Britain's former ambassador to Russia, Tony Brenton, has seen the Russian leader negotiate. He's not convinced a ceasefire deal is imminent
Vladimir Putin is a formidable negotiator and will break a ceasefire agreement if he decides it is not in Russia‘s favour, Britain’s former ambassador to Moscow has warned.
Ukraine has agreed to a US-brokered 30-day ceasefire after crunch talks in Saudi Arabia, the first step towards a permanent peace settlement in a bloody conflict which has cost hundreds of thousands of lives.
But a top Kremlin aide has dismissed the plan as giving Ukraine “respite” just hours before Putin is due to meet US envoy Steve Witkoff this evening to discuss the offer.
Russian journalist Andrei Kolesnikov claims he had information that Putin would receive Witkoff after completing talks with Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of Belarus.
Yury Ushakov, Putin’s senior foreign policy adviser, told state television that Witkoff was due to meet “Russian representatives of a very high rank” and that a meeting with Putin was “not excluded”.
But Ushakov said: “I have stated our position that this is nothing other than a temporary respite for the Ukrainian military, nothing more. It seems to me that no one needs any steps that merely imitate peaceful actions in this situation.”
With the peace talks hanging by a thread, the question remains over how anyone can negotiate an end to the three-year Russia-Ukraine war with the man who launched it.
Putin is a ‘formidable negotiator’ – concerned with just one thing
Tony Brenton – who served as British ambassador to Russia between 2004 and 2008 – has seen Putin negotiate, and describes him as a “formidable” diplomat.
“He is very unsentimental. He reads his briefs, which not all politicians do, and he knows what his objectives are. He’s polite, and always seemed to have a fairly friendly relationship with [former PM Sir Tony] Blair,” Brenton told The i Paper.
British Ambassador to Moscow Tony Brenton leaves Russia's Foreign Ministry in Moscow July 19, 2007. Russia said on Thursday it would expel four British diplomats from Moscow, retaliating for Britain's decision earlier this week to send home four Russian diplomats. REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin (RUSSIA)
Tony Brenton was British ambassador to Moscow 2004-08 (Photo: Sergei Karpukhin/Reuters)
“If he’s surprised, he goes away, thinks about it and then something can happen that you don’t expect.”
Brenton – who managed the diplomatic response to the 2006 murder of former FSB officer and Putin critic Alexander Litvinenko, in which diplomats from both Russia and the UK were expelled – sees Putin less as a master strategist and more as an opportunist and not inherently untrustworthy, so long as the deal is right for him.
“What he’s concerned about is how any deal comes off for Russia. He’s a ‘make Russia great again’ man, in the same way as Trump is a ‘make America great again’ man,” he said.
“My experience is that the Kremlin do break agreements, but only if they think it’s not in Russia’s interest anymore.”
What US must do to sell the deal
Brenton advised the US delegation to “know what you want, know your arguments, and demonstrate to Putin the advantages for Russia”.
In the ceasefire negotiations, the team must “find a couple of sweeteners” to enable Putin to show the Russian people that the deal is good for them, Brenton said.
One compelling bargaining chip might be the lifting of sanctions on the Russian economy.
Another is a commitment that Ukraine – with which Russia shares a 600-mile border – will be neutral.
TOPSHOT - In this grab taken from a handout footage released by the Kremlin on March 12, 2025, Russia's President Vladimir Putin visits a command point for the Kursk group of troops involved in the counteroffensive in the Kursk region, amid the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict. (Photo by Handout / KREMLIN.RU / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / Kremlin.ru / handout" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS (Photo by HANDOUT/KREMLIN.RU/AFP via Getty Images)
Putin made his first trip to Kursk since Ukraine’s surprise attack took the territory last year (Photo: Screengrab from Kremlin footage/AFP)
“When Putin has to justify the deal to his people, he will make front and centre the idea that Ukraine will be neutral, not an enemy, not in Nato,” Brenton said.
“That’s a key line that Russia has taken throughout the war. The closer we can get to confirming that, the more attracted he will be.”
“Putin is aware of the need to sell this to his people,” he added.
“They have public opinion polls, and Putin is remarkably popular. But he started this war, and it has cost a lot of money and lot of blood. If it turns out to have been a failure, his position will undoubtedly suffer.
There are fears that pandering to Russian demands could encourage them to launch further attacks in the future – as the UK’s attempts to appease fascist Italy and Germany in the 1930s proved – but Keir Starmer has suggested negotiation is the only option, saying yesterday that there is “no Plan B to the process other than a continuation of the conflict”.
Is a ceasefire really possible?
With a strong set of sweeteners for Putin, Brenton said he does see a path to agreement, though stresses it may take time.
“Putin is very mistrustful. He views people over the side of the table broadly as we view him – as people who will double-cross him.
“We need to nail down an assurance that that won’t happen, but I do have optimism,” he said.
“It won’t happen as quickly as Trump wants it to. Even if they agree a ceasefire in principle, they will need someone to supervise the front lines, intervene in the case of any breaches, and that will all take time to agree.
“It might be best to put forward an offer and let Putin think hard about it.”