When Arsenal kick off against Chelsea on Sunday it will have been 85 days since Bukayo Saka last played a game. In that time he has missed 18 matches in all competitions. Arsenal lost four of those. In the 24 he had played before injury they were beaten just twice.
The team's success with or without is not massively different but with the margins so small, it is telling. Win percentage drops from 58.3 per cent with him to 55 per cent without him. The draws remain relatively similar. When the 2-0 defeat away to Bournemouth (prior to this injury) is added in, it is still noticeable that only one of the league losses was with Saka in the team.
As Martin Odegaard struggles to find his best form and Kai Havertz's season-ending hamstring blow leaves Mikel Arteta to use Mikel Merino up front, it is Saka's creativity which is most seriously missed. He is a match-winner and a game-changer on a scale that nobody else in the squad can currently match.
When Saka returns there will not be as much to compete for. In the 85 days between going off at Crystal Palace and watching what he, his manager, and his teammates hope will be his last match on the sidelines, Arsenal have seen their title challenge pick up and fade, their FA Cup campaign end before it began, and Carabao Cup hopes thwarted.
It is conjecture to try and decide whether any of this would have been different with Saka. He alone is not enough to take the performances from where they have been to what is needed to be victorious on all fronts. He is often the spark when one is most needed, though.
It is debatable whether Saka being fit would have changed any of this. Combining the injuries to Gabriel Jesus, Odegaard, Ben White, and Havertz - not to mention Gabriel Martinelli in the past month - and it needs more than one plaster to heal.
The wait to see how Arsenal fare with Saka is nearly over. Perhaps what makes this all the more exciting is that when Saka does come back, Arsenal's season somewhat starts again but with an uber focus.
There is a sprint finish with a rolling endpoint. Saka's return is likely to coincide with the Champions League quarter-finals. Real Madrid visit north London on April 8 and then host Arsenal one week later.
Given the title race is over and Arteta has his side sitting extremely comfortably ahead of the top five battle - even a defeat to Chelsea on Sunday won't truly drag them into that scrap with an eight-point buffer to Newcastle United in sixth - it is now all eyes on Europe. Saka will be in the mix again at the ideal moment.
Obviously it would have been preferable to have him throughout but Arsenal must make do. "He's getting closer, he's stepping up and making a very good progress, I would say," Arteta told reporters on Friday. "So, let's see when we start to throw him in with the team, how he reacts and how fit he can get quickly."
Saka is not part of the England squad selected by Thomas Tuchel for the upcoming fixtures in World Cup qualifying. That is no surprise as he continues to recover and work towards on-pitch training.
Bukayo Saka of Arsenal during a training session
Bukayo Saka of Arsenal during a training session (Image: Arsenal FC via Getty Images)
It will give him another two weeks to prepare and to get up to speed. When club football returns in April it will surely be with a view to the Champions League that Arsenal plan around Saka. Their season is down to 180 minutes (and possibly more) against Madrid. That is only three games away.
Saka certainly misses one of those but could be in a position to feature at home to Fulham on April 1. It is then a trip to Everton before the home quarter-final leg.
It is feasible that Arsenal are now one game away from having not only their most important attacking player back but also their strongest XI available again. It will not get any better than this.
Arteta must make full use of this reality if Saka's season is to have a meaningful goal into May. He has waited three months for this moment and cannot let it slip.
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Arsenal Manager Mikel Arteta, Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard and Gabriel Jesus with the Arsenal Therapy Dog Win during the Arsenal Men's team group shoot at London Colney on September 18, 2023
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