The first wave of free agency is in the rearview mirror and the Green Bay [Packers](https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/) have made meaningful additions to their offensive line and secondary. However, one position of need is wide receiver, brought about by the Christian Watson knee injury, and it appears to be unaddressed as we go into free agency’s second phase.
D.K. Metcalf, whom the Packers were reportedly and understandably interested in, ended up going to Pittsburgh and signing a new contract worth north of $30M per season. The Packers were also reportedly interested in Davante Adams, who headed back home to California, signing with the [Los Angeles Rams](https://www.turfshowtimes.com/). Second- and third-tier receiver targets like Darius Slayton, Josh Palmer, and even former Packer Marquez Valdes-Scantling have all been scooped up as well, leaving an already thin receiver market quite light.
The remaining free agents at the position are mostly aged short and intermediate targets who have never really fulfilled the need Green Bay currently has for field stretching speed. These remaining players include the likes of Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, Diontae Johnson, and Robert Woods, or undersized and aging former vertical threats like Stefon Diggs (who is coming off a major injury), Brandin Cooks, and Tyler Lockett. Given Green Bay’s desire to have larger receivers and the offense’s very specific need for more vertical field stretching, the remainder of the crop looks very thin outside of some lower tier options like an aging Amari Cooper or an extremely limited player such as a DJ Chark. Given the limitations of the remaining free agent crop, I believe it makes more sense for the Packers to prioritize their current players, particularly Dontayvion Wicks.
Unless you have been living under a rock for the past two years, you know the deal with Wicks. He is a truly outstanding route runner prone to bouts of butter fingers. The first half of 2024 was an absolute nightmare run for him in this regard, posting a 27% drop rate in the season’s first ten weeks.
As Zach Kruse notes, his drop rate the rest of the season was significantly lower, though at a still elevated 10.7%. In 2023, though, Wicks drop rate was actually fantastic at just 4.7%, which ranked 15th-best in the NFL that season. According to ESPN Analytics’ receiver metrics, 2023 Wicks’ catch rating was 24th-best in the league. Drops are generally going to be a noisier stat week-to-week and year-over-year, and in 2024 he was truly abysmal in this regard, rating as the worst in the league in catch rating at 0. Yes, ZERO.
Despite a horrendous year of actually catching the ball, the stickier metrics for Wicks still look incredibly impressive. Wicks ranked fourth in the NFL in his ability to get separation by their “Open” metric. In 2023, Wicks ranked above average in this metric as well, with a 55 score. Across his two seasons, Wicks ranks 16th in the league in Open score. The players around him are some of the better receivers in the league: Chris Olave, pre-injury Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Brandon Aiyuk, Metcalf, and Justin Jefferson. As a bonus, Wicks is not only good at getting open, but he is surprisingly slippery with the ball in his hands, ranking seventh in ESPN’s YAC score over the past two seasons.
There’s no doubt that Wicks’ ability to catch the football needs to improve going forward. . However, this is the part of a receiver’s profile that is both the noisiest and the easiest to work on. It’s difficult to make your body twitchier in your twenties. You can work on your catching fundamentals, and I’m sure Wicks will spend the off-season working on just that.
We have already seen what a good Dontayvion Wicks can do. In 2023, Wicks led the Packers in total receiving EPA despite having 36 fewer targets than second-ranked Jayden Reed and 38 fewer targets than third-ranked Romeo Doubs. Wicks’ EPA-per-target of +0.48 that season ranked sixth in the entire NFL. When Wicks can catch the ball, he puts up star-level efficiency. And despite the drop issues and fewer injuries to his primary competition for snaps (Christian Watson), Wicks’ target numbers rose significantly in 2024, as he led the team in targets with 76. In fact, Wicks target-percentage, the percentage of routes on which he was targeted, ranked sixteenth in the league, ahead of star receivers like Brian Thomas Jr, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and even Justin Jefferson, another testament to just how reliably he gets open.
Rather than taking snaps away from him to give to an aging veteran who does nothing to solve the offense’s most pressing shortcoming at the moment, the Packers should bank on development and statistical regression from Wicks. The underlying metrics show a potential star in the making. Don’t waste snaps on a veteran who won’t be able to give you that.