Portugal has slammed the lid on any flicker of hope that it might one day strap into Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Lightning II, a move that doesn’t so much cancel a deal as it torches a notion that’s been smoldering for years.
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In a straight-shooting interview with the Portuguese outlet Público on March 13, 2025, Defense Minister Nuno Melo laid down the law: the fifth-generation jet isn’t in Portugal’s future, and Donald Trump’s fresh stint in the White House is a glaring reason why.
This isn’t just a footnote from across the pond—it’s a blaring alarm about how a NATO ally is weighing U.S. trustworthiness in an era that’s starting to feel like a geopolitical rollercoaster.
Portugal is reconsidering the multi-billion dollar purchase of 28 American F-35 fighters, after changes in what the Portuguese Minister of Defense calls the "predictability of our allies."
Portugal will examine European alternatives as it ramps up defense spending. pic.twitter.com/4FJKZSsbvt
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 13, 2025
Melo didn’t beat around the bush when he pinned the decision on broader doubts. “The recent position of the United States forces us to consider the best options because the predictability of our allies is a greater value to take into account,” he told Público.
Let’s cut through the noise: Portugal wasn’t backing out of a signed contract—there was never ink on the dotted line for F-35s. This is about snuffing out a possibility that’s been rattling around for over half a decade, one that flared up hot just last year before crashing into the brick wall of a Trump-led America.
Barely two months into his second term as of March 2025, Trump’s early growls at NATO have Portugal second-guessing its dalliance with U.S. hardware—and the F-35 just got caught in the crossfire.
The Portuguese Air Force has been riding American steel since the 1990s when it scooped up 40 F-16 Fighting Falcons under the Peace Atlantis I and II programs. Those jets—a cocktail of factory-fresh A/B models and a later haul of second-hand birds from U.S. reserves—have been Portugal’s aerial spine, slicing through Atlantic winds and clocking time on NATO patrols.
A mid-life overhaul in the 2010s kept them from the scrap heap, trading rusty guts for sharper avionics, better sensors, and a punchier weapons loadout. Today, roughly 30 F-16s keep the lights on at Monte Real Air Base, humming along on missions from air defense to alliance exercises.
But they’re running on borrowed time—by the 2030s, they’ll hit 40 years in the sky, a looming expiration date that’s forced Lisbon to peek over the horizon for what’s next.
That’s where the F-35 once shimmered as a prospect—not a locked-in purchase, but a serious contender. Rewind to 2019, and Portugal was nosing around the Joint Strike Fighter scene, sitting in on casual chats about maybe picking up the jet someday.
No orders got stamped, and no delivery schedules scribbled, but the idea stuck like glue. Fast-forward to April 2024, and the head of the Portuguese Air Force, General João Cartaxo Alves, turned the heat up high. In an interview with Diário de Notícias, he dropped a bombshell, claiming Portugal was in “transition” toward the F-35, tossing out a €5.5 billion price tag and name-dropping “workshops with Lockheed and the U.S. Air Force.”
It wasn’t just talk—it painted a picture of a small NATO player gearing up to leap into fifth-generation territory, rubbing shoulders with the likes of Norway and the Netherlands.
The buzz didn’t last a week. The Portuguese Ministry of Defense swooped in fast, pouring cold water on the hype. No formal procurement was underway, they said—Cartaxo Alves’ big talk was a “future vision,” not a check in the mail. The country’s military program, updated in March 2023, backed that up, showing no line item for F-35s, and no budget carved out. But don’t write it off as hot air.
That moment wasn’t some rogue general spinning yarns—it showed Portugal was genuinely chewing on the idea, weighing the jet’s stealth cloak and sensor wizardry against the hefty cost and the baggage of tying up with Uncle Sam. Melo’s 2025 shutdown slams that door shut for good, and Trump’s long shadow is a big part of why it’s staying locked.
Trump’s first term was a NATO gut check, with him hammering allies over defense budgets and dangling threats to pull U.S. support if they didn’t pony up more cash. His 2025 comeback has cranked that volume back up, with early remarks doubling down on pushing Europe to “pay their fair share.”
Portugal, clocking in at about 1.5% of GDP on defense—below NATO’s 2% benchmark but in line with its economic muscle—could feel that squeeze hard. Melo didn’t slap Trump’s name on it, but “predictability” isn’t a throwaway line here. If Portugal ever saw the F-35 as its ticket to the big leagues, the risk of a shaky U.S. partner has burned that dream to ash before it could even taxi down the runway.
