Russia has dispersed its vast collection of nuclear weapons - including ICBMs, submarines, and bombers - at military bases across the country, analysts believe
President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine to pressure the West over its military and diplomatic support for Kyiv since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
As part of this nuclear pressure campaign, Russia has raised the alert level of its nuclear arsenal, tested and deployed new nuclear capabilities, and suspended participation in a key nuclear arms control treaty with the US.
While analysts believe these weapons have not yet been used on the battlefield, this offers little reassurance to European allies, who are growing increasingly concerned about their ability to defend against Russian aggression.
French President Emmanuel Macron has said France will consider extending the protection of its nuclear arsenal to allies, while cautioning that Europe must be prepared for the possibility that the United States may not “remain by our side”.
Europe is “entering a new era” and it would be “foolish to remain a spectator in this world of danger,” Macron said in a live broadcast last week.
Besides Russia, France and the United Kingdom are the only two nuclear powers on the European continent.
Germany’s incoming Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has stated he will discuss nuclear weapons sharing with France and Britain, while Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, has also pledged to “reach for opportunities related to nuclear weapons”.
In this grab taken from a handout footage released by the Kremlin on March 12, 2025, Russia's President Vladimir Putin Putin visits a command point for the Kursk group of troops involved in the counteroffensive in the Kursk region, amid the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict. (Photo by Handout / KREMLIN.RU / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / Kremlin.ru / handout" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS (Photo by HANDOUT/KREMLIN.RU/AFP via Getty Images)
Vladimir Putin visits a command point for the Kursk group of troops involved in the counteroffensive in Kursk, which was taken by Ukraine last year (Photo: Kremlin.ru/AFP/Getty)
Alicia Sanders-Zakre, policy and research coordinator at the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, described plans to expand the role of nuclear weapons in Europe in order to shore up defence against Putin as “very concerning”.
“These weapons really have global security implications and could never be used without a massive humanitarian crisis,” she said.
But Europe is scrambling to plug the hole in its defences left behind by Donald Trump withdrawing military aid and support for Ukraine.
At the same time, Russia has overhauled its defense industry since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and significantly outpaces its European allies in military spending.
How big is Russia’s nuclear arsenal?
The International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Military Balance Report estimates that Russia is spending $146bn, or 6.7 per cent of its GDP, on defence.
Moscow has been boosting its capabilities and continues to develop new weapons.
“Russia remains the US rival with the most capable and diverse nuclear forces,” states a US nuclear policy review update from January.
“Today it is unique in the combination of strategic and non-strategic nuclear forces it fields that enables nuclear employment ranging from large-scale attacks on the [US] homeland to limited strikes in support of a regional military campaign [in the Euro-Atlantic region].”
Russia has around 4,380 operational nuclear warheads, according to the Federation of American Scientists, but only 1,710 are “deployed” – or ready for use – supported by various strategic delivery systems.
These include 326 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), 12 ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) with 192 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and 58 strategic bombers, according to estimates cited by the US Congressional Research Service.
The US State Department assessed in 2024 that the Russian military possesses between 1,000 and 2,000 nuclear warheads for nonstrategic systems, while nongovernmental organisations estimate approximately 1,550 warheads for these weapons.
Russia’s nuclear weapon storage sites are spread across the vast country according to research by Russianforces.org
The US has deployed a similar number of nuclear warheads, with the total estimated to be approximately 1,770.
Russia has not exchanged official data with the US about the structure of its strategic nuclear forces since withdrawing from the New Start treaty in 2023, according to the Congressional Research Service. However, Moscow has stated it would continue to abide by the treaty’s limits, maintaining roughly the same level as the US strategic nuclear forces.
Russia’s modern nuclear weapons on par with Western arsenals
Some of Russia’s protocols for managing its nuclear weapons date back to Soviet times – but the weapons themselves are modern and sophisticated, with further advancements reportedly in development.
