When the US President speaks of threats of global conflict, we must take him – and them – seriously
Whatever one thinks about President Trump’s showboating, he is undoubtedly shaking up the world order and the serene environment of geopolitics and diplomacy like almost no peacetime leader in memory.
So when he speaks of threats of global conflict, we must take him – and them – seriously. It is, however, sanguine to reflect on whether Trump is encouraging or discouraging this dreadful notion of a third world war – or if it is simply part of his transactional approach to “life-and-death” situations, and just might lead to a positive outcome.
The mood music coming out of the Kremlin this week is that a peace deal and ceasefire, on the terms which the US agreed with Ukraine in Saudi Arabia this week, is in no way close. So now Trump must turn his attention to Vladimir Putin, who has already managed to pretty much decouple the US from Europe. Perhaps, then, it is Putin and not Trump who is the master strategist. Hopefully when Trump senses this, it will galvanise him to try and checkmate the Russian.
Putin’s demands that Crimea and the four illegally annexed oblasts be fully incorporated into Russia, and the stipulation that no Nato troops be allowed into Ukraine, give the impression that he will extend the war if his demands are ignored. But they must be ignored, and hence we must fully prepare for war.
It is probably no surprise that as Putin welcomes Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko – in whose country Russian tactical nuclear weapons have been deployed, and who promised to “push the [nuclear] button together if needed” – to the Kremlin, Poland calls on the US to station tactical nuclear weapons in Poland, in range of Russia and Belarus. The nuclear option is a distraction in this context; it is the current imbalance in conventional weapons which is most likely to trigger world war three, not nuclear weapons.
All the talk of World War Three by the US President is likely to be “Trumpflation” of the situation. If Trump throws the power of the US military behind Ukraine, even just figuratively, Putin will not be able to take Ukraine and the chances of wider conflict in Europe will further diminish.
Though the Kremlin has stated today that any ceasefire will only allow the Ukrainian military to regroup and rearm, it is Russia who will need to do this urgently if the US turns on the military taps to Kyiv again. And the US military, supported by the Nato alliance, completely overmatches Russia’s exhausted army.
For all Trump’s bluff and bluster, it is he who can force peace in Europe; let us hope the chance to make a fast buck on Ukrainian rare earth minerals is sufficient to satisfy his lust for a good deal – and ensure lasting peace in Europe.
Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon OBE is a former commander of UK and Nato CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear) forces