The F-35’s whole gig makes that risk hit harder. This isn’t just a jet—it’s a system lashed tight to American reins. Software patches roll out from U.S. servers, spare parts ship from U.S. warehouses, and even the green light to fly loops through U.S. command.
For Portugal, which leans on its air force to patrol its Atlantic turf and back NATO ops, that reliance could turn into a chokehold if Trump’s policies zig when they should zag.
His rap sheet—trade wars that rattled markets, snap troop pullbacks that left allies scrambling, cozy chats with rivals—only stokes the fire of doubt. Melo’s play reads like a dodge: why roll the dice on a jet that could leave you high and dry if the White House throws a wrench in the works?
Across NATO, the F-35 has dug its talons in deep. The U.S. flies hundreds, with plans to rack up over 2,400 across its Army, Navy, and Air Force fleets. Allies like the UK, Italy, and Norway are already airborne, cutting through skies with their own squadrons, while Belgium and Poland have jets lined up in the pipeline.
As of March 2025, 14 NATO nations are either flying or waiting on F-35s, locking it in as the alliance’s top bird. For Lockheed Martin, every potential customer is a lifeline. Foreign sales keep the factory humming in Fort Worth, Texas, softening the blow of the Pentagon’s $1.7 trillion-plus investment. Portugal was never a sure bet, but it’s hard “no” prick the bubble of F-35 inevitability just the same.
Stateside, the news is pinging through defense circles like a sonar blip. Insiders, speaking off the record, say the Pentagon and Lockheed are keeping close tabs. No official statement’s dropped from Washington yet, but the timing—just weeks into Trump’s term—puts the administration in a tight spot.
The White House has sold the F-35 as a unifier, a way to stitch NATO together with shared tech and tight-knit ops. Portugal’s rejection, even of a what-if buy, frays that story at the edges. Congressional hawks, always eager to crack the whip on European freeloaders, might grab it as ammo to push harder.
Lockheed’s stock, which has ridden high on F-35 exports, could twitch if more allies start waffling—nearly a third of the 1,000-plus jets delivered by early 2025 have gone overseas, and every sale counts.
What Portugal pivots to next is a blank canvas. Melo didn’t spill any tea in Público, leaving the runway wide open for speculation. The F-16s can limp along with more upgrades—new radars to spot farther, slicker missiles to hit harder—but that’s a patch job, not a long-term fix.
European rigs like the Eurofighter Typhoon or Dassault Rafale keep popping up in the rumor mill, offering a clean break from U.S. strings. The Typhoon, flown by Germany, Spain, and the UK, packs a multirole punch and slots into NATO’s playbook, though its price tag rivals the F-35’s.
The Rafale, a French bruiser, brings combat cred and freedom from American supply chains, but syncing it with Portugal’s U.S.-built fleet would be a logistical nightmare—think rewiring a house while the lights are still on. For now, the defense ministry’s zipped up tight, with no contracts in sight.
The stakes reach way beyond Portugal’s hangars. Its Atlantic perch makes it a keystone in NATO’s western wall, especially as Russian subs and surface ships poke around more often, testing the edges of allied waters.
The F-35’s stealth cloak and sensor suite would’ve handed Lisbon a razor-sharp edge in that cat-and-mouse game—something its aging F-16s can’t even fake. Whatever lands next will carve out Portugal’s weight in the alliance, and by proxy, how the U.S. projects its muscle across the ocean. If other small NATO players—say, Slovakia or Romania—start sniffing around non-American kit, the ripples could swell into a tide.
For the U.S., this is a gut punch worth mulling over. The F-35 has clawed through delays, cost overruns that’d make your eyes water, and tech gremlins that kept engineers up at night, but its juice flows from allied buy-in. Portugal’s snub isn’t a death knell—it was never in the bag—but it’s a crack in the armor.
Lockheed leans on exports to keep unit costs from spiraling, with foreign sales making up a chunky slice of the 1,000-plus F-35s delivered by early 2025. The Pentagon bets on shared systems to keep NATO humming as a single unit—jets talking to jets, bases linked to bases. If Trump’s approach spooks more allies into bolting, that equation starts to wobble.
Melo’s words in Público leave zero room for backtracking: the F-35’s a non-starter for Portugal, whether it was ever a real shot or just a gleam in some general’s eye. The F-16s will keep chugging along for now, patched up and purring, buying time as Lisbon maps its next move.
Across the Atlantic, American brass will be dialed in, ears perked, wondering if one ally’s cold feet could chill a bond that’s held the West together for decades.
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