forbes.com

10 Things About Weather That Confuse People

TOPSHOT-GERMANY-WEATHER-THUNDERSTORM

TOPSHOT - Lightning strikes over the countryside during a thunderstorm following high temperatures

A potent storm system moved through the country this week. By the time you read this, it will likely be moving away from the East Coast. As the storm system evolved, common weather misinterpretations or statements appeared in social media or personal discussions. I realizes that it was time to update my list of ten things that confuse the public about weather.

Screen Shot 2025-03-16 at 7.42.42 AM

Definition of tornado watch and tornado warning.NOAA

Watch and Warning

I am guessing we may fight this battle forever. Some people still confuse “watch” and “warning.” Tornado Warning, for example, requires immediate action as a tornado has been detected by weather radar or spotted. Tornado Watch means that conditions are present to produce one. Honestly, I get it. I think the terms are backwards too. Charlotte broadcast meteorologist Brad Panovich’s cupcake example below is still one of the best ways to think about the difference in terms. The National Weather Service actually issued a rare Particularly Dangerous Situation with a Tornado Watch for the southern storms this past weekend.

images

A simple way to illustrate "watch" and "warning."Brad Panovich

Hail And Warm Weather

Earlier in the week, a pop culture social media platform here in Georgia posted a video with a woman marveling at hail. The caption for the video suggested that it was odd to experience hail with temperatures at 70 degrees F. Most people know that hail is ice, but for many folks, that conveys winter or cold temperatures. After all, ice is cold. On the contrary, hail is most common in the spring and summer. With thirty years of experience as a meteorologist, I often notice that some people confuse sleet, which happens primarily in the cold season, with hail, which is associated with thunderstorms. So how are balls of ice able to form during a spring or summer thunderstorm?

MORE FOR YOU

Google Confirms Play Store App Deletion—What You Do Now

Gmail, Outlook, Apple Mail Warning—AI Attack Nightmare Is Coming True

NYT ‘Strands’ Today: Hints, Spangram And Answers For Sunday, March 16th

hail-formation-large

How hail forms.NOAA SciJinks

Forbes Daily: Join over 1 million Forbes Daily subscribers and get our best stories, exclusive reporting and essential analysis of the day’s news in your inbox every weekday.

By signing up, you agree to receive this newsletter, other updates about Forbes and its affiliates’ offerings, our Terms of Service (including resolving disputes on an individual basis via arbitration), and you acknowledge our Privacy Statement. Forbes is protected by reCAPTCHA, and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

A cumulonimbus cloud is associated with thunderstorms. They extend upward and can reach altitudes where the temperature is well below 32 degrees F. A complex set of processes involving ice, supercooled water, and strong updrafts can lead to the formation of hailstones. There is still emerging research on how hail forms so the NOAA graphic above is meant for illustrative purposes. A major field experiment called ICECHIP is being conducted this spring and summer to learn more.

Cumulonimbus over Mount Nif

IZMIR, TURKIYE - MARCH 13: A view of cumulonimbus over Mount Nif is seen from Torbali district of

Percent Chance of Rain

My colleagues and I often hear complaints about weather forecasts being wrong all of the time. In reality, they are right most of the time. It’s just easier to focus on the occasional miss rather than the larger number of correct forecasts. It’s March Madness season. Let’s say a basketball player makes 98% of his free throws over the season. He is a good shooter. However, if he misses a critical shot to get his team into the Big Dance, that is what many fans will be talking about.

Another reason people feel that way about forecasts is related to a misunderstanding of percent chance of rain. I routinely hear complaints that it rained even though there was only a 20% chance of rain. Remember, it wasn’t 0%. Additionally, probabilistic forecasts account for information over a given area. It may have absolutely rained in the neighborhood two miles away from you, even if it did not rain over your tomato garden on the deck.

Storm Forecast: Was It Accurate or Not?

Related to the point made about the tomato garden, everything is local to people. Even this morning, I saw a person post a snarky comment at legendary meteorologist James Spann about his tornado coverage in Alabama yesterday. He said that Birmingham only receiving a little drizzle and implied that all of the storm coverage was unnecessary. Spann responded, “At least ten tornadoes with multiple fatalities across Alabama yesterday and last night….” Complaints like this baffle me. There were tornado warnings in and around the Birmingham area most of Saturday. It’s almost as if this person is complaining that his house did not get hit. Unfortunately, many homes did. Everything is local to people, and that can shape how forecast accuracy is perceived.

Hurricane Cone of Uncertainty

Hurricane season is just around the corner. June 1st will be here in no time. Last year, parts of the U.S. were devastated by hurricanes such as Helene and Milton. The cone of uncertainty is often used in weather communication to the public. However, it is commonly misinterpreted. Many people believe the cone conveys that the storm must go down the center of the cone.

