The EU is finding ways to unlock spending - with new orders for land vehicles, ammunition and explosives
BRUSSELS – Europe can be sleepy but Donald Trump has stirred it into action.
Long accustomed to relying on America for military protection, European countries are now scrambling to fortify themselves as the US President courts Russia, undercuts the Nato alliance and threatens trade wars.
It may be too early to know if Europeans will succeed in forging their own defences, but in this new, uncertain era, one outcome is clear: they will have to buy more weapons. Lots more.
Countries have announced plans to raise their budgets, with many – including Britain – looking to increase defence spending from the previous target of 2 per cent of GDP to 3 per cent and above.
The European Union, which had long held back from engaging in defence, is now finding ways to unlock spending.
Von der Leyen last week announced an €800bn (£670bn) defence spree, while Germany’s incoming chancellor Friedrich Merz wants Berlin to spend €500 billion to rearm.
EU institutional barriers are breaking down, with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s plan for a “coalition of the willing” bringing in from the wider European fold.
How will Europe decide what to spend their defence budgets on?
The short answer is everything – but in a smarter, more coordinated manner.
The Commission is set to publish a long-awaited White Paper on defence next week that calls for vast spending to deter Russia and support Ukraine as the US pulls back.
The paper, due to be presented to EU leaders at a summit in Brussels on Thursday, backs weapons production within the bloc and “like-minded third-country companies,” encouraging joint purchases of arms, financing joint defence projects, and focusing on key areas where the bloc has a capacity shortfall like air defence and military mobility.
A Covid approach to buying up arms
National governments would still decide what to buy, but a common EU purchase – based on the EU’s joint procurement for Covid-19 vaccines during the pandemic – would overcome the issues surrounding the continent’s fragmented defence market, with high prices for the same overlapping products.
“It’s not about just spending more, but spending better, together and European,” said Andrius Kubilius, the EU’s first-ever Defence Commissioner. “Focus on joint procurement, bridge civil and military R&D, leverage deep tech. Work on priority defence capabilities, military mobility.”
BRUSSELS, BELGIUM - MARCH 6: French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attend an emergency summit with European Union leaders to discuss Ukraine and security issues, chaired by European Council President Antonio Costa, in Brussels, Belgium, on March 6, 2025. (Photo by Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attended an emergency summit with European Union leaders to discuss Ukraine and security issues last week (Photo: Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu via Getty Images)
According to EU figures, in the year between June 2022 and June 2023, 78 per cent of member state procurement went to non-EU suppliers, with 63 per cent of that accounted for by the US.
And given the US’s fast-fading reliability, there is even a mood to junk American contracts: this week, Portugal cancelled plans to buy Lockheed Martin-built F-35, the world’s most advanced fighter jet, as it looks to replace their F-16s with European fighters, with Sweden expected to follow suit.
“US weapons have become toxic, just as Europeans are making plans to spend hundreds of billions on arms procurement,” says Janis Kluge, from SWP, a Berlin-based research institute.
American weapons ‘risk’ forcing Europe to step up
The move to distance Europe from the US has been exacerbated by the political support from Washington figures – like US Vice President JD Vance and tech billionaire Elon Musk – for far-right political parties in Europe.
But there are also practical reasons to stop buying American.
“Buying American weapons is a real risk to European security at this point due to political interference. Actually, it’s an issue to anyone in the world relying on top US military equipment,” says Guntram Wolff from Bruegel, a Brussels-based think-tank.
The shift should herald a bonanza for Europe’s defence groups – if they can step up.
New explosives, tanks and air defence
These include Germany’s Rheinmetall, France’s Dassault and Thales, Italy’s Leonardo, and Sweden’s Saab.
There have been-new orders for land vehicles, ammunition and munitions from Britain’s BAE Systems, for Finnish-Norwegian government-owned ammunition manufacturer Nammo, and for explosives and propellants suppliers UK’s Chemring and France’s Eurenco.
When it comes to air defence and missile systems, there will likely be switches from the US-made Patriot system to SAMP-T missiles, made by Eurosam, a joint venture between pan-European missile champion MBDA and Thales.
In surveillance and reconnaissance, if Musk’s Starlink becomes unavailable, Eutelsat, the French satellite operator and owner of OneWeb, could provide additional satellite connectivity in Ukraine.
The push is making use of previously abandoned industrial sites. In February, Franco-German company KNDS took over a plant in Saxony from Alstom, a French trainmaker, to build Leopard 2 tanks and Boxer armoured vehicles. European defence stocks have rallied so much that Rheinmetall has overtaken high-flying luxury names like LVMH.
All this may take time to fully realise: analysis from Bloomberg Intelligence estimates it could be more than 10 years for European Nato members to bolster their defence sectors.
But it is starting, and it will change Europe’s entire military-industrial complex.