Kerry go to Galway next Sunday needing to win to be absolutely certain of staying in Division 1 – anything less and they will be looking nervously at results elsewhere
Waking up this morning the Kerry footballers would have been feeling pretty good about themselves. Saturday evening’s 10-point win over Armagh in Tralee was balm for the Kingdom’s soul. A little retribution for being squeezed out of last year’s All-Ireland semi-final by the Orchard county, and a welcome League win at home after earlier losses to Donegal in Killarney and to Dublin in Tralee.
More than that, though, Kerry would have figured on being a little bit closer to a possible league final and a little bit further away from the relegation zone. And that was the case… until the remaining two round 6 games were played on Sunday afternoon and everything changed.
Mayo’s 2-19 to 1-7 win away to Derry was enough to relegate the latter, while Tyrone got the win, 0-25 to 0-19, away to Donegal in Letterkenny that the Red Hand county desperately needed to keep their hope of staying in the top flight alive.
And those two results have somewhat dragged Kerry back into the relegation conversation again. Bottom line? Kerry need to go to Salthill next Sunday and beat Galway to be certain of staying up. Lose and Kerry will be frantically checking events in Healy Park and the Athletic Grounds to see how Tyrone and Armagh are doing against Dublin and Derry respectively.
Wins for the Tyrone and Armagh, coupled with a Kerry loss and it will be Jack O’Connor’s Kerry joining his former coach Paddy Tally and his Derry team in Division 2 next year.
Wins for Armagh and Tyrone and a draw for Kerry would leave the three teams on 7 points (and they could be joined on 7 points by Mayo if they were to lose to Donegal) but in either scenario it would be a three- or four-way tie so scoring difference would come into play.
As it stands, a win for Galway doesn’t automatically guarantee them a place in the league final, but given their very superior scoring difference over Dublin and Donegal heading into round 7 that a Galway will almost certainly send Padraic Joyce’s team to the March 30 decider.
The league final would seem to be between Galway, Dublin and Donegal heading into the final round of games, but a Mayo win over Donegal next Sunday would put the Connacht county in contention as long as both Galway and Dublin don’t win.
In theory, Kerry can still qualify for the final, but in addition to them beating Galway by three points or more, they would need Dublin to lose to Tyrone, and then they would be looking at scoring difference to qualify them.
As we have repeatedly pointed out, nothing is decided until everything is decided. Yes, Derry are relegated with a round still to play, but beyond that any one of Kerry, Mayo, Armagh or Tyrone could also be relegated, while any two of Galway, Dublin, Donegal, Mayo and Kerry can still qualify for the National League final.
Round 7 games
Galway v Kerry
Mayo v Donegal
Tyrone v Dublin
Armagh v Derry