India’s military intelligence infrastructure faces the largest challenge in history since it has to contend with a geopolitics of security threats in the form of two nuclear-capable neighbors, China and Pakistan. With the borders tense, proxy wars, and technical surveillance on the rise, India’s Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) and Corps of Military Intelligence (CMI) are adapting at an unprecedented rate to contend with hybrid threats. This shift involves employing new technologies, realigning strategies, and enhancing interagency coordination to maintain strategic leverage. The two-front challenge of Pakistan and China compels India to adopt a multi-dimensional approach. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has enhanced its surveillance and cyber warfare capabilities, inducting advanced systems like AI-powered drones along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The recent events, such as the 2020 Galwan Valley confrontation, revealed shortfalls in real-time situational awareness. Indian intelligence is presently concentrating on PLA facility monitoring using space, security from Chinese state-sponsored hacking units such as APT41, and countering psychological operations (PSYOPS) to destabilize border towns. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), meanwhile, continues to sponsor cross-border terrorism, the most recent instance being the 2019 Pulwama attack. Indian Military Intelligence (IMI) is closely monitoring terrorism financing by hawala networks in Jammu & Kashmir, thwarting weapon smuggling using drones along the Punjab border, and neutralizing efforts at conducting radicalization campaigns against Indian youth through social media. The application of newer technologies like AI and machine learning helps analyze large amounts of data for forecasting and prevention of such attacks. India is fighting back by spending a small fortune on advanced technologies. The National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO) operates the NETRA system that uses AI to scour social media for extremist messages and intercept satellite communications. NETRA picked up over 12,000 suspicious posts in 2023 that were tracked back to Pakistani proxies. RISAT-2BR1, launched in 2022, provides all-weather surveillance of Chinese military activity on the Tibet border and terror camps at Pakistan’s Balakot to support preemptive strikes.
India is testing quantum-proof encryption for protecting military communication from Chinese decryption through agencies like the Defence Cyber Agency. Programs such as INDIGO (Indian Digital Defence Grid) will guard strategic assets. India has also enhanced Project Cheetah for inducting over 100 Heron drones along the LAC. The drones use swarm algorithms to monitor PLA incursions and provide intelligence to artillery units. This technological leap is significant in keeping up with such competitors who are also speeding up their defense hardware. Recent incidents point towards the need for action intelligence. The 2020 Galwan Valley clash awakened India’s intelligence network, and it became clear that there were communication gaps among agencies. Takeaways are the fusion of signal intelligence (SIGINT) of the NTRO with human intelligence (HUMINT) of the CMI and the deployment of tactical command posts with real-time data-sharing. This has enhanced response and decision times in times of crises by a large extent. The 2019 Balakot airstrike was an IMI accuracy success story. RAW provided geospatial intelligence about Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorist camps, and NTRO confirmed target coordinates by employing satellite imagery. The operation emphasized cross-agency coordination. Agency coordination makes intelligence actionable and leads to successful military operations. India’s intelligence apparatus has over 20 agencies, which most of the time leads to siloed efforts. Existing reforms aim to render operational rationale by creating command centers like the Defence Space Agency (DSA) and implementing coordination with the Multi-Agency Centre (MAC). DSA integrates inputs from the ISRO, NTRO, and Army Signals Corps in an effort to monitor enemy movement. The MAC, a terror counter-center, enables real-time exchange of inputs among RAW, IB, and military intelligence, foiling sophisticated conspiracies like a recent ISI plan to smuggle weapons through Nepal. India also cooperates with the U.S., Japan, and Australia in the QUAD to counter Chinese naval resistance in the Indo-Pacific. Exercises like Malabar 2024 are additive to facilitate maritime domain awareness. Not only does this cooperation strengthen India’s navy, but it also provides it with a strategic platform to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has stupendous geopolitical interests for the region.
In the years to come, challenges are holding on to talent and pushing back against China’s “gray zone” strategy. A 2024 Brookings report cited that 30% of India’s tech-savvy intelligence staff quit for private sector employment. Solutions are creating a National Intelligence University to train experts in AI and cyber warfare and paying bonuses to officers in key positions. This will retain talented staff and keep India’s intelligence agencies competitive on the international stage. To push back against China’s hybrid, non-military aggression, land grabs, cyber-attacks, and economic coercion, India is developing a Unified Hybrid Threat Response Cell to align military, diplomatic, and economic counter-responses. Indian defense contractors such as Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) are being attacked by Chinese hackers. India is using Zero-Trust Architecture for its military networks so that even if one component of the network is breached, the balance of the network is secure. India is enhancing its cyber defense system by adding AI-based systems for threat detection. These can identify and disable cyberattacks in real-time, restricting the likelihood of data breaches and keeping communications secure in the military. Further, the addition of AI to cybersecurity allows threats to be identified, facilitating action ahead of time. Together with technological advancement, India is focusing on building up its human intelligence capability. It means training more agents in competing languages like Mandarin and Urdu to gather intelligence within the field of rivals. Human intelligence remains to play a central role in lending meaning to technical intelligence, facilitating policymakers to better understand the motive and intention of adversary action. Besides, India is also seeking new alliances with nations such as France and Israel to further enhance its intelligence capability. Such alliances offer access to cutting-edge technology and learning in strategy, which further enhance India’s credentials as a regional power.
India’s military intelligence community is at a crossroads as a whole. As China and Pakistan mature in their threats, India’s investment in AI, space technology, and interagency coordination is finally beginning to yield results. The key is to continue innovating, building talent, and increasing collaboration with allies like the U.S. and Israel. As Defense Minister Rajnath Singh emphasized in 2024, “Invisible warriors of our intelligence agencies are the first line of defense.” The manner in which they do their work will determine if India can remain a step ahead of the game during a time of constant hybrid war. The Indian military intelligence’s fate would be determined by the manner in which it adapts to emerging technologies and shifting geopolitics. While quantum computing and new surveillance technology gain steam, India will have to continue pouring funds into edge technologies to get ahead of the competition. Additionally, the innovation culture of intelligence agencies will be key to finding solutions for the surprises that arise. Ultimately, the power and potential of India’s intelligence mechanism will be found in its potential to counter smart threats with promises of the nation’s security and sovereignty. While India develops, it will need to balance progress in technology with ethical concerns and ensure that processes of intelligence are conducted with dignity and respect for human rights. This balance will be invaluable to maintain public confidence and ensure India’s intelligence advantage continues to be a strategic tool in the years ahead.