The Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors have gotten all the attention lately. Have they been the biggest improvers since the NBA trade deadline?
Luka. LeBron. Jimmy Buckets. Steph Curry. Lakers. Warriors. They’re all anyone has talked about since the trade deadline, right?
So much so that even Charles Barkley had enough of media types trying to turn the NBA into a two-team league, launching one of his rants we’ve all come to love.
But there’s also a reason for that. The star power is there. The big-market focus is there. And the wins have been there as well.
Of course, the Lakers and Warriors made two of the league’s biggest moves right around the trade deadline. Golden State acquired disgruntled star Jimmy Butler from the Miami Heat and Los Angeles had former Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic fall into its lap in one of the most stunning trades in NBA history.
Since Feb. 7 – the day following the trade deadline – only the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have won 15 in a row, have a better record than the Warriors’ 12-2 mark over that span. One of those losses came without Butler, who is averaging slightly more points (17.6/17.0), assists (5.7/4.8) and rebounds (5.7/5.2) than he did with Miami this season.
Golden State gave up Andrew Wiggins, Kyle Anderson and a protected first-round pick for one of the best two-way players in the league, per DRIP (our Daily-updated Rating of Individual Performance). Butler ranks fourth in overall DRIP (4.2) and is one of only five players with at least a 2.0 offensive DRIP and a 1.0 defensive DRIP.
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Entering Thursday’s action, the Lakers had the sixth-best record since Feb. 7 at 10-4. However, they were 10-2 before dropping their first two games of an East Coast trip at Boston and Brooklyn with LeBron James nursing a strained left groin.
Los Angeles also acquired a DRIP All-Star in Doncic. The five-time All-NBA First Team selection ranks second only to Nikola Jokic (5.8) in the metric at 5.4 after averaging 29.7 points, 9.3 assists and 7.2 rebounds over his last six games.
Yes, the Warriors and Lakers are the popular talking points when looking at which teams have improved the most since the trade deadline. But win-loss record or who has the biggest names on the roster probably isn’t the best way to determine that list.
Instead, let’s look at which teams have improved their season projections over the past five weeks. Our projection model takes into account each team’s TRACR, win-loss record and strength of schedule before simulating the remaining schedule to produce our season-long NBA predictions.
TRACR normalizes performance from league environmental factors that can either inflate or deflate numbers. That model uses advanced metrics and other factors on both sides of the ball to calculate how many points per 100 possessions better or worse teams are compared to the league-average club during the season (lower is better for defense).
So have the Warriors and Lakers made the largest improvements since the trade deadline?
Yes and no.
Let’s start with Golden State, which is indeed No. 1 on this list. The Warriors have made the highest jump in the league in expected wins (from 40.4 to 47.1), overall TRACR (minus-0.32 to 3.83), probability of making the playoffs (34.1% to 53.4%) and probability of making the NBA Finals (0.3% to 5.9%).
“Since (Jimmy Butler’s) been here, we’ve walked into every game thinking and believing that we’re going to win that game,” Draymond Green said on NBA on TNT. “And that goes a long way in this league. When you walk in the game like, ‘Ah man, we’re probably gonna lose this game,’ it’s not good. He’s brought back that belief. And I think we’re going to win the championship.”
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But while the Lakers are certainly in a better place with Luka on board, they haven’t made an improvement that competes with the Warriors’ leap.
The Detroit Pistons, who are enjoying a breakthrough season, have had the second-highest jump in expected wins, going from 40.3 to 45.6 over this span. They also have the second-highest increase in TRACR from -0.87 to 2.42 and second-best jump in probability of making the playoffs (an No. 8 seed or higher in the East after the play-in) from 74.6% to 98.3%.
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The Lakers don’t have the second-highest increase in probability of reaching the NBA Finals, either. That distinction goes to the Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics, who have both increased their chances by 3.5% since the trade deadline.
Denver enters Thursday’s play with a 10.1% probability of winning the West, while the Celtics have a 31.5% chance of coming out of the East.
So where do the Lakers rank? Not elite, but not too far behind, either.
With Luka in the mix, they’ve bumped their chances of making the playoffs from 91.1% to 96.9% – the sixth-best jump since Feb. 7. They’ve also raised their probability of winning the Western Conference from 1.6% to 2.6% – the seventh-highest increase.
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In case you’re wondering, the New York Knicks have suffered the biggest drop in NBA Finals probability since the trade deadline at -6.8%. They’ve barely played above .500 over this stretch (8-6) while taking on the league’s toughest strength of schedule – a .560 opponent win percentage based on current record.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have faced the second-toughest schedule (.554) over this span, but they’ve won six in a row heading into March 13. And the Denver Nuggets, with the third-most difficult schedule (.553), have gone 14-5 since Jan. 31.
We mentioned the surprising Pistons earlier, and they’ve taken advantage of the easiest strength of schedule (.421) by going 12-3 since Feb. 7.
As it stands, the Oklahoma City Thunder (77.3%) and Nuggets (30.8%) are most likely to battle in the NBA’s version of the Final Four in the West.
Aside from Warriors (+14.7%), the Nuggets (+8.3%), Houston Rockets (+4.9%) and Timberwolves (+4.8%) have all increased their probability of reaching the West final more than the Lakers (+2.4%) since the deadline.
As much as the media – and likely the league office – would love a Warriors-Lakers clash in the Western Conference finals, our projection model shows there’d likely have to be a few upsets to make that happen.
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