Welcome to the latest Bills Mailbag. The start of free agency is always one of the busiest weeks on the NFL calendar, so let’s get right to your questions …
Phil asks: How would you explain Brandon Beane’s fascination for using precious cap space to sign mediocre wide receivers like Deonte Harty in 2023 ($6.5 million per year), Curtis Samuel in 2024 ($8 million per year), and now Joshua Palmer in 2025 ($12 million per year)? To say nothing of Dawson Knox in 2022 ($13 million per year).
Jay: Let’s take a look at the wide receivers who have been signed thus far in free agency. In terms of average annual value, the two receivers to sign for more than Palmer thus far are Davante Adams with the Rams ($22 million) and Cooper Kupp with the Seahawks ($15 million). The Giants re-signed Darius Slayton at the same $12 million average annual value that Palmer got. After that, Dyami Brown got $10 million on a one-year deal from the Jaguars. If you know who that is, you’re a big NFL fan. Nobody else got more than $6 million in average annual value.
People are also reading…
Vice grip (copy)
New Bills receiver Joshua Palmer, right, received a three-year contract with a $12 million average annual value. Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News
The point here, Phil, is that the market was not overflowing with attractive options at wide receiver. I didn’t think Adams and Kupp were great fits here. It remains to be seen if Palmer is, but he’s known as a great route runner who gets separation. That’s something the Bills sorely lacked last year in their receiver room. It’s fair to criticize the signings of Harty and Samuel (so far) because they haven’t produced the desired results, but that doesn’t mean Beane should stop pursuing players at the position in free agency. Let’s see how Palmer does before we criticize the signing. Let's remember, too, that Beane signed both John Brown and Cole Beasley as free agents, and they both proved to be great pickups.
Hammond asks: Speaking just as a fan, if you added Michael Hoecht to the defense with the four regular defensive linemen, could you have him replace a linebacker or even the nickelback to present a formidable front line? If so, which situations would call for that – goal-line stands? Third and long? The Baltimore games when you have to defend Derrick Henry?
Analysis: Michael Hoecht gives Bills more upside as backup edge rusher
Sports reporter Mark Gaughan talks to some retired NFL stars who followed Hoecht's career closely with the Rams and offers an analysis of what Hoecht might bring to the Bills.
Jay: He could absolutely replace a linebacker in certain packages. That would be in situations that the Bills want a heavier lineup on the field, so think at the goal line or on short-yardage plays. It’s a stretch to think he would replace Taron Johnson, but Hoecht has been used at times in coverage. My colleague, Mark Gaughan, wrote a solid analysis of the versatility that Hoecht will bring to the defense. He’s a chess piece that coach Sean McDermott hasn’t always had on his defense.
GDW asks: With the Bills’ smallish defensive line, is it time to target a defensive tackle along the lines of Ted Washington in the draft? Michigan's Kenneth Grant is 6-foot-3 and 330 pounds. He would be an excellent choice. He is a strong force against the run and puts needed pressure on the quarterback. According to most mock drafts, Grant should go from picks 10-25, so Brandon Beane would have to trade up (which he has shown in the past he has no problem doing). Beane has the extra draft picks to pull this off. Agree or not?
Jay: In my GM for a Day column this year, I had the Bills taking Grant with pick No. 30. That’s where CBS Sports has him ranked as a prospect. Of course, that doesn’t mean he’ll be available at this point, but you’re right that Beane has shown a willingness to be aggressive in the first round of the draft if there is a player he likes. I would totally be on board with the selection of Grant. The Bills need to add a big body to the middle of their defense, and Grant fits the bill. The problem with doing mock drafts when the Bills pick so late is it’s difficult to project who will be on the board at that time. If he is there, Grant would check a lot of boxes.
Former University at Buffalo linebacker Shaun Dolac puts on show at Pro Day
Former University at Buffalo linebacker Shaun Dolac was thrilled with how he tested during the Bulls' Pro Day.
Sam Ruggiero asks: Would the Bills consider consensus All-American and local University at Buffalo prospect Shaun Dolac as a draft pick? What round do you or the draft gurus think he might be drafted? He supposedly had a fabulous pro day!
Jay: Sure, he’s very much a draft prospect. I expect he’ll be chosen on Day 3, somewhere late in the draft. The level of production that he had last year at UB should lead to some team giving him a chance. If Dolac goes undrafted, he’ll almost certainly be signed as a rookie undrafted free agent. That’s the path that Joe Andreessen took to go from UB to the NFL with the Bills, as did both Cam Lewis and Ja’Marcus Ingram. The Bills know all about Dolac and what he can do, so it wouldn’t shock me if he ended up with them.
Jeff Miller asks: Now that we signed defensive end Joey Bosa, and, of course, we never quit looking, is the main focus now on a wide receiver? Thinking of the signing of Bosa, along with all the re-signings we’ve made, I just keep thinking: “Egads! What’s happening with the salary cap?” For example, Bosa’s contract is twice what we saved by releasing Von Miller. Is guaranteed money absolute? Even something terrible like domestic violence, or risky activities like skydiving or running with the bulls in Pamplona?
