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Escalating tensions between the US and Canada are evoking South Park
Trump’s trade wars are quickly proving less than helpful to his allies on the global Right
Like Eric Cartman, Donald Trump is volatile and must be carefully navigated
For transgressive teenagers of the middle 2000s, the film ‘South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut’ had everything. There were constant fart gags, an oracular clitoris and – thepièce de résistance – an abusive gay relationship between Saddam Hussein and the devil. But all of that is ultimately window dressing to a war that breaks out between the US and Canada, after enraged American parents lobby their government to declare war after their children are corrupted by lewd Canadian cartoons.
Of course, what made this funny was its absurdity. Obviously the US would never be militarily antagonistic towards its (largely) English-speaking next-door neighbour. Well, stranger than fiction and all that. Here we are with a reality-TV star in the White House for his second term and he is talking about absorbing Canada into the US as the nation’s 51st state. Only recently,Donald Trump taunted former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau by addressing him as ‘Governor Trudeau’. Very droll.
This comes as Trump’s tariff policies have ramped up the tension between the two countries. Trump had initially promised 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada – punishing the former for its failure to stem migration flows and the latter for insufficiently controlling the traffic of fentanyl over its border. For the Canadians, this 25% was to become 50% after the province of Ontario threatened a retaliatory 25% charge on the electricity it sends to certain Northern states in the US. Anyhow, Ontario’s governor stood down and the original figure is back on the table, although, thanks to a last-minute reprieve from Trump, most of the duties are not due to come into effect until April 2.
All this has turned Canadian politics on its head. Until recently, it looked as though the ruling Liberal Party was on the brink of collapse. Trudeau resigned his leadership in early January after presiding over an administration marred by high taxes, inflation and empty woke posturing, leaving Mark Carney, the former Bank of England governor and architect of its quantitative easing strategy, to take the reins. Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievere, the high-energy leader of the Canadian Conservatives, soared in the polls with an**optimistic vision** that appealed to voters young and old.
Alas, Trump’s tariffs and threats of invasion have turned Canadians off the Right, leaving Poilievre’s Tories**only one point ahead** of the Liberals.
It’s not an isolated example: Trump’s trade wars are quickly proving less than helpful to his allies on the global Right.
Poilievre, who could have been a useful ally for the Trump administration, has now called for Canada to match the tariffs imposed by the US. In the UK, after bragging about our**unique position** when it comes to our trading relationship with the Americans, it seems we too are not immune to tariffs. The President’s targeting of steel and aluminium imports means that UK producers will feel the pinch, prompting Keir Starmer to claim that ‘all options are on the table’ when it comes to our response. While Kemi Badenoch has yet to comment on this development, it might be difficult to maintain her**previous claim** that Trump will be a ‘force for good in the world’ if his presidency damages the UK economy. And as for Nigel Farage…
In the short term, we and the Canadians have a couple of options. One is to respond with counter-measures of our own. Understandably, this is what Canada seems keen on, with Carney vowing to win the trade war.
We in Britain could follow suit, but this would carry extreme risks for our negotiating platform in the long-term, as a nation impacted by Trump’s actions, but not (yet) directly in his line of fire. Not to mention how costly it would be for British consumers.
What would make greater sense to continue to leverage our favourable status with the US to ensure that we don’t meet the same fate as the Europeans and the Canadians.
Thinking further ahead, where should we – particularly those on the Right – look to for friends if the Americans don’t share our interests? As Andrew Lilico**wrote in CapX** this week, it might be time to revive an old acronym: CANZUK. This stands for an alliance between Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the UK. Despite not having formalised this arrangement, progress has been made in strengthening these ties. Free trade agreements have been signed, security deals have been struck and life sciences accords have been arranged.
With Trump at the helm in the States, talking seriously about a formal arrangement might not be a bad idea. Such an alliance might not constitute a global power on the scale of the US, but it would at least be a serious competitor.
To return to South Park for a moment, Trump is best compared to the character Eric Cartman. Funny? Yes. Popular? Among his sycophants. Reliable? Not quite. Both are stars of their respective shows – Cartman as the tubby and profane protagonist of a hit cartoon and Trump as leader of the free world. But that doesn’t mean they are the only players.
When it comes to dealing with Trump, for us and the Canadians, total loyalty or launching all-out trade wars are not the only options.
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Joseph Dinnage is Deputy Editor of CapX.