Image created by OIwan Lam with Canva.
United States President Donald Trump’s temporary suspension of the shipments of U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine after his argument with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Oval Office has prompted Taiwan to reflect on the self-ruled region’s strategic relation with the U.S. in the face of China's looming threat.
Taiwan Chipmaker giant TSMC’s announcement that it would invest USD 100 billion in the U.S. further intensifies Taiwan’s sense of insecurity, as the deal may threaten its “Silicon Shield.”
The “Silicon Shield” at stake
Taiwan makes 65 percent of the world’s semiconductor chips and roughly 90 percent of the most advanced computer chips. The engine of this advanced technology is TSMC, which constitutes 15 percent of the region’s GDP and 30 percent of Taiwan’s stock market.
In addition to its economic value, TSMC’s domination in the global chipmaking industry has political implications as it stands at the center of Taiwan’s “Silicon Shield” — a strategy to combat China’s economic and political encroachment of Taiwan by making the island globally indispensable.
Since the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) became the ruling party of Taiwan with the presidential victory of Tsai Ing-wen in 2016, China has imposed economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and military threats to punish the self-ruled region for rejecting the “One China” policy. Communist Party of China (CPC), the ruling party of the People's Republic of China (PRC), claims sovereignty over Taiwan — a self-ruled region first under Kuomingtang, the ruling party of the Republic of China (ROC) upon being defeated in the Chinese Civil War (1945–1949).
The “Silicon Shield” theory assumes that the U.S. would protect Taiwan to prevent Beijing from taking over the vital chip production nexus.However, Trump's hostile stance toward allies and unpredictable nature have made many wonder whether the U.S. can be relied upon as a dependable ally. Trump has accused Taiwan of inadequate defense spending and stealing America’s semiconductor industry since he took the U.S. presidential office in early 2025.
While the Taiwanese government promised to raise its defense spending to3 percent of its GDP in early March, Trump’s national security advisor,Elbridge Colby, said Taiwan needs to spend at least10 percent on defense.
In addition, TSMC, with the Taiwanese government as its largest individual shareholder, announced a plan to invest USD 100 billion in building five new facilities in the U.S. The investment figure equals half of the company’s USD 204 billion total assets in 2024, and by 2030, TSMC’s investment in the U.S. will reach USD 165 billion.
Hence, some Taiwanese described the deal as political blackmail, which would eventually undermine Taiwan’s security as TSMC would face pressure to transfer its advanced production technology, increase its labour cost and hence weaken Taiwan’s dominant position in advanced chip production:
Taiwan’s ‘silicon shield’ is under scrutiny. Trump’s TSMC deal is a massive boost to U.S. chip production, but some in Taiwan fear it weakens their security. Will the island democracy lose its tech edge — and its strategic leverage? Taipei insists its most advanced AI chip… pic.twitter.com/MzVqyADa68
— Will Ripley (@willripleyCNN) March 6, 2025
Yet, whether the deal could keep Taiwan secure has remained in question. When asked during a press conference if the investment plan would minimisethe impact on the U.S. technology sector should China decide to isolate or annex Taiwan, Donald Trumpreplied:
…I can't say minimise, that would be a catastrophic event obviously. But it will at least give us a position where we have this very very important business we would have a very big part of it in the United States. So it would have a big impact if something should happen with Taiwan.
Trump's reply has unnerved many Taiwanese people. In a popular post on Facebook, a video game blogger @cheapAOEcommented on Trump's position with an allegory:
好像有一棟房子(台灣)，對美國非常重要，因為裡面放了值錢的東西(台積電)，然而房子旁邊住了一個強盜(中國)，一直想要霸佔房子
結果美國的作法，是把家裡最值錢的搬回自己家，以防強盜真的進來，至少還能保住一些財產，而不是在房子周圍設置圍牆或請保全，而是默默接受，強盜可能會闖進來的事實
It is as if there is a house (Taiwan) that is very important to the United States because it contains valuable things (TSMC). Yet, a robber (China) who lives next door has been trying to take over the house.
However, the U.S. way of handling the situation is to take the most valuables away from that house and store them in their own home so that if the robber breaks in, they can retain some of the property. Rather than securing the house with a wall or a guard, they just accept the reality that the robber would break in.
However, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te defended the TSMC investment plan, describing it as the“historical moment” of Taiwan-U.S. relations. Some analysts support Lai’s explination, such as “U.S.-Taiwan Watch”, a Taiwanese group on Facebook:
現在台積電真的就是護國神山了，有他們鎮住了整個美國MAGA派，未來四年我們的地緣政治安全保障是先入袋一半。未來我們需要持續跟美國溝通的就是，美國需要再釋出更多安全保障訊號，以阻止川普口中的「毀滅性的災難」，也就是要再更多嚇阻中國的訊號。
Now, TSMC is really the protector of the country. With them holding down the entire US MAGA faction, our geopolitical security for the next four years is partially guaranteed. In the future, we just need to persuade the U.S. to release more security signals to stop what Trump calls a ‘catastrophe”, that is, more signals to deter China.
The analysts say that it will take years to build the infrastructure and fully accomplish the plan laid out in the USD 100 billion investment, leading many to believe that the deal can prevent the “Make American Great Again” (MAGA) advocates from going after Taiwan on other issues, such astariff threats.
“Today Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan”
However, their optimism is not widely shared. Doubt and anxiety about the U.S.'s changing position in foreign politics among Taiwanese people has surged sinceDonald Trump’s disastrous meeting with Zelensky on February 28as the U.S. President positioned himself as a middleman to “make a deal” to end Russia's war on Ukraine without addressing Ukraine’s need for future security guarantees. Even worse, he accused Zelensky of not wanting peace and “gambling” with lives and World War III, stressing that Ukraine has “no cards” to bargain with. Soon after the Oval Office confrontation, Trumpsuspended military aidto Ukraine and even withheld crucial intelligence that has led to hundreds of deaths.
Both Taiwan and Ukraine have faced similar military threats from powerful states, namely China and Russia, which cite historical and cultural ties to justify their sovereignty over their neighbours. Both Taiwan and Ukraine had reached out to the U.S. and received substantial support from former U.S. President Joe Biden. But Trump has taken a U-turn by supporting the encroaching states which hold the so-called “cards” in their hands.
That’s why those Taiwanese who support Ukraine are worried that Trump will eventually betray Taiwan. A post shared on Taiwanese Ukraine Concern Group, for example,commented:
他正在改變這個世界對信任和和平的定義走向叢林法則，然而這樣的法則是非常不利於小國的生存，比拳頭我們比不過中國，當台灣有了麻麻煩川普也不會和我們講道義，他只要台積電就像他只要烏克蘭的礦產一樣。
等到我們有需求於他，那個被羞辱被霸凌的就會是台灣，川普既走向孤立主義，他也不會在亞太投入更多兵力和資金去維持第一島鏈，直接和中共當好朋友錢就直接省下來，就像他親近普丁一樣的思維，烏克蘭，只是他手上的牌而己，台灣也沒什麼不同。
He [Trump] is changing the definition of trust and peace into the law of the jungle, which is very unfavorable to the survival of small countries. Our military strength is incomparable with China's. When Taiwan has trouble, Trump will not stand up for justice. He only wants TSMC, just like he only wants Ukraine's rare minerals.
One day, when we need his help, Taiwan would be the one being humiliated and bullied. Trump has chosen isolationism and will not invest more troops and spendings to maintainthe first island chain in the Asia-Pacific. Making friends with China will save all the money. Such rationality is reflected in his relationship with Putin. Ukraine is just a card he plays, and Taiwan is no different.
In the past few years, pro-Taiwan status quo politicians and activists have used the slogan “Today’s Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan” to unite Taiwanese people in the face of China's military threats.After Trump's attack on Zelensky, the same slogan spread doubt about America and anxiety about Taiwan's future.
Meanwhile, Taiwan’s pro-Chinese politicians, including former Taiwan President and KMT leader Ma Ying-jeou, took the opportunity to criticise the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and Lai’s leadership:
3/7 Former Taiwan President Ying-jeou Ma called for the current administration to protect TSMC due to its great importance in national security and asked, ‘is selling TSMC is enough?’ and ‘what else is left to sell later?’ $TSM #semiconductors https://t.co/O0sLF4cAtQ
— Dan Nystedt (@dnystedt) March 5, 2025