Portugal will face an early election on 18 May, its third in just three years, after parliament toppled Prime Minister Luis Montenegro’s centre-right minority government in a confidence vote.
The collapse may delay some key decisions, including a plan to privatize state-owned airline TAP SA this year and investments in infrastructure. Montenegro’s administration, which took office less than a year ago, also aimed to increase defense spending like other European nations.
Montenegro, 52, has led the PSD party since 2022 and plans to seek re-election. It will likely be a close race against Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos, 47, whose party is currently the biggest opposition group. Santos, a former infrastructure minister, is often linked to the leftmost wing of the party and he’s been a defender of the state’s role in controlling certain businesses, including the country’s carrier.
A poll published by TVI on Sunday showed the ruling AD coalition leading with 34% support, followed by the Socialists on 29% and far-right party Chega on 14%. Another opinion poll published by Jornal de Negocios on Tuesday showed the Socialists ahead by 1.5 percentage point.
The date of the election was announced late Thursday by President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who said nobody wanted this new snap vote.
#### Avoiding blame
Both Santos and Montenegro say they’re in favour of political stability, and have tried to avoid being blamed for causing another early election.
The premier requested the confidence vote last week, saying he wanted to clarify whether his government had the support to carry out its programme after struggling to put an end to speculation about potential conflicts of interest related to a company owned by his family. He will likely continue to face questions on the issue during the campaign. The Socialists and far-right party Chega both voted against the government on Tuesday.
Minority governments in Portugal have tended to be short-lived: In 50 years of democracy, only two have survived a full four-year term. The Socialists and Montenegro’s center-right PSD party, the senior partner in the AD coalition, have dominated politics over those five decades. Still, new parties have been formed and are challenging the two main centrist groups.
Chega has emerged as a new force, quadrupling its number of seats in parliament in the last election in March 2024. While Prime Minister Montenegro could have secured majority support in parliament by forging a deal with the far-right party, he ruled out an agreement to get its backing.
Andre Ventura, a former tax inspector who leads Chega, has appealed to a growing number of disgruntled voters by blaming successive centre-left and centre-right governments for what he says is systemic corruption in Portugal.
Source: Bloomberg