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And it could get worse for those wanting team to be close to bottom of standings.
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Published Mar 15, 2025 • Last updated 4 minutes ago • 3 minute read
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Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes reacts to a foul called in favor of the Utah Jazz during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Friday, March 14, 2025, in Salt Lake City. Photo by Rob Gray /AP
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About 10 days ago, we predicted the Toronto Raptors would not be at the bottom of the NBA’s standings for long. An absurdly easy schedule and the fact the team had lots of hungry youngsters fighting for their NBA futures didn’t exactly make it a tough call.
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Of course, we also said about two months ago, after the first five wins in six games run of the Darko Rajakovic Raptors era, that the Toronto tank was probably fine. Oops, can’t win them all in the prediction business apparently.
A brutal start to the season schedule-wise and a run of injuries helped push Toronto into the bottom 4 of the standings. The team was 8-31 on Jan. 11, neck-and-neck for the worst record in the entire NBA with the likes of Washington, Utah and Charlotte at the time. But a 16-12 run since, including wins in 6-of-7 following Friday’s wipeout of the not even pretending to try Jazz, has put Toronto in a tough spot.
Everyone knows the franchise wants to be in the sweepstakes for the top pick (Duke’s Cooper Flagg), or at least a crack at the Top 4. But the players don’t care and are playing their behinds off and gelling, no matter which key Raptors get rested for entire games or large portions of them (the team’s best offensive player Brandon Ingram, who sprained his ankle in early December, doesn’t even play at all, which national writers down south have started to take notice of. Utah just got fined $100,000 for not playing its top scorer, and other teams are reportedly being investigated for their tanking strategies, so it’s possible Toronto might get pressured to debut Ingram soon, though that’s just our speculation).
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Whether Toronto wants to tank or not, it isn’t happening. There’s only 15 games left. The four worst teams will not be caught by the Raptors, though it’s still mathematically possible if the Raptors only win a couple more games the rest of the way and the terrible teams start winning every game (hence, not happening). Philadelphia and Brooklyn both need extra lottery balls far more than the Raptors do, given the state of their franchises (the Sixers must finish bottom 6 to keep their pick, otherwise it goes to Oklahoma City while the Nets traded all kinds of draft capital to Houston to get their 2025 and 2026 first rounders back). Both sat two games worse than Toronto (but having played one fewer game).
Two months ago, Toronto seemed a great bet to have the 4-6th best lottery odds. The record was terrible, Immanuel Quickley was still hurt, more injuries appeared to be a lock given how many had piled up during the season and the previous one and there wasn’t much separation with the other bad teams, other than Washington. Now, it’s possible they take a run at the play-in tournament, or fall short but end up with just the 9-11th best lottery odds.
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Think that sounds crazy? Consider San Antonio, currently the NBA’s eighth-worst team, has only three more wins than Toronto, and has lost its two all-stars, Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox, plus head coach Gregg Popovich for the rest of the season. San Antonio has the sixth-hardest remaining schedule, which likely means many losses, and also has two games still against Toronto (including what should be a wacky season finale April 13). Those could be massive for both franchises lottery-wise.
Portland is only four wins up on Toronto and also has two games left against the Raptors, including Sunday in Oregon. The Blazers appeared to have finally figured things out, with 11 wins in 16 games, but then promptly dropped five straight heading into the meeting with Toronto.
Chicago is also only four wins up on the Raptors (but had played one fewer game than Portland, before Saturday). Miami is only five wins up. Those are the clubs in the East jockeying for the last play-in spots.
Even Phoenix is only seven wins ahead of Toronto and has the toughest remaining schedule of any team.
This is going to be an agonizing final month for Toronto’s front office and for the segment of Raptors fans that has embraced tanking.
@WolstatSun
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