Speaking to media on the sidelines of the Global Baku Forum, Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov unexpectedly announced that the text of the Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan had been finalised. Made up of 17 points, two of which had not until now been agreed, the news came like a bolt out of the blue. As was already known, those last points concerned withdrawing international court cases against each other and not deployingthird country forces on their common border.
This followed the effective resignation of Yeghishe Kirakosyan, Armenia’s Representative for International Legal Affairs, earlier this month while the second specifically relates to the European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) that was extended for a second two year term last month. Details on when any departure might be but EUMA's current deployment ends in February 2027.
The Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs was quick to confirm the news, announcing it was ready to “initiate consultations with […] Azerbaijan regarding the time and venue for the signing” of the agreement. It however remains unclear whether Baku is in such a hurry given that it still expects a controversial preamble to the Armenian constitution be removed. Nonetheless, the feeling in Armenia is that Pashinyan will do so when a referendum, the text of which should be ready by the next parliamentary elections in mid-2026, is held.
For Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, it remains important that any new constitution is not seen as forced by Baku. A day before Bayramov’s announcement, Pashinyan again announced that it was not. This is perhaps partly true. Baku has long demanded that the preamble be removed while Pashinyan has wanted to change the constitution ever since taking power in 2018. He continues to deny such accusations domestically, only admitting that it will have “regional significance.”
Pashinyan now seeks to transform Armenia from the third republic formed after independence in 1991 to a fourth post-2020 conflict iteration or as he terms it, from Historical Armenia to Real Armenia. Though there are other outstanding issues excluded from the treaty, such as the dissolution of the now defunct OSCE Minsk Group and the unblocking of regional transportation, the news is a notable step forwards. Nonetheless, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev still voiced skepticism that Yerevan can be trusted. “We need documents,” he said.
This particularly refers to the constitutional referendum but not only. However, Pashinyan last month launched a nationwide discussion on his vision of an Armenia where its population is more empowered and that is not at odds with its neighbours. He will also have to contend with inevitable opposition, not only from those political parties under the tutelage of former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, but even from within an increasingly politicised and polarised civil society, some of which that consider Pashinyan’s peace agenda as “capitulation.”
Pashinyan is likely to be able to counter such criticism. Even if his ratings remain low, they are higher than any alternative when taken separately. The opposition also remains unable to unite while the electorate remains unlikely to forgive let alone forget two decades of corruption and authoritarianism under his predecessors. Moreover, although the population still remains hesitant to support a new constitution, that is slowly changing. Some 59.6 percent of respondents in a survey this month said they were against doing so but a year ago that figure was around 80 percent. A large number still remain undecided.
In the coming year, Pashinyan will have to work hard to convince more to support the change, something that could be less problematic packaged as it is likely to be among other provisions. The government also this month invited Turkish media to Yerevan to interview Pashinyan and other officials. Breaking out of three decades of regional semi-isolation that limits economic growth and prevents diversification remains as pressing as ever. The same day as Bayramov’s announcement, a senior Turkish official again confirmed that the normalisation of relations between Yerevan and Ankara remains contingent on those between Yerevan and Baku.
Even so, the text of the agreement to normalise relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan potentially marks a new phase in talks even if some kind of joint statement or declaration would not go amiss. The sides could also first initial the pages of the concluded document, as suggested by Baku prior to last year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference in Baku. A constitutional referendum is anyway not expected until mid-2026 at the earliest so now is the time to finally implement confidence building measures between the sides, including people to people contact.
The opportunity is there. It is time to take it before global and regional geopolitical shifts and upheavals again disrupt or obstruct what would be a landmark development for the entire region.
source: Onnik James Krikorian is a journalist, photojournalist, and consultant from the U.K. who has covered the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict since 1994.
Photo: Generated via Grok © Onnik James Krikorian 2023
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