talent on the current roster, it’s all the more imperative that the Warriors survive for stretches of the game when Curry needs a breather.
Reminder: The sample size here has been accrued over just 14 games, versus substandard competition. If the Warriors’ success in non-Curry minutes largely holds up going forward, though, it could prove the difference between an early postseason exit and the plausibility of Green’s championship guarantee.
Golden State’s net rating with Butler on the court and Curry off is an eye-popping +16.4, per pbpstats.com. The Dubs have played elite-level basketball on both ends across those 163 minutes of court time, not even benefiting from outlier jump-shooting in either direction.
It’s naive to assume any team could sustain a net rating in the mid-teens without its best player in the lineup. The Warriors’ stunning non-Curry number is bound to come down over the season’s remainder.
The strongest indication that Golden State will win the majority of those minutes going forward regardless? Butler’s seamless transformation from low-maintenance co-star to borderline alpha dog.
Readily embracing his “Jimmy Buckets” alter ego, Butler’s usage spikes from 19.9 to 23.2 while playing sans Curry, per pbpstats.com. He averages over three more points and a full extra assist per 100 possessions, plus a laughable yet expected uptick in drawn shooting foul rate from 17.4% to 38.7%. Even Butler’s slightly below-average true shooting percentage next to Curry jumps over 10 points to a stellar 65.6% when he’s the Dubs’ primary offensive option.
Whether or not playing next to Curry, Butler has found a home in the paint with Golden State while pinning helpless defenders above his hip, living on soft lobs from Green over the top of lifted defenses. Once he’s made up his mind to score from the perimeter or low-block extended, Butler’s attacked one-on-one with his uncanny blend of precision and aggression.
Butler isn't just a hand-in-glove stylistic fit with Curry. He's proven just as simpatico on-court with Green, not to mention a natural in Kerr's read-and-react offense.
How far can new-look Dubs go?
Golden State Warriors forward Jimmy Butler III (10) looks on against the Orlando Magic in the second quarter at Kia Center.
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The Warriors have glaring holes that can’t be filled and many questions left to answer.
They’re small from one to five and lack athleticism and explosiveness outside Butler and Kuminga. Consequences of relying on at least four make-you-prove-it three-point shooters in the rotation are bound to be magnified under the postseason microscope. Is Quinten Post really ready to hold up defensively?
It would almost be surprising if Kuminga’s integration goes smoothly. Who can make life hard on superstar ball-handlers at the point of attack other than Gary Payton II? Golden State’s depth is fully comprised of players with extreme limitations. Don’t forget that this team’s three best players are all closer to 40 years old than 30.
Still, the West is there for the taking despite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder’s juggernaut regular season and the Denver Nuggets’ midseason turnaround behind a peak Nikola Jokic. Those favorites would definitely prefer to avoid the Warriors in the playoffs. The same goes for LeBron James, Luka Doncic and the revamped Los Angeles Lakers.
After falling below .500 as recently as February 6th, the day before the trade, what more could Golden State and its legion of fans expect in the playoffs than simply being feared? Every scale of new expectations is the result of Butler's arrival, and his history in Miami says the best is yet to come when it matters most—right along with the Warriors'.