University of Miami weather expert Brian McNoldy points out other misinterpretations in a recent blog. He wrote, “The cone does not tell you anything about where impacts will be experienced…. Even for a perfect down-the-middle track forecast, impacts such as strong wind, heavy rain, storm surge, and tornadoes will extend beyond the cone.” Last year, the National Hurricane Center started adding watches and warnings to the cone. McNoldy says that information will be expanded inland for the 2025 season.

image

Improvements in. the cone of uncertainty in recent years.Brian McNoldy/NWS

McNoldy went on to say that the cone tells you nothing about the size of the storm or actual uncertainty with the storm forecast. He continued, “Since the size of the cone is fixed, it cannot become more narrow or broad to accommodate a more or less predictable environment.” The headline of his blog for me was, “If a hurricane is approaching and you are scrutinizing each new forecast to see if you are inside the cone or not, you are missing the point of it. It is arbitrarily chosen to be the 67% historical probability threshold... a 75% probability cone would be larger, and a 50% probability cone would be smaller.” In other words, the hurricane may ultimately make landfall near the edge of the cone, and the forecast did its job.

In many of these examples, it is easy to place blame on the public. However, my weather community must continue to find ways to meet the public where they are rather than use tools and wording only meaninful to us. The Saffir-Simpson scale used for hurricanes conveys the wind threat, but impacts associated with surge, rainfall, and tornadoes are not captured. Unfortunately, the “it’s just a category whatever" evolves from that thinking even though impacts are a more meaningful way of conveying risk.

Storm Helene Causes Massive Flooding Across Swath Of Western North Carolina

ASHEVILLE, NORTH CAROLINA - OCTOBER 03: An aerial view of flood damage wrought by Hurricane Helene

Benchmark Storms

Another thing that confuses the public is reference frames from past events. Many people have a previous hurricane, snowstorm, flood, or heatwave in their minds that informs how their response to current storms. A recent report by the National Academies revealed that “benchmark” storms of the past may not be appropriate guideposts for the current and emerging generation of extreme weather events.

Sure, you may have survived Storm X in 1968, but Storm XX in 2026 may be a different beast. It is hard to have a contempoary comparison point for Hurricane Helene or the 2021 Heat Wave in the Pacific Northwest. The scientific literature and studies have confirmed that the “DNA” of climate change is within contemporary extreme weather events.

Weather and Climate

Speaking of climate change, the concepts of “weather” and “climate” confuse people too. For example, it is amusing to get a question or post in January asking what happen to global warming since it is snowing in Ohio. Well, it’s Ohio and winter. That’s when snow happens there. Many people misunderstand that winter weather and seasons will continue even as climate changes. Seasons are governed by the tilt of the Earth as it orbits the Sun. Weather is your mood, and climate is your personality. One day (or week) of weather does not confirm or refute climate change.

hazstatcharts_2023

U.S. weather fatalities in 2023.NWS

Deadliest U.S. Weather

Tornadoes, hurricanes, and lightning are dramatic weather events. They evoke fear, awe, and often continuous coverage by the media. However, the deadliest weather each year in the U.S. is associated with extreme temperatures. In NWS data above, heat has been the dominant killer followed by flooding for the past thirty years. Other studies account for the direct and indirect impacts of extreme cold as well. Either way, extreme temperatures can be deadly, yet the public often doesn’t react to them in the same way they do a tornado or hurricane threat.

Weather Apps

I have pounded on this for months in my writing, but most people increasingly consume weather information from apps. They are convenient and a figure tap away on our phones. However, it is important to understand that information in apps is derived from the same weather observations, models, radars, and satellites that your local or national broadcaster utilizes. There is still meteorology involved. Further, I often find weather apps to be less useful in dynamic, complex or rapidly evolving weather situations. The little “Mr. Sun” emoji might be useful for planning your next golf outing, but it should not always be your anchor since it captures more static or location-dependent information. For instance, your app may show rainfall today, but that does not mean it will rain all day.

GroundhogDay2025NCEIGraphic

Grading the groundhog forecast.NOAA

Groundhogs and Almanacs

I am certain most people know this. The groundhog is a rodent not a meteorologist. It is good fun and folklore, but over the years, people have seriously asked me about the groundhog forecast for the rest of the winter. I often get comments or questions about almanacs too. Studies have shown that there is limited accuracy with both of them. My advice is to take them for what they are worth while understanding that physics, calculus, technology, and advance computer models have enabled a pretty solid weather prediction ecosystem.

Lightning

The final points of confusion are related to lighting. First, it is not spelled with an "e" when referring to the weather phenomenon. Second, lightning causes thunder. If you hear thunder, it is lightning so get off the golf course, lake or field. And for goodness sake, please don’t just sit there in a stadium either.

MLB: Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE, 23: A bolt of lightning strikes across the Anacostia river as a rainbow