The fact that last year’s winner of the Ballon d’Or, Manchester City lynchpin Rodri, is out for the rest of the season with an ACL injury, all attention is on who will be the next winner of the biggest prize in world football, albeit from an individual perspective.
As we take stock of the 2024/25 campaign, which is slowly but surely reaching its conclusion, there are a quartet of players who are standing shoulders above the rest of the pack while others are trying to do anything between now and the end of play to better their position.
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Mohamed Salah of Liverpool, Real Madrid’s talisman in Kylian Mbappe, his teammate Vinicius Jr and Barcelona hotshot Raphinha are four wingers that are taking football by storm this campaign – and it’s likely one of them will pick up the accolade.
But stripping their performances from the 2024/25 season back to basics, what do the statistics – using FBref and breaking each player's respective campaigns into general, shooting, creating and miscellaneous departments – suggest?
General Statistics
Salah, Liverpool's go-to man, dominates
Before we take a deeper dive into each player’s metrics – from goal-creating actions to carries into the final third – let’s take a look at the tip of the iceberg: matches played and how well they perform in the final third in terms of goals and assists.
And, to very little surprise, Liverpool’s Salah is superior to the rest. In 42 appearances this term, he’s accrued a rate of 0.80 goals per 90. Raphinha’s 0.73 is second best, while Mbappe receives the bronze medal with 0.70 goals per 90.
Even from an assist perspective, the Egyptian – regarded as one of the best wingers in Premier League history – comes out on top with 0.55 per 90. Mbappe (0.10) ranks lowest of the tetrad, while Vinicius and Raphinha have racked up 0.26 and 0.46, respectively.
Vinicius Jr, Salah, Mbappe, Raphinha - 24/25 General Stats
Metric
Matches played
Minutes
Goals per 90
Assists per 90
Shooting Statistics
Albeit not as potent, Mbappe is the most accurate
By virtue of all players being deployed on either wing, goalscoring is an important part of their respective repertoires: Salah, who has secured one Premier League and Champions League apiece at Anfield, may be known for his sharpshooting, but it’s Mbappe who reigns supreme in most metrics.
The French forward, 26, has accrued an expected goals rate of 0.77 per 90 – which is superior to his Liverpool counterpart’s 0.77 per 90 since the current campaign got underway in August. Vinicius and Raphinha, two Brazil internationals, are operating at a much lower rate.
Mbappe’s shots per 90 rate (4.33) this season has also been the best (4.33 compared to Salah’s 3.33, Vinicius’ 3.17 and Raphinha 3.72). Of those, 2.23 are on target per 90 and his shot accuracy rate of 51.4% is also top of the quartet by quite some margin.
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In terms of goal-creating actions (which can be described as a pass, a take-on or drawing a foul leading to a goal). It is the former Leeds United man Raphinha who comes out on top as, per 90, the Brazilian hotshot racks up a rate of 0.85.
Level on 0.75 GCA per 90 are Salah and Vinicius, whereas Paris-born Mbappe’s 0.47 is categorically the lowest of the four world-beating footballers, all of whom have the world on their shoulders. All in all, however, Real Madrid’s marquee summer addition is a shooting anomaly.
Vinicius Jr, Salah, Mbappe, Raphinha - 24/25 Attacking Stats
Metric
xG (expected goals)
Shots per 90
Shots on target per 90
Shot accuracy (%)
Goal-creating actions per 90
Creation Statistics
Barcelona's Raphinha is a creation monster
While all four are expected to be potent in front of goal, their roles and responsibilities transcend into creating chances for fellow teammates, doesn’t it? And that’s the department where Raphinha, linked with a move to Liverpool this summer, excels at his best on the left flank in Spain.
Raphinha has shone in a side packed to the brim with talent – Pedri, Gavi and Lamine Yamal spring to mind – and, in the process, has chalked up an xA (expected assist) rate of 0.33 per 90. Only Vinicius (0.26) and Salah (0.18) come close.
Mbappe, in comparison, struggles in that regard. The former Monaco man, one of the most expensive strikers in football history, also attempts the least passes – 32.9. Raphinha attempts a quartet-best of 46.4, compared to that of 33.8 for both Vinicius and Salah.
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That said, Mbappe’s low attempt rate betters his completion rate (81.7%), whereas Raphinha’s number of completed passes takes a hit as he is more proactive – but that’s part and parcel of being a persistent threat in the final third with Robert Lewandowki and Yamal to pass to.
On that sentiment of having youth and experience alongside him in Barcelona’s front three, Raphinha has accrued 4.77 progressive passes per 90. Of the rest, only Salah has racked up a rate of over 4 progressive passes per 90, while Vinicius (3.11) and Mbappe (3.85) are much less tempted to make such attempts, it seems.
Vinicius Jr, Salah, Mbappe, Raphinha - 24/25 Creation Stats
Metric
xA (expected assists)
Passes attempted per 90
Pass completion (%)
Progressive passes per 90
Shot-creating actions per 90
Miscellaneous Statistics
Vinicius excels with the ball at his feet
It was about time that Vinicius, who has been a constant terror for the Santiago Bernabeu-based outfit for seven years now, stepped up to the plate: and it’s in the dribbling department that he does – but is anyone really that shocked? He’s an absolute demon!
In terms of progressive carries, successful take-ons and carries into the final third per 90, there are very few footballers on planet earth who could rival the tricky Brazilian, widely regarded as one of the best wingers in world football.
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His progressive carry rate of 6.48 per 90 is only rivalled by that of Mbappe (4.49), while the case is the same for his 3.11 successful take-ons per 90 (Mbappe’s is 2.39). Lastly, he has carried the ball into the final third 2.97 times per 90 this term – a tally that stands above the rest.
Raphinha, however, tops the ball recoveries per 90 and touches per 90 metrics, perhaps highlighting his front-footedness when trying to win the ball back and being involved in much of his side’s forward-thinking play, especially compared to the other three.
Vinicius Jr, Salah, Mbappe, Raphinha - 24/25 Miscellaneous Stats
Metric
Progressive carries per 90
Successful take-ons per 90
Carries into final third per 90
Ball recoveries per 90
Touches per 90
Conclusion
So, who's the real leader of the pack?
The very fact that Vinicius, 24, snubbed the Ballon d’Or ceremony last time out after finding out that Rodri was going to win surely makes the 37-cap Brazil international the leader of the pack but, in our eyes, Mbappe is Real Madrid’s chief contender.
Both sides from Spain are still in contention to win the Champions League while it’s a three-horse (including Atletico Madrid) race for the La Liga crown – so who wins the 2025 Ballon d’Or may solely depend on which side reigns supreme in either competition.
Don’t rule out Raphinha. Not even accounted for ahead of the 2024/25 campaign getting underway, his influence – thanks to his combination of firepower and trickery on the winger – on La Blaugrana and their aspirations cannot be swept under the rug.
Comparison-1
What goes against Salah’s favour is the fact that Liverpool, due to losing via a penalty shootout to Paris Saint-Germain, are no longer playing in the Champions League. Europe’s top table holds so much weight and, as such, the remaining trio have more chance.
That’s not disputing that his goal record could steamroll the rest of the fierce competition – but at this point, it seems like it’s Mbappe’s accolade to lose. After a tricky start to life in the Spanish capital, he’s firing on all cylinders like he’s got a point to prove.
All statistics per FBref and Sofascore - correct as of 14/03/25