The Heat, losers of seven in a row and now just 4-14 since trading Jimmy Butler, has just 15 games remaining in a regular season that now feels like an inexorable slog toward a third consecutive season in the play-in.
With the ninth-seeded Heat 1.5 games behind No. 8 Orlando and one game ahead of No. 10 Chicago, the home stretch of this Heat season has less intrigue or suspense than perhaps any other Heat season over the past decade.
But even though Miami has just one impending unrestricted free agent (Alec Burks), there is still much on the line for several Heat players, including six who can help shape looming Heat decisions by how they play during the duration of the season, including Monday night at the Knicks (7:30 p.m., ESPN, FanDuel Sun).
The six who stand out in that regard:
▪ Davion Mitchell: This has become a fascinating situation, because Miami must decide whether to release him as a way to get under the luxury tax this season; give him a June qualifying offer that would tie up money on Miami’s cap; or sign him for one year or even longer.
In his 14 starts and 16 games with the Heat, Mitchell generally has played well (8.7 points, 4.5 assists, 47.9 percent three point shooting). But if the Heat wants to preserve the ability to match outside offers for him this summer, it would need to extend a $7.8 million qualifying offer to him in June. In that scenario, that number would be on the Heat’s books until he signs with Miami or signs elsewhere. If he re-signs with Miami, the $7.8 million would be replaced by his new salary.
That $7.8 million is a big deal because it would leave the Heat only $4 million below the 2025-26 luxury tax line, barring other (likely) roster moves.
If the Heat waives him before the end of the season and his contract is picked up by another team, Miami would drop below the luxury tax line. He wouldn’t be playoff eligible elsewhere but any team claiming him off waivers would be responsible for very little salary this season and would obtain his Bird Rights.
If Mitchell plays well in the next month, what’s tricky is whether his camp will insist on a multi-year deal. In that scenario, the Heat would need a strong conviction that he’s worth the money before eating further into its 2026 cap space.
Miami, at the moment, projects to have about $43 million in space that summer, but that doesn’t include two forthcoming draft picks or Nikola Jovic, who can be a restricted free agent in 2026.
Asked if securing a multiyear deal is important to him, Mitchell said he will leave that decision to his agent but made clear that “one thousand percent, I definitely want to be here.”
▪ Duncan Robinson: After starting for the second consecutive game, Robinson was benched after going scoreless and missing three shots in Saturday’s 125-91 loss at Memphis. His final month could shape decisions in several ways.
Miami could shave its payroll by $10 million if it releases him during a 48-hour window early in the second week of July. But that would eliminate the ability to use his contract as a facilitator in a trade. Only $9.9 million of Robinson’s $19.8 million salary is guaranteed in 2025-26. That increases to a full guarantee if Miami doesn’t waive him on or before two days after the end of the early July moratorium period.
The Heat could try to trade Robinson, but there’s one complicating factor: A team acquiring Robinson between the end of the season and the deadline to guarantee his contract must have the ability to take back the full $19.8 million, but the Heat can take only $10 million back (with a bit of wiggle room.)
If Miami doesn’t trade Robinson, the issue comes down to whether the $9.9 million created under the tax line could be used on a free agent that Miami prefers to sign with a $14.1 million mid-level exception.
Also notable: Robinson can become a free agent if he terminates his contract by June 29, though it seems highly unlikely he would do that.
Robinson is averaging 11 points on 38.5 percent shooting, but his performance has had wild swings - excellent some nights but off other nights.
▪ Tyler Herro: He has done everything the Heat has asked of him, and more, for much of the season, earning an All Star berth. But the efficiency has fallen off in recent weeks.
He’s averaging 22.5 points and shooting 31.1 percent on threes since the All Star break, compared with 23.9 points and 38 percent shooting on threes before that.
The question is whether that’s enough to automatically earn a maximum extension when he becomes eligible on Oct. 1.
Herro already is locked into salaries of $31 million next season and $33 million in 2026-27, so any extension would not affect Heat cap space either of the next two offseasons.
The Heat could offer Herro a three-year, $150 million as early as Oct. 1, with a salary of $46 million in 2027-28 and $50 million and $54 million the following two seasons.
If the Heat or Herro wait until the 2026 offseason to extend him, he would be eligible for a four-year, $207 million extension through 2030-31. How Herro plays over the final weeks of the season could shape this decision.
▪ Kel’el Ware: The final weeks could determine whether Miami views him as a player they would make available only for a few in-their-prime stars, or whether he should be offered for an older star (Kevin Durant?) or a player who’s good but not an All Star.
At his best, Ware looks like a keeper; Bam Adebayo began surging offensively after Ware was inserted in the starting lineup, and Adebayo said that’s not a coincidence. But nights like Wednesday against the Clippers’ Ivica Zubak, when he was thoroughly overmatched, show that Ware must take a giant leap to be viewed as an indispensable cornerstone.
There also must be more of an impact on winning for the Heat to make him off limits for everyone except 20 something All Stars.
▪ Jaime Jaquez Jr.: He’s on the list because the Heat needs to know exactly what it has should Andrew Wiggins be moved in a trade. His minutes have increased the past two games and so have the production, albeit in losses. But the 32.2 and 30.4 shooting on threes in his first two seasons is a real concern.
His final month should help clarify whether the Heat should be willing to include him in trades for a wider swath of players, not merely very good ones.
▪ Wiggins: Aside from his 30.9 three-point shooting, the numbers have been decent since the trade (18.3 points, 4.2 rebounds). But the numbers have seemed empty at times; Miami is 4-13 when he plays, with many sharing the blame for that.
Erik Spoelstra constantly emphasizes a player’s impact on winning. There has been minimal of that so far with Wiggins. If that continues over the next month, Miami must give thought to offloading the $28.2 million and $30.2 million he’s owed the next two seasons.
Miami Herald
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Barry Jackson has written for the Miami Herald since 1986 and has written the Florida Sports Buzz column since 2002.