Will Arne Slot secure his first trophy as Liverpool boss, or will Eddie Howe end Newcastle‘s remarkable drought? Look ahead to the 2024-25 League Cup final with our Liverpool vs Newcastle prediction and preview.
Liverpool vs Newcastle Stats: Key League Cup Final Insights
Liverpool emerged victorious inside 90 minutes in 58.4% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations.
The Reds are aiming to equal Manchester United’s record for the most domestic English cup titles.
Newcastle United haven’t won a major English cup competition for 70 years.
Sunday’s EFL Cup final promises to be a momentous occasion; either Liverpool will equal Manchester United’s record for the most domestic cup trophies in English football history, or Newcastle United will end an astonishing major silverware drought that spans seven decades.
Defending League Cup champions Liverpool will take their English cup trophies tally to 19 with success at Wembley, drawing level with their bitter rivals and providing manager Arne Slot with his first taste of glory since joining the Reds.
While that would likely be followed by the Premier League title next month, prevailing on Sunday will go a long way to wiping their disappointing UEFA Champions League exit from their minds.
But it’s difficult to imagine success meaning more to anyone than it would to Newcastle this weekend, with the Magpies last winning major domestic honours way back in 1955 when they lifted the FA Cup.
Since then, Newcastle have lost five major domestic cup finals (2x League Cup, 3x FA Cup), with only Chelsea ever having a longer run (3x League Cup, 3x FA Cup since 2019). Of course, they reached this stage just two years ago but ultimately lost to Erik ten Hag’s Man Utd.
This, then, will be their third League Cup final appearance, with the other way back in 1976. Liverpool, on the other hand, will be competing in their 15th showpiece in this competition; their 10 successes is a record matched by no one.
That goes some way to painting a picture of what Newcastle are up against on Sunday, as does the fact they’ve lost each of their last nine games at Wembley, which is the worst run of any side in the stadium’s history.
Those aren’t the only omens in Liverpool’s favour. On each of the past four occasions that the League Cup holders have reached the final, they’ve gone on to lift the trophy again. Man Utd did it in 2009-10, before Manchester City did so in 2018-19, 2019-20 and 2020-21 as part of a run of four successive triumphs in the competition.
If Eddie Howe and Newcastle do manage to upset the odds, it wouldn’t just be a stunning achievement for the club. It would also be a notable moment more broadly speaking for English managers.
That’s because no English boss has won a major trophy with a Premier League club since 2008, when Harry Redknapp guided Portsmouth to unlikely FA Cup glory. Similarly, no English manager has lifted the League Cup since Steve McClaren (with Middlesbrough) in 2004.
Howe won’t be getting carried away dreaming about such landmarks, however. How could you when you know Mohamed Salah awaits on Sunday?
Mohamed Salah goal involvements Premier League 2024-25
Not only is the Egyptian enjoying probably the best season of his career and arguably one of greatest by any Premier League player ever, he also loves facing Newcastle.
Salah has been directly involved in 18 goals in 16 appearances against Newcastle for Liverpool in all competitions (10 goals, 8 assists), only managing more against Man Utd (22) and Man City (21).
Not that Newcastle don’t have weapons of their own.
Their hopes potentially hinge on Alexander Isak playing a blinder against Virgil van Dijk, and while that’s something few have ever achieved, the Sweden international does at least have previous against the Reds. He’s had a hand in four goals across his five meetings with them (3 goals, 1 assist – all in the Premier League), which includes scoring and assisting when Newcastle and Liverpool last met in December 2024 at St. James’ Park.
Nevertheless, Newcastle’s chances won’t be helped by the absences of Anthony Gordon (suspended) and Lewis Hall (out for the season), meaning they’ll be without both first-choice options on their left flank. Jamaal Lascelles and Sven Botman also remain out for the foreseeable future.
Liverpool will likely be thrilled about Gordon’s absence in particular as both of their senior right-backs are missing. Conor Bradley isn’t expected back from a thigh injury until April, while Trent Alexander-Arnold would be a shock inclusion after being forced off injured in Tuesday’s costly Champions League defeat to Paris Saint-Germain.
Liverpool vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Beyond Newcastle’s poor run in finals and at Wembley, they’ve also got a dreadful record against Liverpool.
The Magpies are winless in their last 17 meetings with the Reds in all competitions (D5 L12 – all in the Premier League) since a 2-0 home win under McClaren in December 2015. Only against Man Utd from 2002 to 2011 have the Magpies ever gone longer without a victory over any opponent in their history (19 games).
There isn’t an extensive history of this fixture in the League Cup, though, for what it’s worth.
This will be just their third meeting in the League Cup – Newcastle won 1-0 at Anfield in the 1995-96 fourth round, before Liverpool won 2-0 at St. James’ Park in the 1997-98 quarter-final.
Sunday will also be only the second domestic cup final between these clubs after Liverpool won 3-0 in the 1974 FA Cup final.
As such, it’ll be the 20th different fixture to be played in the final of both the FA Cup and League Cup.
Liverpool vs Newcastle H2H All Time
Liverpool vs Newcastle Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Liverpool comprehensive favourites for the League Cup final, with the Reds winning inside 90 minutes in 58.4% of the latest 10,000 simulations.
Nevertheless, that still means Newcastle at the very least took the game to extra-time (and potentially penalties) in 41.6% of the sims. Contributing to that figure, the Magpies won inside 90 minutes 20.8% of the time.
Liverpool vs Newcastle Prediction - League Cup final
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of Sunday’s kick-off at Wembley stadium, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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