Mar 14, 2025 [Dambisa Moyo](/columnist/dambisa-moyo)
While it appears unlikely that US GDP will contract in the first quarter, the economy could enter recession territory in the second or third quarter of 2025. If a recession does materialize, its magnitude and duration would depend largely on factors that remain impossible to predict – notably, tariffs and geopolitics.
LONDON – The US stock market’s downward trend appears to be continuing, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 down 4% and 6%, respectively, this year. And this is just one of many signals that should prompt any sensible business leader, investor, or policymaker to start preparing for a US economic slowdown, or even a recession.