A good rookie season can portend a good career. Which NBA rookies have exceeded the expectations of their draft slot the most?
There is a little over a month left in the NBA regular season, and that makes it the perfect time to recap the performance of this year’s rookies.
To do this, we will use our in-house all-in-one metric, DRIP, which projects a player’s contribution to a team’s plus/minus per 100 possessions.
We took the average DRIP of past rookies at the end of their freshman campaign based on the spot they were selected in the draft. To avoid getting too granular, we split certain ranges of picks into groups. In total, we have 11 different groups. Picks 1-5 each have their own groups, 6-10 is a group, 11-14, 15-20, 21-30, 31-45, and 46-60.
Our database goes back to 2012, giving us enough of a range to do some healthy analysis. Here is the average DRIP for all these groups:
DRIP Draft History
Now, with that established, let’s take a look at the six rookies who have most outperformed their draft spot in Year 1.
Honorable Mentions
What kind of list would this be if we didn’t shout out the guys who just missed the cut? It appears the rumors were true about this class being a bit underwhelming, as only the six players discussed here have a DRIP that was not below the average one for their draft place.
However, there were four players whose DRIP scores are only 0.1 under the average of their group. Those guys are Donovan Clingan, Kyshawn George, Ryan Dunn and Kyle Filipowski.
Dishonorable Mentions
While we’re here, we might as well also quickly point out the five guys who most underperformed their group’s average. All five guys were lottery picks, which makes sense because this draft is missing the high-end firepower we’ve seen in the last few seasons.
Anyway, the dishonorable mentions (who have played at least 200 minutes) Tidjane Salaun, Reed Sheppard, Stephon Castle, Cody Williams, and Rob Dillingham.
T-5. Jonathan Mogbo & Quentin Post (DRIP Difference: 0.0)
The reason we have six players on our list and not five is because we have two guys tied for the fifth spot on our list. Both Jonathan Mogbo and Quentin Post were selected in the second round (Mogbo was 31st, and Post was 52nd), and both of them performed exactly as rookies in their group have done in the past.
As it stands, Mogbo has a minus-1.1 DRIP and Post has a -1.2 DRIP.
4. Yves Missi (DRIP Difference: 0.2)
In a season that has been decimated by injuries, Yves Missi has been a bright spot for the New Orleans Pelicans. Normally, you expect players selected between 21-30 in the NBA Draft to have an average DRIP of -1.1, but Missi has managed a -0.9 DRIP this season.
Missi seems to be a great low-usage big man for the Pelicans to build around moving forward. Similar to Dereck Lively II from last year’s draft and Walker Kessler from the year before, Missi can catch lobs (first among rookies in dunks) and offer a strong defensive presence on the inside (0.8 defensive DRIP, 82nd percentile league-wide).
It looks like there is still plenty of value outside of the lottery (as we will continue to see).
Top Rookie Dunkers in 2024-25
T-2. Jaylen Wells (DRIP Difference: 0.7)
Few people expected that the 39th overall pick in the draft, Jaylen Wells, would find himself in a two-man race for NBA Rookie of the Year with Stephon Castle (which is ironic considering his spot on our dishonorable mentions list). But here we are.
With a DRIP of -0.4, Wells is outperforming his group’s average DRIP (31-45) by 0.7. His raw DRIP is also the third highest among all rookies, trailing only the two other players on our list that we haven’t revealed yet.
Wells has been the perfect 3-and-D wing for the sneakily dangerous Memphis Grizzlies (who are sixth in our TRACR metric). On the season, Wells is hitting 36.7% of his 3s, handling tough defensive assignments, and flashing a refined drive game.
T-2. Zach Edey (DRIP Difference 0.7)
Man, do the Grizzlies know how to pick them! Zach Edey joins Wells in a tie for second on our countdown. His raw DRIP of 0.2 (highest among all rookies) outperforms expectations for the 6-10 group by 0.7.
Like Wells, the former back-to-back Naismith Men’s College Player of the Year has been a fixture in the Grizzlies opening lineup – starting in 42 of his 50 games.
Rookie starters on playoff teams
Edey has answered questions about how his game would translate at the NBA level by being a monster presence on the inside, both on defense (94th percentile block rate) and on offense (74th percentile rim efficiency and 88th percentile true shooting). He still needs to find a way to get more shots up (40th percentile field goals per 75 possessions), but the data shows that he’s still killing it.
Edey is the only lottery pick in our top six (the next closest was Clingan).
1. Kel’el Ware (DRIP Difference: 0.9)
Speaking of teams who know how to use their picks, the Miami Heat are giving the Grizzlies a run for their money. Selected just outside of the lottery, Kel’el Ware has outperformed expectations more than any rookie in his class – posting -0.1 DRIP when his group’s average (15-20) is a -1.
It isn’t a stretch (haha, see what we did there?) to say that Ware is basically a supercharged version of Missi. He can catch lobs (second among rookies in dunks), is a burgeoning defensive force (1.0 D-DRIP, 86th percentile), and on top of all that, he can space the floor (42.5% from 3 in his final season of college).
It is worth noting that five of our top six (and two of our four honorable mentions) were big men.
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