Jay: There are banned activities in player contracts for dangerous activities like the ones you mentioned. Guarantees on contracts can be voided if players violate the league’s personal conduct policy. The Bills’ biggest remaining needs in my mind are a big defensive tackle, a cornerback and a wide receiver. Of those, I’d say cornerback is the biggest hole in the starting lineup with Rasul Douglas unsigned. Another receiver would be nice, particularly one with speed to threaten defenses deep. Finally, when it comes to the salary cap, keep in mind that a lot of the contract extensions the Bills signed players to actually lowered their cap hit for the 2025 season. There will be ramifications down the road to these deals, but the ever-rising salary cap should help.
Brenda asks: Now that Von Miller is off the playing roster, do you think there is a scenario where Brandon Beane brings Miller back to work in the front office? I've heard Miller say how Beane has spent time mentoring him about his desire to eventually become an NFL general manager. Could there be a mentor/mentee relationship here and also an opportunity for Miller to offer guidance to the guys on defense?
Jay: Miller was clear at the end of the season that he wants to continue playing. I expect he’ll explore every option before he makes the jump to a scouting or front-office role. That could mean signing with a team during training camp if there was a serious injury that left them in a bind. If Miller can’t find another playing opportunity for next year, I’d expect that he might want to take a break from football to spend time with his kids and recharge. To your point, Miller has made it clear he’d like to have a career in the game when he’s done playing, so it’s certainly possible the Bills keep him in mind for some kind of role in the future.
Greg Nichols asks: Given everything known about Mack Hollins, I figured there was about a 90% chance he would be signed to return for 2025. Can you find out the why behind letting him go?
Bills lose receiver Mack Hollins to division rival Patriots
It's one receiver in and another one out for the Buffalo Bills. Wide receiver Mack Hollins has agreed to a two-year contract with the New England Patriots, according to a report Monday evening from NFL Network.
Jay: I took your question right to the source, Greg, and Beane’s answer is that the Bills were interested in bringing back Hollins. The GM then said that’s probably a better question for Mack, which indicates that it was the player’s decision to leave. Hollins is certainly a free sprit and he’s been an NFL nomad. Who knows, maybe he’ll walk to New England barefoot. Seriously, though, Hollins’ contract with the Patriots, which contains an average annual value of $4.2 million, is probably more than the Bills would want to spend for a fourth or fifth receiver on the depth chart. However, given his contributions on the field (31 catches, 378 yards, five touchdowns) and the presence he was in the locker room, I’m in agreement with you, Greg, that it’s a bit of a surprise that he moved on.
Blaine Rush asks: I don’t buy that because where we finish, we can’t have a successful draft class. Kansas City and Philadelphia seem to do OK. Maybe it’s the general manager who can’t seem to have success?
Jay: Beane has to own some big misses at the top of the draft. He did that Friday when discussing his trade of Kaiir Elam to the Cowboys. The Bills traded up for Elam, and sunk significant time into developing him over the past three seasons, but it didn’t work. The coaches simply did not trust him on the field. More recently, tight end Dalton Kincaid regressed in his second season, partially due to injury. Keon Coleman had an uneven rookie season, and the team was clear at the end of it that they weren’t satisfied with how he returned from injury. Those are the last three top picks of Beane’s respective draft classes. No question, he’s got to get more out of his early-round picks, starting this year.
While that is true, we also should not ignore his home runs in the draft. He landed Christian Benford in the sixth round. James Cook has been a great pick late in the second round. Terrel Bernard and Spencer Brown, both chosen in the third round, have been very good players. Beane is like every GM in the NFL, he’s got hits and misses on his draft résumé. The same is true for Brett Veach in Kansas City and Howie Roseman in Philadelphia. In 2022, the Chiefs took receiver Skyy Moore in the second round. He had three targets last year in his third NFL season. In 2020, the Eagles took receiver Jalen Reagor in the first round, and he’s on his fourth NFL team. Those examples can be found with any team. Beane is aware that he needs to continually draft well, because restocking the roster with players on affordable rookie contracts is the best way to sustain success.
John in Wheatfield asks: Just an observation, but I think that I found the winner in free agency. It looks like it was Nike. With the number of high-profile players changing teams, I can’t imagine the number of new jerseys that will be sold as fans look to rep their favorite players.
Jay: It’s one thing when a player changes teams. If fans want to buy a new jersey because of that, go for it. Rams receiver Puka Nacua is changing his number from 17 to 12 with Adams joining the team. That’s tough for any Rams fans (they exist, right?) who bought a Nacua jersey. I’ve always thought in that case, the team should do something to take care of fans who suddenly have an obsolete jersey.
Thank you for all the questions this week! As a reminder, they can be submitted via X to @JaySkurski or by email to jskurski@buffnews.com.
0 Comments
Get in the game with our Prep Sports Newsletter
Sent weekly directly to your inbox!