If Moscow agrees to a ceasefire, analysts believe Russia has multiple ways to undermine it
Russia is expected to set deliberately unworkable conditions on Ukraine as President Vladimir Putin seeks to stall peace talks and further his territorial ambitions, experts have told The i Paper.
The warning comes after US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin to discuss a proposed 30-day ceasefire, following Ukraine’s agreement to a temporary truce on Tuesday.
The Kremlin said it is “cautiously optimistic” about a ceasefire in Ukraine after a late-night meeting with the US envoy that will is likely to lead to a phone call between Putin and Donald Trump.
But early indications from Moscow suggest that Russia is unwilling to accept any deal soon.
Putin has said he agrees with the idea of a ceasefire in Ukraine, but that “questions” remain about the nature of a truce and he has a number of tough conditions for peace.
Speaking at a news conference alongside Belarus’s leader Alexander Lukashenko on Thursday, Putin asked: “Who will give orders to cease hostilities, and what will these orders be worth?” Where a “violation of the possible ceasefire agreement” has taken place, he questioned, who would mediate it?
“All these issues need to be painstakingly studied by both sides,” he added.
Analysts see this rhetoric as part of a broader Kremlin strategy to drag out negotiations while continuing to gain ground. Even as talks continue, Russian forces have seized the town of Sudzha in Kursk and made fresh advances in eastern Ukraine.
“The ball is in Russia’s court, but prevailing conditions on the battlefield suggest a ceasefire is not in Russia’s interest at the moment,” said Alexander Lord, a defence analyst at Sibylline.
“Russia will likely conflate a temporary ceasefire with broader negotiations to end the war – a delaying tactic while it continues to gain the upper hand. Moscow may present impossible demands to buy more time and make further advances.”
How Putin could break a ceasefire
Even if Moscow agrees to a ceasefire, analysts believe Russia has multiple ways to undermine it.
Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director-general at defence think-tank Rusi, said Russia would likely push for specific “clarifications and conditions” designed to be unacceptable to Ukraine.
“For example, Russia could insist there be no Nato or European forces on Ukrainian soil during the ceasefire and that Ukraine demilitarise. The US may agree to some of these conditions,” he said.
Another possibility is that Russia could use the ceasefire to stockpile weapons from allies like Iran, tilting the battlefield in its favour once fighting resumes. “If the US agrees to cut military support for Ukraine while Russia re-stocks, then a ceasefire may only serve Moscow’s interests,” Lord warned.
Alternatively, Russia could accept the deal only to later manufacture a violation -staging a false flag attack as a pretext to resume hostilities.
“Even if the Kremlin agrees, the chances of the ceasefire holding are slim,” Giles said. “Russia has ample opportunities to stage incidents, blame Ukraine, and reignite the war.”
This could allow Moscow to seize the rest of its desired four regions – and possibly go a step further, by taking even more territory, experts warn.
As negotiations unfold, Moscow has already intensified its propaganda campaign, seeking to paint President Volodymyr Zelensky as the true obstacle to peace.
“Russia does not want Zelensky to stay in power, so it will work to undermine him,” said Olena Borodyna, a Senior Geopolitical Risks Advisor at Overseas Development Institute (ODI).
One key tactic is amplifying calls for Zelensky’s resignation or pushing for elections.
“There’s no pro-Russian political force that could win an election in Ukraine, so Moscow will seek to exploit political divisions, weaken Zelensky’s government, and attack the office of the presidency,” Borodyna added.
Russia could also use a ceasefire to consolidate control over occupied territories, integrating their resources into its economy.
“Russia’s critical minerals strategy, published in 2024, already signals its intent to absorb resources from these regions into its supply chain,” Borodyna said.
“Under the cover of a ceasefire, Moscow could accelerate its extraction and export of minerals from the four seized regions – while using elections that exclude these areas to cement their separation from Ukraine.”
While Ukraine and the US push for a pause in fighting, Putin’s Kremlin is weighing how best to manipulate the negotiations to its advantage.
What has Ukraine agreed to so far?
Kyiv has agreed to an “immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire which can be extended”.
A joint US-Ukraine statement confirmed that Washington would “immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine.” Notably, however, there was no mention of “security guarantees” – the kind of commitment that would ensure Western protection if Russia reneged on the ceasefire.
While US President Donald Trump has ruled out Ukraine’s Nato membership, the proposed deal also made no reference to freezing fighting along current frontlines or making territorial concessions – despite Trump previously suggesting that Kyiv would need to cede land.
The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who led the negotiations, said the ball was “now in Russia’s court.”
Moscow immediately dismissed the deal. “It gives us nothing,” Ushakov said. “It only gives the Ukrainians an opportunity to regroup, gain strength, and continue the same thing.”
But experts say this is a predictable maneuver. Russia, they argue, will use previously made US concessions – on Nato and territorial cessions – to push for more.
“Ukraine is being coerced into a ceasefire by the US. Russia can use this as leverage to push additional demands before agreeing to any truce,” said Keir Giles, a Russia expert with Chatham House. “Russia has been handed an opportunity to ask for more, and it will take full advantage.”
What more could Putin want?
Moscow’s claims its war aims remain largely unchanged: securing full control over Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia – four regions it has partially annexed.
While Trump has floated the idea of freezing the conflict along current frontlines, experts believe Putin may demand that Ukraine withdraw entirely from these territories.
TOPSHOT - In this grab taken from a handout footage released by the Kremlin on March 12, 2025, Russia's President Vladimir Putin visits a command point for the Kursk group of troops involved in the counteroffensive in the Kursk region, amid the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict. (Photo by Handout / KREMLIN.RU / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / Kremlin.ru / handout" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS (Photo by HANDOUT/KREMLIN.RU/AFP via Getty Images)
Putin made a surprise trip to Kursk this week – the first time since Ukraine’s surprise attack in 2024 (Photo: Screengrab from Kremlin footage/AFP)
“Russia has repeatedly said it will not accept a ceasefire until Ukraine withdraws from all the territory Moscow has annexed,” Lord explained. “But they may also push for control over major cities like Zaporizhzhia and Sloviansk. These are huge urban hubs that would take years to capture if the West continues arming Ukraine.”
Despite the US agreeing to resume intelligence-sharing, Russia may insist on an end to all Western aid, hampering Ukraine’s ability to defend itself in the future.
Meanwhile, Trump has ruled out new sanctions against Russia. “I can do things financially that would be very bad for Russia. I don’t want to do that because I want to get peace,” he told reporters in the White House on Wednesday.
Giles said this could embolden the Kremlin to go even further. “Russia may demand the lifting of Western sanctions and the unfreezing of Russian assets,” he warned.