Analysts believe the weapons part of Russia’s enormous nuclear arsenal are fully operational and stored and maintained in the same way as they are by Western nuclear powers.
When a warhead is manufactured, it typically has a lifespan of around 10 years. Once it reaches the end of its service life, it is dismantled, said Pavel Podvig, head of the research project Russian Nuclear Forces and a Senior Researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (Unidr).
“Most warheads are actually not very old,” he said, adding they are “constantly renewed”.
In terms of the safety and security of the arsenal, Russia’s is “roughly on par with other nuclear arms states,” said Sanders-Zakre.
“Of course any country can have accidents,” she said. “There is always a risk when it comes to maintaining the weapons systems.”
Perhaps the most notable close-call historically is the Cuban missile crisis, Sanders-Zakre pointed out, when the standoff between the US and the Soviet Union could have escalated into a full-scale nuclear war.
Where are Russia’s nuclear weapons stationed?
Western analysts suggest that Russia has dispersed its nuclear forces, which include ICBMs, submarines, and bombers, across military bases throughout its territory.
Most of those facilities are believed to be located along Russia’s eastern and southern borders, although there are additional storage sites.
The non-governmental Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces project, which provides information on weapons, arms control and disarmament, estimates there are about a dozen national-level facilities and additional base-level facilities.
They are serviced by the 12th Main (or Chief) Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defence – a highly secretive department within the ministry responsible for the safe-keeping and maintenance of nuclear weapons.
Moscow has also reportedly stationed nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave located between Nato members Poland and Lithuania.
In 2023, Moscow began deploying tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, marking the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union that Russia has stationed nuclear weapons outside its borders.
Belarus, along with former soviet states Kazakhstan and Ukraine, gave up its nuclear weapons to Russia in the 90s in exchange for security guarantees from Moscow, the US, and the UK.
The Belarusian military is closely aligned with Russia’s forces, and in 2022, Moscow used its neighbour as a staging ground for its invasion of Ukraine from the north.
Analysts have argued that Russia would not have launched its invasion if Ukraine had kept its nuclear weapons.
Will Russia ever use its nuclear weapons?
Russia – like Europe – is aware that nuclear weapons can result in catastrophic consequences, so their actual use remains highly unlikely.
They are not practical weapons of choice on the battlefield, and their role as a deterrent could ultimately become a double-edged sword, some analysts believe.
“There is this thinking that nuclear weapons are like a magic wand, that if you have them, you are safe – and that’s just not the case,” said Podvig.
“It depends on many things, and in the best case, nuclear weapons do not add to your security, and in the worst scenario, they just undermine your security, and that is the reality.
“We should be very conscious of the potentially catastrophic consequences of a nuclear exchange.
“And I think that is understood in the Kremlin as well.”
Nevertheless, the existence of a nuclear deterrent among Nato countries is becoming increasingly important in the face of rising threats from Russia – as well as from China.
The European Union has agreed to push forward with a historic rearmament that protects Ukraine and ensures it can defend itself without the help of the United States.
Leaders used an emergency EU summit in Brussels to give their broad backing to the €800bn “ReArm Europe” plan outlined by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen last week to beef up defences in the face of Russia’s aggression and to fill the gaps from an increasingly disengaged US.
While the formal summit agenda did not include discussions on specific military support for Ukraine, talk in the sidelines included a proposed European Sky Shield scheme – backed by Britain – of 120 fighter jets to protect the country from Russian attacks, as well as Macron’s offer of a French nuclear deterrent.
The UK has Trident, its continuous at-sea nuclear deterrent, but this is unlikely to be deployed against a conventional weapons attack. Instead, the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) – the blueprint for how the UK will defend itself from the growing threat from Russia and an increasingly unstable world – is expected in the spring.
Drawn up by former Nato secretary general Lord Robertson and after months of consultation with military experts and generals, it is expected to call for the UK’s homeland security – including anti-missile systems – to be beefed up amid the continuing threat from hostile states.