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Seven years later, buildings damaged in the 2017 Kermanshah earthquake remain in ruins
Following two moderate earthquakes measuring 3.0 and 3.3 magnitude in Javadabad, south of Tehran, on March 14, Iranian experts have issued urgent warnings about the risk of a catastrophic earthquake in the capital.
Ali Beytollahi, a member of the regime’s Road, Housing, and Urban Development Research Center, stated: “All of Tehran’s fault lines are active.” He warned that “micro-earthquakes are clear indicators of tectonic stress, signaling the potential for much stronger seismic activity.”
Seismologist Fariborz Nateqi-Elahi emphasized that Tehran is at imminent risk of a 7.0 magnitude or higher earthquake, stating: “A major earthquake in Tehran is not a question of ‘if’ but ‘when.’ The delay in its occurrence only increases the risk.”
A recent report by Nournews, run by the regime’s Supreme National Security Council, highlighted the inevitability of a powerful earthquake striking Tehran, stating that such an event is “not a distant possibility but a definite reality that will occur sooner or later.”
#Iran : Absent Reliable Earthquake Crisis Management, #Iranians Can Only Pray To Be Spared Another National Catastrophe https://t.co/k2Jo0Y2oOK
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) April 3, 2022
Tehran sits on multiple active fault lines, including the Robat Karim fault, the Rey fault, and the North Tehran fault. The Robat Karim fault, which spans 90 kilometers, was identified as the likely cause of the recent tremors. Experts warn that a rupture along these fault lines could lead to mass casualties and infrastructural devastation.
Despite repeated warnings, Iranian authorities have failed to implement necessary earthquake preparedness measures, leaving the capital highly vulnerable. According to official data, over 2.5 million people live in dilapidated structures across 4,420 hectares of Tehran, areas most susceptible to collapse in a major quake.
Iran has experienced several catastrophic earthquakes in the past. The 2003 Bam earthquake, which struck at 6.6 magnitude, killed over 34,000 people and destroyed 95% of the city’s buildings. Similarly, the 2017 Kermanshah earthquake, measuring 7.3 magnitude, left 620 people dead and more than 9,000 injured.
Watch and judge how the regime in #Iran has been handling the aftermath of the #earthquake that occurred in Khoy, West Azerbaijan province pic.twitter.com/yP4LoXXtcM
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) February 15, 2023
Given Tehran’s high population density, poor infrastructure, and lack of emergency preparedness, experts fear that a 7.0 magnitude quake could result in over 6 million casualties.
Despite these alarming warnings, the Iranian regime has diverted resources away from disaster preparedness, instead prioritizing regional military expansion and regional warfare. Critics argue that systemic corruption, poor urban planning, and the absence of crisis management strategies have turned Tehran into a ticking time bomb.
As state-affiliated experts continue to sound the alarm, the question remains whether Iranian authorities will take urgent action before disaster strikes or leave Tehran’s residents to face the consequences of a long-overdue seismic catastrophe.